My fellow managers, commissioners, and waiver-wire warriors -
We gather here tonight, not in Washington, but in the sacred war rooms of our living rooms and basements, where the smell of pizza rolls and the hum of Wi-Fi signal true democracy. This is not about policy or politics - it's about the draft board.
Over the past weeks, I have studied the people's draft rooms. I've seen the heartbreak of those who grabbed a kicker in Round 8. I've witnessed the overconfidence of those who thought "sleepers" meant drafting that one rookie wideout in Round 3. And yes, I've endured the humbling reality that mock drafts and real drafts are as different as preseason hype and December stat lines.
But I have also learned lessons worthy of this great nation of fantasy players. Lessons about patience, about discipline, and about never, ever underestimating the importance of depth at running back.
Tonight, I come before you not as a politician, but as one of you - a fantasy manager who has suffered the sting of snake drafts, the chaos of auctions, and the eternal regret of trusting a Browns wideout as my WR2.
Together, let us reflect on what we've learned so far...and prepare to march into draft season stronger, sharper, and a little more sober than the guy who thought drafting his favorite team's backup QB was a strategy.
Safe and Secure Floors in the Early Rounds
The first few rounds of your draft are about building the base for your season. The foundation should be built with weekly points that we can count on. There really isn't much to complain about here as far as talent on the board. A few observations though: I'm recommending CeeDee Lamb over Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is dealing with a minor hamstring issue and has an unproven QB under center. That doesn't mean that JJ won't put up big numbers, but Lamb doesn't have any of those risks. He's got a proven QB and remains the top option in that offense. Splitting hairs perhaps, but Lamb is simply safer in my presidential opinion.
If choosing between Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins, I'm taking Nico every time. Collins was the WR2 before his injury last year and he still remains an elite option on this offense. Similarly, if I'm faced with the choice between Ashton Jeanty and Devon Achane, I'm taking the rookie who has no real challenger for playing time, has fresh legs, and will be the focal point of this offense. I expect Jeanty to get as much work as he can handle and that translates into fantasy goodness - more so than Achane's situation.
If picking between Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, it doesn't really matter. Both are essentially wide receivers in TE spots and both are elite options, yet McBride is typically going a round later. If that's the case, feel free to pass on Bowers and grab value out of McBride if you want to invest an early round pick in TE.
These are the guys that I think are criminally underrated in those first few rounds: Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, and Kenneth Walker. If you invested early in a top flight WR or TE, you can absolutely build a roster around these guys as your RB1. All three are phenomenal options here and will be waiting for you in rounds 3-5.
The Tight End Position is Deep
Over the past few years, the TE position has been top-heavy with just one or two guys with the rest being dart throws. This year's class feels deeper. Yes, you'll still have the top guys like Bowers and McBride come off fairly early, but the guy that I'm targeting here is George Kittle. He finished last year as the TE1 and he's not slowing down at all. He's going to remain a top receiving option in that offense and is as safe a pick as they come among the position.
A tight end worth considering here is the rookie Tyler Warren. He is a potential breakout option, but he does come with some caveats like a competitive receiving room and quarterback uncertainty. What's attractive though is his versatile skill set and YAC ability giving him a legitimate chance to command targets and finish as a TE1 despite facing competition from established receivers. He's an excellent value at his ADP, potentially providing a significant return for fantasy managers.
Quarterbacks - Yes, You Can Wait
We have previously covered when to draft a quarterback, and this year's talent is pretty deep. The top five guys are going to come off the boards in the earlier rounds. These include Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. If you want one of the top five guys, you're going to have to pay for it. If you go that route, Hurts presents the best value in my opinion and is the only QB that I'd reach for at his current ADP.
If you wait on QB, you can find tremendous value on guys like Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. Fields averaged over 9 rushes per game last year and was a Top 5 QB in rush yards and touchdowns early in the season. Lawrence is in a new pass-friendly offense and should easily outperform his current ADP.
Kyler Murray seems to pop up in every draft and I've got him on several of my rosters. He finished in the Top 10 last year despite not throwing as many TD passes as we expected. His rushing workload dropped a bit as well as he tried to become more of a pocket passer. All indications are that he'll either remain similar to where he was last season or slightly exceed his projections. That's just fine with me. Where I'm drafting him, I'm still getting a Top 10 QB but much, much later in the draft. I'll continue to stock up on RBs and WRs in the interim.
Injuries To Know About
Injuries are a part of the game. We all know that, but what we don't all know is the current status of those injuries. For example, Chris Godwin is not expected to be ready for the season as he continues to rehab his ankle injury from last season. Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka has seen his ADP rise over the past two weeks and is in line for an uptick in targets. We're expecting Godwin back by October, so if you can stash him as your WR3/4, you'll be set in another month or two.
Joe Mixon has missed the offseason with a nagging foot injury, and at the time of this writing, it's not even a lock for him to play anytime soon. He's one of the few guys that I just don't want any part of this year. In a draft this morning, Mixon sat on the players list for multiple rounds with everyone passing him up until one guy timed out and got Mixon on auto-draft. Tough luck my friend.
With Mixon out, Nick Chubb presents a lot of value compared to his ADP. In fact, he's frequently going as RB4/5. He appears to have lost some of his dynamic burst and clearly isn't the same guy he was in Cleveland, but you're getting a starting RB at the end of your draft. Whether there's flex appeal there or not, there's no denying the statistical value he brings.
Although he's returned to practice, Matthew Stafford's back has largely kept him sidelined during the preseason. The uncertainty here is palpable as it's not just Stafford's fantasy value at question here. It's also that of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams - two incredible receivers that should have vaulted Stafford's ADP but hasn't. He carries added risk all year - ask any guy who's dealt with awful back pain - that can flare up at any moment. Even in SuperFlex formats, I'm fading Stafford.
Justin Jefferson is dealing with a hamstring issue from earlier this preseason. All signs point to him being ready for Week 1 so I'm not sweating this at all. In fact, he's fallen to me in multiple drafts now mid/late in the first round. I'll take that all day.
We've covered additional injuries to know about previously. Take a read and don't get surprised in the draft room.
Here's Who I'm Avoiding in 2025
First a little context: I'm not saying that these guys shouldn't be drafted at all. I'm saying that at their current ADP, I'm simply avoiding them for better options.
I've already covered Joe Mixon, but it bears repeating. I have zero shares of him and don't intend to accumulate any in the remaining two weeks prior to kickoff. I will scoop up Chubb late in my drafts though.
Brian Robinson was a great fantasy pick...until the Commanders traded him to the Niners. There's a lot to read between the lines here. In San Francisco, Robinson is reduced from steady starting RB to backup. That backup however is to Christian McCaffrey. The Niners clearly feel that they have a post-season run in store and there's too much riding on it to put all your eggs in the CMC basket. As ridiculousy talented as McCaffrey is, let's not forget that he missed an entire season due to injury. Robinson instantly becomes the most valuable handcuff in all of fantasy football. Here's a guy who is a legitimate starter in the league, sharing time with an elite RB, and should anything happen to CMC, he's got tremendous upside. I'm not necessarily avoiding him, but I'm treating his value more like a high-upside backup rather than his current ADP.
Tyreek Hill saw his first real decline in production last season. The Cheetah has been making noise all preseason calling out his receivers coach, calling for Achane to be removed, and getting on Tua's bad side. You wonder how happy he is in Miami. Let's also not forget that his value is intrinsically tied to that of Tua Tagovailoa who is not a great model of health. One good concussion and Tua's out...again. We all want to see Hill back at peak form, but there are a lot of flags here to worry about.
Rashee Rice will not be on any of my rosters. His looming suspension is expected to be significant. For a guy who could legitimately miss half the season, there are just better options out there. I'll watch for when the verdict comes down from the league and then plan to grab him off waivers should he find his way there.
Breece Hall is a dynamic talent - no doubt - but what has me concerned is a potential drop in usage. I try not to read too much into the preseason, but Hall has split work almost down the middle with Braelon Allen. Hall finished last season as the RB17 in fantasy points per game which was fine for your RB2. He'll still likely finish as an RB2 albeit I'm expecting a low-end RB2 finish as he cedes more work to Allen. For his part, Allen has looked fresh and explosive. He remains one of my favorite handcuffs to target. Any missed time by Hall puts Allen into that RB2/Flex weekly discussion.
Patrick Mahomes has been a fantasy staple for several years, but he's a better NFL quarterback than he is a fantasy quarterback this year. Good luck finding an analyst who will disagree with that sentiment. Mahomes has finished as the 13th and 11th best fantasy QB the past two seasons after finishing as a Top 6 QB the previous five seasons. I can see the trend, and although I'm not reaching for Mahomes, I still drafted him in two leagues where the value was undeniable. I expect him to finish as a QB1 but I'm expecting more of a low-end QB1.
Jordan Addison has taken advantage of the defensive focus on Justin Jefferson and quietly turned that into 10 touchdowns. Addison however will miss the first three games of the regular season because of suspension (DUI-related offense). He also has a new QB under center with J.J. McCarthy. This is not to say avoid at all costs, but I'm certainly avoiding where I've seen him taken in recent drafts. He'll produce once he's back on the field, but his suspension is nearly a quarter of the regular fantasy season.
Keep Your Eyes Peeled For These Guys
Your fantasy championship is likely to be won in the middle/late rounds. Ask anyone who drafted Chase Brown, Brian Thomas Jr, Bucky Irving, or Trey McBride how their teams did last year.
In 2025, there are a handful of guys that I'm keeping an eye on. TreVeyon Henderson is one of those guys. The second round pick has a chance to immediately challenge starter Rhamondre Stevenson for touches. His breakout speed was on full display in the preseason as he ran it back the length of the field for a score. The offensive line in New England has been upgraded and Josh McDaniels is one of those guys who will get every bit of juice out of him. For fantasy purposes, there's nowhere to go but up here.
Another guy I like late in drafts is rookie RB Kaleb Johnson whose spot on the depth chart has him currently behind Jaylen Warren. With Najee Harris gone, Johnson's opportunity here is fantastic. He won't beat out Warren for the starting gig right away, but I'm expecting his workload to increase throughout the year. The kid is available near the end of the draft and I'm buying in not as an immediate starter but a stash for later this season.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is a name many casual fantasy football managers may not know, but that's about to change. The Commanders may have struck gold in the seventh round. With Brian Robinson shipped off to San Francisco, rookie back Croskey-Merritt steps into a wide-open lane for touches as Kliff Kingsbury's designated A-back. Unlike most late-round fliers, Merritt has been turning heads from the moment Washington brought him in. His resume, capped by a Shrine Bowl Offensive MVP performance, shows he's more than just another seventh-round dart throw. Washington clearly sees untapped potential here. If Merritt can keep veteran Chris Rodriguez at bay, there's every reason to believe he'll earn a meaningful role in the Commanders' backfield rotation.
I have a few shares of Tetairoa McMillan and I can't wait to see what he'll produce on an offense that is in dire need of a true Number 1 receiver. McMillan offers exactly what the Panthers' receiving corps has been missing. His competition? An inconsistent Xavier Legette and an intriguing but undrafted rookie in Jalen Coker. For McMillan, the path is straightforward: Bryce Young only needs incremental growth. Last season Adam Thielen thrived as Young's security blanket, hauling in over 100 catches and 1,000 yards. And with Dave Canales now running the show, the WR1 role in Carolina projects even more value. In his scheme, the lead receiver between Diontae Johnson and Thielen was tracking toward 1,100 yards on a 17-game pace while commanding a massive 33% first-read target share. Thielen himself closed the year averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game - WR8 territory over that stretch. McMillan is undervalued in my opinion and being drafted around WR28/29 - a clear case of the market pricing him at his floor rather than his ceiling.
Guys I'm Crushing On
I'm in a platonic relationship with a handful of players this season. I'm actively looking for them in the draft room and a loud F-bomb can be heard out of my mouth when someone else takes them. I'm talking about guys like Ashton Jeanty, Chase Brown, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Emeka Egbuka, and Alvin Kamara. Jeanty and Brown can be the Hero RB that we all need and deserve. Nobody's challenging either guy for touches and they are insanely talented. Metcalf is intriguing to me as the prime target for Aaron Rodgers. While they looked a bit shakey at the start of camp, their rapport has grown significantly in front of our own eyes. Egbuka fills in the Chris Godwin role at least for a little while, but he could find staying power if he performs well the first month.
Stefon Diggs has become a favorite late round target for me. Once fully healthy, he'll be the alpha dog for Drake Maye. What we know about Diggs is that ego plays a huge role for him. If he's not getting the targets he thinks he deserves, he's not shy about vocalizing it. History has shown us that the squeaky wheel gets the grease and Diggs has consistenty seen an uptick after one of these vocal "reminders". In PPR formats, he should have plenty of targets.
Alvin Kamara - I can't quit you. Alvin Kamara still profiles as a reliable RB2 in PPR formats, with his pass-catching role keeping him fantasy relevant even as the wear and tear of his career begins to show. At 29 years old with heavy usage on his résumé, there's obvious risk - but his skill set meshes perfectly with a Saints offense that could lean heavily on short passes if Spencer Rattler struggles or misses time. In that scenario, Kamara's ability as a checkdown option makes him the natural safety valve, setting the stage for another season of steady receptions and all-purpose yardage. While the days of Kamara finishing as an elite RB1 are likely behind him, he remains a strong value if he slips into the late third or early fourth round of drafts. Managers shouldn't count on fireworks, but they can bank on a dependable weekly floor.
General Strategy and Advice
Understand the difference between price and value.
As Warren Buffett once said, "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." If you remember nothing else from this article, this is the one takeaway that we really want to impress upon you. Let me demonstrate how that applies to fantasy football. Last year, rookie QB Jayden Daniels was routinely taken off the boards in the 9th round. In many cases, he was being drafted as a backup QB. When the dust settled, he finished as the 5th best fantasy contributor across ALL positions.
We paid an 9th-round price for him and got a Top 5 finish. That's price versus value in a nutshell. If the NFL is a game of inches, fantasy football is a game of fractional points. Understanding the difference between price and value can pay big dividends during your draft. Fantasy Nerds has developed a tool to help you find the best values in your draft and do your best not to overpay.
It in incumbent upon you to know your scoring system and roster requirements BEFORE you enter the draft room. I see it every year and I can't stress this one enough. If your league gives points for receptions (PPR or 1/2 pt PPR), certain players are going to be more valuable than others. If your league starts 2 quarterbacks or gives 6 points for a passing touchdown, those players will be more valuable. It is remarkable to me that in virtually every draft that I have participated in this year, someone inevitably asks what the scoring format is. Don't be that guy.
I had an in-person draft this season for a home league, and without fail, there's always someone there with a magazine. This absolutely boggles my mind. Why in the world do we still publish fantasy football magazines, and why in the world do people buy them? Look, we've all used magazines in the past, but as time-honored as that tradition might be, it's like using AOL's 56K dial-up service to get connected to the Internet. I'm even fairly certain that these magazines are still delivered via horse and buggy.
If you use the rankings from Fantasy Nerds, we are updating those every single day. Trades...injuries...suspensions...those things all get factored into dynamic player values. The moment a magazine goes to print, that's it folks. Keep in mind that most of those articles are written well before it goes to print.
Got a stack of players from the same team? No sweat. I've watched people pass over players because they feel like they have too many from the same team. The logic generally flows something like this: half my team will be on bye at the same time and if the team does poorly, they'll all do poorly.
When I hear that, I like to sit the person down and regale them with fantastic stories about the 2007 New England Patriots and the 2013 Denver Broncos. In both examples, I played in leagues where someone did have a roster full of those players including Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Laurence Maroney, and Sammy Morris for the Pats and Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Knowshon Moreno for the Broncos.
Guess what? Each guy lost the week that those teams were on bye, but they completely dominated every...single...other...week. The playoffs were a breeze for them.
Final Thoughts
The season is less than two weeks away so drafts are currently hot and heavy. I've done more than my fair share of drafts (in way too many leagues this year...again) so learn from what I've seen over the past month to make your draft experience that much better. Become a Premium Member and unlock all of our weighted rankings and projections. There are other popular rankings aggregators, but that's all they do with their data. We take it a step further and weight each source based upon its accuracy giving you an edge that your league mates using the default draft rankings for your league simply won't have.
There's a ton of value in this year's draft, but if you don't get at least one or two solid RBs and WRs early, it may be somewhat difficult to compete in December after a season of injuries and changes have you reaching for depth. Don't go into your draft with a rigid plan. Every year I get questions from members asking if they should go RB/RB or WR/WR, and each time I tell them to take the best available player in those early rounds. Take what the draft gives you. Be flexible.
Finally, enjoy this moment! We talk about things like strategy and which guys to target and when, but rarely do we talk about the fun part of the game. Talk smack and don't be afraid to toss out fantasy football punishment bets. Nobody remembers who won their Week 12 matchup, but nobody in my league will ever forget watching me get my leg waxed. Make the most of the memories. The draft will be over before you know it, and the social aspect of fantasy football is one of the best parts of the game! Trust me - it won't be long before January is here and fantasy season is over.
Good luck in your drafts!
Joe Dyken
Chief Nerd
