Week 10 Report Card: Hits, Misses, and Breakouts

Tuesday, Nov 11, 2025 at 8:27 pm ET

This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 10 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.

item Spot On

Player Projected Actual Diff
Deebo Samuel, WR - WAS 10.90 10.90 0
Sean Tucker, RB - TB 5.60 5.60 0
Michael Wilson, WR - ARI 5.50 5.40 0.1
Kyle Monangai, RB - CHI 8.90 8.80 0.1
J.J. McCarthy, QB - MIN 15.00 14.72 0.28
Pat Freiermuth, TE - PIT 5.10 4.80 0.3
D'Andre Swift, RB - CHI 11.90 12.30 0.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - SEA 17.40 17.80 0.4
Colston Loveland, TE - CHI 7.00 7.50 0.5
Zach Ertz, TE - WAS 7.90 7.40 0.5

Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Deebo Samuel - Projected 10.90, Scored 10.90
Deebo delivered exactly what models expected in Week 10, hitting his projection to the decimal. That kind of spot-on outing is a win for managers relying on projection-based lineups - steady production and no surprises.

Sean Tucker - Projected 5.60, Scored 5.60
Tucker matched his projection perfectly, providing the modest, predictable output fantasy owners hoped for. Useful as a low-upside, low-variance piece in deeper lineups or handcuff scenarios.

Michael Wilson - Projected 5.50, Scored 5.40
Wilson came in just a hair under projection (down 0.1 points), effectively a neutral result for Week 10. The tiny shortfall won't move the needle for most rosters, but it's a reminder that borderline options can swing one way or the other.

item Over Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Jonathan Taylor, RB - IND 20.50 48.10 27.6
Devon Achane, RB - MIA 17.90 37.50 19.6
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - DET 17.60 36.70 19.1
TreVeyon Henderson, RB - NE 11.60 27.50 15.9
Davis Mills, QB - HOU 12.80 27.68 14.88
Tyler Allgeier, RB - ATL 5.40 17.70 12.3
Mac Jones, QB - SF 11.30 23.06 11.76
Jameson Williams, WR - DET 9.70 20.90 11.2
Trey McBride, TE - ARI 12.30 23.20 10.9
Tez Johnson, WR - TB 7.90 18.20 10.3

Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Week 10 delivered huge fantasy ceilings.

Jonathan Taylor: Projected 20.50, scored 48.10 - an enormous 27.60-point beat. Taylor more than doubled expectations and turned in a truly elite, lineup-winning outing that likely decided many matchups.

Devon Achane: Projected 17.90, scored 37.50 - a 19.60-point surge. Achane essentially doubled his projection, providing a high-upside performance that paid off for managers.

Jahmyr Gibbs: Projected 17.60, scored 36.70 - up 19.10 points. Gibbs also nearly doubled expectations, delivering a game-changing day.

item Under Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Bo Nix, QB - DEN 20.60 5.80 14.8
Bryce Young, QB - CAR 14.30 1.56 12.74
Garrett Wilson, WR - NYJ 11.50 0.00 11.5
Sam Darnold, QB - SEA 16.40 4.92 11.48
A.J. Brown, WR - PHI 12.00 2.30 9.7
D.J. Moore, WR - CHI 9.10 0.00 9.1
James Cook, RB - BUF 17.20 8.20 9
Brock Bowers, TE - LV 12.20 3.20 9
Justin Fields, QB - NYJ 15.90 6.96 8.94
Romeo Doubs, WR - GB 9.90 1.00 8.9

Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Bo Nix - projected 20.60, scored 5.80
Bo Nix massively underperformed vs. his projection. If you started him, this one might sting. We all had higher expectations.

Bryce Young - projected 14.30, scored 1.56
Bryce Young's Week 10 performance was a shock relative to his projection.

Garrett Wilson - projected 11.50, scored 0.00
Injuries are a part of the game and Garrett Wilson managers know this...unfortunately.

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