Week 9 Report Card: Hits, Misses, and Breakouts

Tuesday, Nov 4, 2025 at 8:37 pm ET

This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 9 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.

item Spot On

Player Projected Actual Diff
Jason Myers, K - SEA 8.00 8.00 0
Justin Jefferson, WR - MIN 13.90 13.70 0.2
David Montgomery, RB - DET 10.30 10.00 0.3
Trey McBride, TE - ARI 14.30 14.00 0.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - SEA 18.30 18.00 0.3
Stefon Diggs, WR - NE 10.90 11.30 0.4
Rashid Shaheed, WR - SEA 8.80 9.30 0.5
Oronde Gadsden, TE - LAC 9.90 9.30 0.6
TreVeyon Henderson, RB - NE 11.30 10.70 0.6
Travis Kelce, TE - KC 9.90 10.60 0.7

Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Jason Myers - Week 9, 2025
Myers delivered exactly as expected, posting 8.00 fantasy points on the nose. That kind of spot-on output is valuable for managers relying on kicker consistency - he neither boosted nor hurt lineups, simply meeting projection.

Justin Jefferson - Week 9, 2025
Jefferson nearly hit his projection, finishing with 13.70 points against a 13.90 forecast (0.20 points shy). Practically speaking, it was an expected outing - a dependable performance that left fantasy owners essentially where they planned.

David Montgomery - Week 9, 2025
Montgomery came up just short of his projection, scoring 10.00 points versus a 10.30 expectation (0.30 points under). It was a close-to-projected day, offering modest, predictable production but not the extra upside managers might have hoped for.

item Over Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Brock Bowers, TE - LV 10.30 37.30 27
Drake London, WR - ATL 12.60 34.30 21.7
Colston Loveland, TE - CHI 5.20 26.80 21.6
Tee Higgins, WR - CIN 10.80 29.60 18.8
Caleb Williams, QB - CHI 19.80 37.70 17.9
Rico Dowdle, RB - CAR 10.20 27.10 16.9
Joe Flacco, QB - CIN 15.90 30.70 14.8
Geno Smith, QB - LV 14.60 26.26 11.66
Tory Horton, WR - SEA 7.40 18.80 11.4
D.J. Moore, WR - CHI 9.80 20.98 11.18

Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Brock Bowers - Projected 10.30, Scored 37.30 (+27.00)
Bowers delivered a monster Week 9, obliterating his projection and single‑handedly turning multiple fantasy lineups from meh to elite. A 37.3-point outing shows that he was heavily involved in the game plan and finished with game‑changing plays, making him a must-start going forward and a clear difference-maker for managers this week.

Drake London - Projected 12.60, Scored 34.30 (+21.70)
London posted a huge outlier performance, nearly tripling his projection. That sort of spike was due to a big target share and multiple touchdowns that pushed him into high-end WR1 territory for Week 9. Managers who started him got a major boost.

Colston Loveland - Projected 5.20, Scored 26.80 (+21.60)
Loveland delivered a breakout fantasy day, vaulting well past a low projection and providing excellent value. He's worth monitoring/starting in favorable matchups the next few weeks after this strong showing.

item Under Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - DET 18.20 4.30 13.9
Jonathan Taylor, RB - IND 20.40 6.70 13.7
Rome Odunze, WR - CHI 12.70 0.00 12.7
Patrick Mahomes, QB - KC 21.90 10.50 11.4
Kimani Vidal, RB - LAC 14.30 3.00 11.3
DK Metcalf, WR - PIT 12.60 1.60 11
Jordan Love, QB - GB 19.60 9.02 10.58
C.J. Stroud, QB - HOU 14.90 4.36 10.54
Alvin Kamara, RB - NO 9.90 0.20 9.7
Bryce Young, QB - CAR 12.60 2.98 9.62

Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Jahmyr Gibbs - projected 18.20, scored 4.30
Gibbs badly underperformed his projection, delivering a low-impact outing that left managers short of expectations.

Jonathan Taylor - projected 20.40, scored 6.70
Taylor produced a far smaller return than projected, turning in a disappointing day that fell well below fantasy expectations..

Rome Odunze - projected 12.70, scored 0.00
Odunze was a complete miss for Week 9, posting zero fantasy points and leaving fantasy managers with a doughnut.

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