This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 15 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.
Spot On
Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Week 15 (2025) quick fantasy recap:
Mack Hollins - projected 6.30, scored 6.10. Narrowly under projection by 0.20 points; essentially a wash for most lineups and not a meaningful swing for owners.
Andres Borregales - projected 7.20, scored 7.00. Missed by 0.20 points; another near-exact outcome for a kicker, so owners got about what they expected.
Xavier Legette - projected 5.20, scored 4.90. Slightly underperformed by 0.30 points; a minor downside but not large enough to materially change most fantasy weeks.
Over Performed
Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Kyle Pitts - Projected 9.70, Actual 40.10 (+30.40). Pitts absolutely exploded in Week 15, delivering a massive upside finish that more than quadrupled his projection. Any fantasy rosters that started him got a league-changing return for the week.
Trevor Lawrence - Projected 17.90, Actual 44.30 (+26.40). Lawrence turned in an elite QB performance, putting up well over twice his expected output and providing a huge ceiling game for his managers. That kind of day can single-handedly win weekly matchups and swing playoff seeding.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Projected 15.00, Actual 34.90 (+19.90). St. Brown delivered a dominant receiving outing, finishing roughly 2.3x his projection and giving fantasy teams a major boost. Reliable and explosive, this performance was the kind of boom week that helps secure late-season fantasy success.
Under Performed
Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Joe Burrow - projected 18.00, scored 5.50
Burrow was a major disappointment in Week 15, finishing with just 5.5 fantasy points (about 30.6% of his projection), a 12.5-point shortfall. That output will have left many starting Burrow scrambling for points, as he produced far less yardage and scoring than expected.
Jahmyr Gibbs - projected 19.10, scored 7.80
Gibbs also underperformed, delivering 7.8 fantasy points (roughly 40.8% of his projection), missing his mark by 11.3 points. For PPR lineups relying on his workload, this was a damaging, below-expectation day.
Quinshon Judkins - projected 13.80, scored 3.20
Judkins posted just 3.2 fantasy points (about 23.2% of projection), a 10.6-point deficit. That was a severe letdown, indicating very limited fantasy production compared with what managers were expecting heading into Week 15.
