This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 12 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.
Spot On
Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Week 12 recaps (2025 fantasy)
Trevor Lawrence - projected 17.10, scored 17.14: A near-perfect projection - Lawrence essentially delivered exactly what was expected (beat projection by just 0.04 points). Reliable QB2 performance for Week 12; managers who started him got the floor performance they paid for.
Calvin Austin III - projected 5.40, scored 5.60: Small upside here, outpacing his projection by 0.20 points. Not a week-changing line, but a modestly positive outing for a depth/slot receiver - useful in PPR formats when you need marginal production.
Zach Charbonnet - projected 9.70, scored 9.50: Missed projection by only 0.20 points, essentially a wash. A serviceable RB day that landed right around expectations - nothing flashy, but close enough to plan on similar workload moving forward.
Over Performed
Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Jahmyr Gibbs - projected 20.10, scored 49.90 (+29.80): Gibbs exploded in Week 12, nearly hitting 50 fantasy points and obliterating his projection by almost 30 points. That monster outing made him a week-winning starter for owners.
Jameis Winston - projected 14.20, scored 31.74 (+17.54): Winston delivered a huge passing day, more than doubling his expectation and giving QB-needy lineups a major boost. His 31.74 points turned what looked like a risky start into a clear win for many rosters.
Wan'Dale Robinson - projected 9.60, scored 26.10 (+16.50): Robinson outperformed value as a PPR/flex option, providing a surprise ceiling game and vaulting several benches into starting contention. That 26.10-point day reflected a big target share and strong fantasy efficiency.
Under Performed
Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Lamar Jackson - Projected 22.20, Actual 7.22.
Jackson was a massive disappointment for Week 12, finishing 14.98 points below projection (about 32.5% of his expected output). Fantasy managers who started him took a big hit as he turned in one of the slate's larger busts.
Baker Mayfield - Projected 17.20, Actual 3.54.
Mayfield had an especially poor outing, falling 13.66 points short of projection and producing only ~20.6% of his expected fantasy total. That performance ranks as one of the clearest letdowns of the week for QB-dependent lineups. Injuries happen though and it's difficult to predict.
Josh Allen - Projected 21.60, Actual 8.12.
Allen underperformed as well, finishing 13.48 points under projection (about 37.6% of expectation). Like the others, he was a major disappointment for fantasy owners in Week 12.
