This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 13 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.
Spot On
Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Breece Hall - Projected 14.60, Actual 14.60
Hall delivered a textbook Week 13, hitting his projection exactly. That level of predictability gave fantasy managers a steady RB performance - neither a boom nor a bust - and a reliable middle-of-the-road scoring week.
Kirk Cousins - Projected 13.40, Actual 13.36
Cousins essentially matched expectations, finishing just 0.04 points below his projection. It was a steadier-than-spectacular QB outing that provided the sort of low-variance production fantasy rosters can bank on for a dependable QB1/streaming option.
Marvin Harrison Jr. - Projected 9.80, Actual 9.90
Harrison slightly outperformed his projection by 0.10 points in Week 13. That small upside turned into a modestly better-than-expected WR2/flex contribution - a useful piece of production for managers who started him.
Over Performed
Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Dontayvion Wicks - Projected 5.20, Scored 25.00
Wicks turned a modest 5.2-point projection into a huge 25.0-point day, delivering a true boom-week for managers who started him. That type of outburst can swing matchups and makes him someone to monitor closely for continued target share or as a high-upside play in deeper leagues.
A.J. Brown - Projected 12.60, Scored 30.20
Brown more than doubled a pedestrian 12.6 projection with a 30.2-point performance, anchoring fantasy lineups with elite upside. This performance reinforces his status as a weekly must-start when healthy and a matchup-proof WR1 for the remainder of the season.
Adonai Mitchell - Projected 5.10, Scored 20.20
Mitchell exploded past a 5.1-point expectation to finish with 20.2 points, posting a breakout-style performance for fantasy managers. He's worth adding/keeping in shallow and mid-sized leagues as a high-upside bench piece or spot-start candidate while you track follow-up usage.
Under Performed
Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Amon-Ra St. Brown - projected 15.60, scored 0.00
Injuries are awful. Ask Amon‑Ra's fantasy managers - a projected mid‑teens outing turned into a goose egg. Keep an eye on the injury report this week.
Lamar Jackson - projected 21.50, scored 6.54
Lamar fell well short of expectations in Week 13, delivering just 6.54 fantasy points versus a 21.5 projection. That gap left fantasy owners, many of whom spent a high draft pick on Jackson, on the losing end of their matchups.
Max Brosmer - projected 11.60, scored -3.06
Max's result was brutal. If he had just spiked the ball every down, his QB rating would have been higher than what he demonstrated. Ouch...
