This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 16 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.
Spot On
Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Week 16 - 2025 Fantasy Recap
Zane Gonzalez - Projected 8.00, Scored 8.00: Perfectly matched projection. Gonzalez delivered exactly what fantasy managers expected, making him a reliably predictable kicker for Week 16 lineups.
Tyler Shough - Projected 17.30, Scored 17.12: Nearly identical to his projection, missing by just 0.18 points (≈1.0%). That's essentially a wash for most rosters - a strong, projection-hitting QB performance.
Joey Slye - Projected 6.20, Scored 6.00: Slightly under projection by 0.20 points (≈3.2%). A very small shortfall that won't move the needle much in most leagues, but technically a minor underperformance versus expectations.
Over Performed
Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Puka Nacua - Projected 16.70, Scored 40.50
Nacua absolutely shattered his projection, delivering a monster Week 16 that turned a modest expectation into one of the highest-scoring WR performances of the week. That 23.8-point upside likely included a long, game-changing receiving day and multiple scoring plays, turning him into a must-start and a season-defining fantasy asset for any team in the playoffs.
Chris Olave - Projected 12.60, Scored 31.80
Olave ran well past his projection, putting up a huge fantasy line that provided a massive weekly boost. A 19.2-point surplus like this typically reflects big yardage and at least one score, making Olave a boom-or-bust play that paid off handsomely for managers who trusted him in Week 16.
Ashton Jeanty - Projected 12.10, Scored 31.30
Jeanty delivered a breakout RB performance, eclipsing expectations by 19.2 points and likely carrying a heavy workload with key scoring opportunities. That kind of week can swing playoff matchups and elevate his value down the stretch for fantasy teams needing dependable rushing production.
Under Performed
Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Here are short recaps for each player's Week 16 fantasy performance:
Jaxson Dart - projected 17.70, scored 0.02 (−17.68, ~0.11% of projection)
- A catastrophic miss versus expectation. Dart essentially produced no fantasy value in Week 16, turning what looked like a lineup starter into a near-zero outing for anyone who started him.
Josh Allen - projected 21.40, scored 6.90 (−14.50, ~32% of projection)
- A major disappointment relative to projection. Allen put up only about a third of the expected fantasy output, creating a sizable negative swing for teams that relied on him as a high-floor starter.
Lamar Jackson - projected 19.00, scored 4.74 (−14.26, ~25% of projection)
- Far below expectations. Jackson delivered roughly a quarter of his projected points, making this a costly low week for fantasy managers who started him.
