Who to Draft With the 2025 Number 1 Pick in Fantasy Football

You're on the clock with the coveted #1 pick. Having the first pick in the 2025 fantasy football draft puts you in the driver's seat - and the pressure cooker. With elite options like Ja'Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson all vying for that top spot, your choice sets the tone for the entire draft. Whether you prioritize positional scarcity, youth, or upside, hitting on the 1.01 is crucial for building a championship-caliber roster in what promises to be another high-scoring, unpredictable season.

The luxury of being able to select whomever you like is balanced by the fact that the number 1 pick doesn't always pay off. Ask fantasy managers who took Christian McCaffrey first last year how they did in their leagues. He missed the entire season. If that feels like deja vu, recall Le'Veon Bell in 2018 who was widely taken at the #1 spot only to miss the entire season. The top pick not playing the whole year will utterly ruin your season, but even players like Jonathan Taylor in 2022, Dalvin Cook in 2021, or Eddie Lacy in 2015 ruined postseason chances for fantasy managers by wildly under-performing their expectations. Having the #1 pick does not guarantee you fantasy success.

Here are the players that we feel are in contention for that first round pick in 2025.

Ja'Marr Chase, WR - Cincinnati Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase put together a legendary campaign in 2024, securing the WR triple crown by leading the league in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. His 403 PPR points marked the 15th-best season for a wide receiver in fantasy football history, and he finished as the WR1 by a wide margin. With a massive 27.9% target share and dominant red-zone usage, Chase proved to be an unstoppable force in Cincinnati's high-octane, pass-first offense.

Lining up both wide and in the slot, Chase created mismatches all over the field. Despite high volume, he maintained elite efficiency - ranking top-10 in yards per route run and yards after catch per reception. His short-area explosiveness and ability to operate as a versatile threat allowed the Bengals to stay aggressive even with subpar pass protection. Notably, Chase's production actually improved when Tee Higgins was healthy, reinforcing his consistency regardless of surrounding personnel.

Heading into 2025, Chase is locked in as Cincinnati's offensive centerpiece and a near-unanimous 1.01 pick in both PPR and half-PPR formats. With Joe Burrow coming off a career-best season and the Bengals maintaining a fast-paced, pass-heavy scheme, Chase is poised to deliver another year of elite fantasy production. He enters the season healthy and with no meaningful competition for targets, making him one of the safest and most explosive picks on the board.

Bijan Robinson, RB - Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson is heading into 2025 with serious momentum after finishing as the RB4 in PPR scoring last season. He surged in the second half of the year, averaging over 22 points per game and trailing only two backs in total PPR output during that stretch. With 1,456 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns on the ground, and another 431 receiving yards on 61 catches, Robinson proved himself as a dual-threat centerpiece in Atlanta's offense. At just 23 years old, he's entering his physical prime with the potential to lead all running backs in fantasy production this season.

Robinson's late-season breakout coincided with a heavier workload, including a significant boost in carries and goal-line touches. From Week 9 on, he handled over 65% of the team's carries and dominated red-zone opportunities. He maintained efficiency with 4.8 yards per carry behind a top-tier offensive line, while also grading highly in both rushing and receiving metrics according to Pro Football Focus. His all-around skill set gives Atlanta flexibility, and his involvement in both the ground game and passing attack makes him a true workhorse.

With the Falcons retaining their coaching staff and core offensive personnel, Robinson's role remains secure. Quarterback Michael Penix takes over full-time under center, and while there's some uncertainty with his range of outcomes, the offense is still expected to lean heavily on the run. Atlanta returns four of five offensive line starters and projects as a strong unit overall. All signs point to another high-volume, high-efficiency season for Robinson in 2025.

Saquon Barkley, RB - Philadelphia Eagles

After a phenomenal 2024 season that saw Saquon Barkley lead the NFL in rushing yards with 2,005 and finish as the RB1 in Standard and Half-PPR formats, some regression in 2025 seems likely - but his elite role remains unchanged. Barkley handled a league-high 345 carries and added value as a pass-catcher with 33 receptions and two touchdowns. Despite a limited receiving role and goal-line competition from Jalen Hurts, Barkley's fantasy ceiling stays sky-high in Philadelphia's run-heavy scheme.

Barkley's production was powered by one of the best offensive lines in football and a scheme that leaned heavily on the ground game. He averaged a staggering 5.8 yards per carry and ranked near the top in rush yards over expected and breakaway percentage. While the infamous "tush push" limited some of his scoring upside near the goal line, Barkley still finished top-10 in red-zone carries and maintained elite efficiency. The offense's design, paired with the return of stars like Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith, continues to put Barkley in a prime position to produce.

Looking ahead to 2025, Barkley remains the clear bell cow in Philly's backfield. With Kenneth Gainwell gone and only minimal depth behind him, Barkley should maintain a dominant workload. While new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo hasn't called plays before, he's expected to keep the Eagles' ground-first identity intact. Barkley enters his age-28 season with a massive role, a strong supporting cast, and minimal injury concerns - making him one of the safest bets in fantasy at the top of the RB ranks.

Justin Jefferson, WR - Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson proved once again in 2024 that elite talent can thrive regardless of quarterback play. Even with Sam Darnold under center for much of the year, Jefferson racked up 103 receptions for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns, finishing as the WR2 in PPR formats. He remained the focal point of Minnesota's passing game, earning a 28.1% target share on the season and consistently producing big plays with a league-best mix of route-running precision, volume, and explosiveness.

Jefferson's efficiency stayed elite across nearly every advanced metric. He ranked fourth in both yards per route run (2.61) and PFF receiving grade (90.3), while also maintaining strong separation and first-read target rates. Although his role slightly shifted in the back half of the season, Jefferson continued to command attention from defenses and his offensive scheme alike. Head coach Kevin O'Connell's system, even with a slight dip in pass rate, still generated one of the league's most productive air attacks.

Looking ahead to 2025, Jefferson remains the undisputed WR1 in Minnesota's offense. Despite the uncertainty surrounding rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson's locked-in volume, supporting cast, and track record of success make him one of the safest and most valuable fantasy options. With a strong offensive line, a healthy T.J. Hockenson returning, and complementary weapons like Jordan Addison drawing defensive attention, Jefferson is poised for another high-end fantasy season.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs exploded in 2024, finishing as fantasy football's PPR RB1 thanks to a dazzling mix of efficiency, explosiveness, and scoring. He totaled 1,412 yards, tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns, and added 52 catches for over 500 receiving yards. Despite sharing touches with David Montgomery, Gibbs delivered nine top-10 weekly performances and only one game outside RB2 territory - highlighting a floor as solid as his ceiling is electric.

Gibbs shined even in a split backfield, averaging 18.4 PPR points per game on just 14.4 expected points. When Montgomery missed time, Gibbs elevated his game to another level, averaging over 32 fantasy points per outing. He was one of the league's most efficient runners, ranking top-10 in rush yards over expected, breakaway rate, and missed tackles forced. His pass-catching prowess remained strong, though pass protection still lags behind. Importantly, he stayed healthy across all 17 games, easing prior concerns about his durability.

Heading into 2025, Gibbs returns to a familiar role in Detroit's high-powered offense, now led by new OC John Morton, who plans to keep Ben Johnson's successful system intact. The offensive line remains a strength despite the retirement of center Frank Ragnow, and the supporting cast - including Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta - ensures plenty of scoring chances. While Montgomery's presence may slightly cap Gibbs' ceiling, he remains a locked-in RB1 with elite weekly upside.

Bottom Line

You really can't go wrong with any of these players at the number 1 spot, so it comes down to nuances like the scoring format. While Barkley was an absolute beast last year, virtually everyone agrees that some level of regression is coming. Chase brought home championships for many last year, but his value is intrinsically tied to Joe Burrow's health (missed 16 games including the final seven games of 2023). Bijan should have a consistent workload this year, but to be effective he's going to need the Atlanta passing game to step up and keep defenses from stacking the box. Jefferson remains a solid pick but nearly every expert we're tracking has him at least one to two points behind Chase every game. Gibbs crushed it in PPR leagues last year but will always have a lower ceiling with a talented David Montgomery behind him.

In Standard formats, we're taking Bijan Robinson because he offers the rare trifecta of talent, volume, and youth. Coming off a dominant 2024 season where he racked up over 1,800 total yards and 15 touchdowns, Robinson showcased elite dual-threat ability - finishing top-5 in both rushing and receiving categories among running backs. At just 23 years old, he's entering the prime of his career with a feature role in Atlanta's run-focused offense. With continuity in coaching, a strong offensive line, and a clear path to 20+ touches per game, Robinson checks every box for a top fantasy pick.

In PPR formats, we're going to be clicking on Ja'Marr Chase with our first pick. The massive target share combined with polished talent allowed him to be effective regardless of matchup or game script. Unlike top running backs, Chase offers elite production without the volatility tied to injuries or split workloads. In full-PPR formats, especially, he gives you the kind of consistent, explosive output that wins championships. If you're sitting at 1.01, Chase offers the rare blend of safety and upside that makes him the smart, strategic pick.

In HALF-PPR formats, we're going to stay with Ja'Marr Chase for the same reasons above.

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