Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon

RB - KC
Height: 5-9
Weight: 205 lbs
Age: 31
College: Georgia Southern
Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Season Outlooks

McKinnon will return to the Chiefs for a third season and is projected to be their top pass-catching back. He was fourth on the team in targets last year with 71, but his nine receiving touchdowns trailed only Travis Kelce. Considering that McKinnon only scored seven touchdowns on his first 257 career targets, you should expect some pretty significant regression in the touchdown department. That likely regression, paired with the fact that he has one regular season game as a Chief with double-digit carries, means he's best left as a dart throw in the double-digit rounds of Fantasy drafts. Playing with Patrick Mahomes does give him significant weekly touchdown upside; you just shouldn't expect anything like what you saw last year.

McKinnon was awesome over the final 10 games of last season, ranking top-2 among RBs in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. He ranked fifth among RBs in PPR points and ninth in non-PPR points over that span.

He’s due for TD regression in 2023 after scoring eight times on 43 catches over those last 10 games.

But McKinnon looks like the favorite for primary pass-catching duties in Kansas City again, with only Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to fend off.

If he keeps it, McKinnon will again be a valuable asset, especially in PPR leagues.

What We Learned Last YearMcKinnon opened last season in a bit role behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco, averaging just 4.1 carries and 2.4 targets over the first seven games.McKinnon replaced Edwards-Helaire as Kansas City’s primary pass-catching back over the final 10 games. His per-game averages during that stretch:4.3 carries17.2 rushing yards0.1 rushing TDs5.4 targets4.3 catches39.6 receiving yards0.8 receiving TDsMcKinnon ranked fifth among RBs in PPR points and ninth in non-PPR points over that span.He ranked:second among RBs in targetssecond in catchesfirst in receiving yardsfirst in receiving scoreseighth among 43 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus receiving grade10th among 43 qualifiers in yards per route runMcKinnon drew a 14.0% target share in those final 10 games.He also played a big role in the red zone, playing 56% of Kansas City’s snaps inside the 20-yard line and drawing 25 red-zone opportunities (carries + targets) – tied for eighth most among RBs.
What to Expect in 2023The Chiefs re-signed McKinnon to a one-year, $1.3 million contract in May – a similar deal to the one he played on last year.Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire return. It’s the same backfield in Kansas City as last year.Consider McKinnon the favorite to handle passing-down work again in 2023. We’ll see if Edwards-Helaire rebounds, or if Pacheco earns more targets in his second NFL season.McKinnon will be hard-pressed to match last year’s TD production. He scored on 18.6% of his catches over those final 10 games. The league-wide RB receiving TD rate over the last three seasons is 3.9%.McKinnon registered 4.0 expected receiving TDs based on his usage in those final 10 games.He ranked 25th among RBs in expected PPR points per game during that stretch; 42nd in expected non-PPR points per game.

After missing the entire 2018 and 2019 seasons due to injury, McKinnon made an improbable return to the league in 2020 and has since missed only four of a possible 46 games during stops with the 49ers and Chiefs. He hasn't been much of a factor in the run game for quite a while (165 carries in those 46 games), but he delivered in a big way as a receiver in 2022 (56-512-9). In fact, McKinnon is now one of seven RBs in NFL history to catch at least nine TDs in a single season. Despite the 10-TD campaign, McKinnon's situational role limited him to 27th in fantasy PPG and he's yet to finish a season better than 24th. Now 31 years old, McKinnon will remain a change-of-pace/receiving back alongside Isiah Pacheco and perhaps Clyde Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon lacks upside, but has some late-round appeal in PPR.

2023 Fantasy Football Rankings

Standard

#170

PPR

#119

Half-PPR

#161

Superflex

#135

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Projections

Rush Yds Rush TD Rec Rec Yds Rec TD
225.6 1.7 43.2 360.2 3.1

2023 Average Draft Position (ADP)

Standard

#133

Pick 12.01

PPR

#115

Pick 10.07

Half-PPR

#124

Pick 11.04

Superflex

#129

Pick 11.09

Injury Risk

Injury Risk:
Low

Depth Chart

Depth Chart Not Available

Strength of Schedule

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