Week 14 Report Card: Hits, Misses, and Breakouts

Tuesday, Dec 9, 2025 at 5:35 pm ET

This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 14 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.

item Spot On

Player Projected Actual Diff
Jordan Addison, WR - MIN 8.20 8.20 0
Will Reichard, K - MIN 7.00 7.00 0
Caleb Williams, QB - CHI 14.90 14.94 0.03
Cairo Santos, K - CHI 6.90 7.00 0.1
Charlie Smyth, K - NO 5.90 6.00 0.1
Kyle Monangai, RB - CHI 8.30 8.20 0.1
Kareem Hunt, RB - KC 9.30 9.00 0.3
Rachaad White, RB - TB 5.60 6.00 0.4
CeeDee Lamb, WR - DAL 15.50 15.10 0.4
Cam Ward, QB - TEN 10.60 11.08 0.48

Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Jordan Addison (WR) - Projected 8.20, scored 8.20:
Addison landed exactly on his projection in Week 14, delivering a predictable, middle-of-the-card WR performance. Given the terrible play at QB, anything from the Vikings receivers right now is prone to wild swings.

Will Reichard (K) - Projected 7.00, scored 7.00:
Reichard also hit his projection dead-on, providing dependable kicker scoring for Week 14.

Caleb Williams (QB) - Projected 14.90, scored 14.94:
Williams slightly outpaced expectations by 0.04 points, essentially a wash but technically a modest upside event in a tough matchup. The tiny overperformance doesn't change his fantasy profile much - a solid QB option who delivered the expected passing/yardage output for the week. He'll see the Packers again in two weeks.

item Over Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Tony Pollard, RB - TEN 7.80 28.10 20.3
Michael Wilson, WR - ARI 11.40 31.70 20.3
Blake Corum, RB - LAR 6.40 25.60 19.2
Shedeur Sanders, QB - CLE 14.30 33.46 19.16
Puka Nacua, WR - LAR 16.00 32.20 16.2
Josh Allen, QB - BUF 24.00 37.84 13.84
Brandon Aubrey, K - DAL 8.40 22.00 13.6
Tee Higgins, WR - CIN 11.00 24.20 13.2
Harold Fannin, TE - CLE 8.20 21.40 13.2
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - DET 20.50 33.50 13

Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Week 14 (2025) fantasy recap - three big surprise weeks:

Tony Pollard - projected 7.80, scored 28.10 (+20.30)
Where has this version of Tony Pollard been all year? Pollard blew past his modest projection with a huge fantasy outing, turning what looked like a low-floor week into a smash play for managers. That +20.3 swing likely turned many lineups from marginal to winning.

Michael Wilson - projected 11.40, scored 31.70 (+20.30)
Marvin Harrison who? Wilson delivered a breakout scoring day, outscoring his projection by the same massive margin as Pollard. Fantasy rosters that trusted him (or grabbed him off waivers) saw a major upside payoff.

Blake Corum - projected 6.40, scored 25.60 (+19.20)
Corum handed managers a huge surprise, vaulting well past a modest projection and providing late-season RB value. His performance was one of the week's biggest underrate-to-impact stories and highlights how effective that ground game is.

item Under Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Tyrod Taylor, QB - NYJ 16.20 -1.76 17.96
Jalen Hurts, QB - PHI 18.80 1.64 17.16
Daniel Jones, QB - IND 16.00 0.80 15.2
Jayden Daniels, QB - WAS 17.40 2.72 14.68
Patrick Mahomes, QB - KC 18.90 5.80 13.1
Breece Hall, RB - NYJ 14.60 4.30 10.3
Kirk Cousins, QB - ATL 12.10 2.48 9.62
Emeka Egbuka, WR - TB 12.10 2.50 9.6
Justin Jefferson, WR - MIN 11.60 2.10 9.5
Ladd McConkey, WR - LAC 10.80 1.70 9.1

Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Tyrod Taylor - projected 16.20, scored -1.76
Taylor delivered a disastrous Week 14, missing his projection by nearly 18 points. If you were starting Taylor, we suspect you have far bigger issues with your roster.

Jalen Hurts - projected 18.80, scored 1.64
Hurts was held well below expectations, producing only 1.64 fantasy points (a swing of ~17 points). He's one of the only few players EVER to have multiple turnovers on the SAME play. Too bad they don't give out points for that.

Justin Jefferson. Yes, that Justin Jefferson.
It's a terrible situation when you simply can't trust your first round pick to put up points. He was outscored by wide receivers Ryan Flournoy, Bo Melton, and Jack Bech. Don't know those names? That should tell you something.

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