Week 7 Report Card: Hits, Misses, and Breakouts

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025 at 5:49 pm ET

This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 7 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.

item Spot On

Player Projected Actual Diff
Chase Brown, RB - CIN 11.00 11.00 0
Emeka Egbuka, WR - TB 7.90 7.80 0.1
Chris Moore, WR - WAS 7.10 6.90 0.2
Jeremy McNichols, RB - WAS 5.30 5.50 0.2
Riley Patterson, K - MIA 5.80 6.00 0.2
Malik Washington, WR - MIA 5.30 5.50 0.2
Ryan Fitzgerald, K - CAR 6.80 7.00 0.2
RJ Harvey, RB - DEN 6.90 6.70 0.2
Evan Engram, TE - DEN 6.40 6.70 0.3
Stefon Diggs, WR - NE 10.80 10.40 0.4

Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Week 7 (2025) fantasy recaps:

Chase Brown - Projected 11.00, Scored 11.00. Perfectly hit his projection, delivering exactly the expected fantasy output. A welcome bit of consistency for managers relying on him as a stable weekly option.

Emeka Egbuka - Projected 7.90, Scored 7.80. Essentially on target with a tiny 0.1-point shortfall; no meaningful surprise and a near-identical return to projection-based expectations.

item Over Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Bo Nix, QB - DEN 18.40 39.96 21.56
Oronde Gadsden, TE - LAC 6.00 25.90 19.9
DeVonta Smith, WR - PHI 9.90 28.80 18.9
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - DET 16.50 35.30 18.8
Christian McCaffrey, RB - SF 19.90 35.60 15.7
A.J. Brown, WR - PHI 10.60 26.10 15.5
Ja'Marr Chase, WR - CIN 15.60 30.10 14.5
Jonathan Taylor, RB - IND 19.20 32.70 13.5
Travis Hunter, WR - JAC 6.90 20.10 13.2
Trey McBride, TE - ARI 11.30 24.40 13.1

Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Bo Nix - Projected 18.40, Actual 39.96
Bo Nix absolutely smashed his Week 7 projection, outscoring it by 21.56 fantasy points (about a 117% increase). That kind of performance is a true boom-week for QB managers and turned him into a league-winning starter for anyone who started him.

Oronde Gadsden - Projected 6.00, Actual 25.90
Gadsden delivered a huge surprise, adding 19.90 fantasy points over expectation (roughly a 332% increase). That's the kind of breakout receiving day that vaults a bench stash into immediate waiver-wire value. Managers who had him available likely enjoyed a top-20 receiver outing for the week.

DeVonta Smith - Projected 9.90, Actual 28.80
Smith outpaced his projection by 18.90 points, finishing at about 291% of his expected output (a ~191% increase). A performance like this reaffirms his upside and makes him must-consider as a weekly starter - especially in shallow formats.

item Under Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Tua Tagovailoa, QB - MIA 13.40 -1.40 14.8
Caleb Williams, QB - CHI 19.30 4.68 14.62
Justin Fields, QB - NYJ 18.30 4.04 14.26
Mike Evans, WR - TB 12.60 0.00 12.6
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB - WAS 14.60 3.70 10.9
Geno Smith, QB - LV 13.60 2.78 10.82
Saquon Barkley, RB - PHI 15.50 4.70 10.8
Mac Jones, QB - SF 15.60 5.18 10.42
Ashton Jeanty, RB - LV 14.30 3.90 10.4
George Kittle, TE - SF 10.30 0.00 10.3

Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Tua Tagovailoa - projected 13.40, scored -1.40
Tua was a catastrophic fantasy miss in Week 7, finishing about 14.8 points below projection. That kind of negative output wrecked most lineups that started him. A costly week for managers who relied on at least an average outing. Tua's struggles outside the locker room continue.

Caleb Williams - projected 19.30, scored 4.68
Williams fell roughly 14.6 points short of his projection. What should have been a high-upside week turned into a low-scoring outing, driven by inefficient passing and limited production. Fantasy managers expecting a big return on a sweet matchup from him were largely disappointed.

Justin Fields - projected 18.30, scored 4.04
Fields finished about 14.3 points under projection. His rushing floor didn't materialize and he failed to deliver the usual rushing/dual-threat boost most fantasy managers count on, making him a significant letdown for Week 7 lineups. His fantasy value for the rest of the season may have taken a significant hit.

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