Week 6 Report Card: Hits, Misses, and Breakouts

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 at 5:44 pm ET

This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 6 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.

item Spot On

Player Projected Actual Diff
Jeremy McNichols, RB - WAS 5.20 5.00 0.2
Ashton Jeanty, RB - LV 15.80 15.60 0.2
Jayden Daniels, QB - WAS 21.40 21.64 0.24
Baker Mayfield, QB - TB 19.90 19.64 0.26
Jake Ferguson, TE - DAL 11.10 10.80 0.3
Jaylen Waddle, WR - MIA 12.50 12.82 0.32
Tre Tucker, WR - LV 9.10 9.50 0.4
Darren Waller, TE - MIA 8.60 8.20 0.4
Derrick Henry, RB - BAL 13.90 13.50 0.4
Alvin Kamara, RB - NO 10.50 10.10 0.4

Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Ashton Jeanty - Projected 15.80, Actual 15.60
Jeanty delivered a near-identical performance to his projection, turning in a strong fantasy day. He provided dependable volume and scoring, giving managers a reliably useful week without any major surprise. This was the kind of steady workload-based outing fantasy owners want from a starting running back.

Jayden Daniels - Projected 21.40, Actual 21.64
Daniels slightly outperformed his projection, putting together a very solid QB1 performance. He hit the mark for high-end fantasy production, rewarding managers who started him with a combination of passing and rushing scoring. Overall, a dependable and slightly better-than-expected outing for Week 6.

item Over Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Cam Skattebo, RB - NYG 11.30 30.00 18.7
Kayshon Boutte, WR - NE 6.00 23.80 17.8
Rico Dowdle, RB - CAR 14.60 31.90 17.3
Bijan Robinson, RB - ATL 17.90 32.80 14.9
Drake London, WR - ATL 12.00 26.80 14.8
Kimani Vidal, RB - LAC 7.00 21.30 14.3
Dallas Goedert, TE - PHI 8.00 21.50 13.5
D'Andre Swift, RB - CHI 11.40 24.50 13.1
George Pickens, WR - DAL 14.70 27.30 12.6
Josh Jacobs, RB - GB 17.00 29.50 12.5

Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Cam Skattebo - projected 11.30, scored 30.00 (+18.70)
Cam absolutely blew past his projection in Week 6, turning an average expected outing into a monster fantasy day. Managers who started him got a huge boost; those who left him on the bench missed a slate-changing result. He's quickly becoming an every week starter.

Kayshon Boutte - projected 6.00, scored 23.80 (+17.80)
Boutte turned what looked like a low-upside projection into a very profitable week, nearly quadrupling expectations. A 23.8-point output is exactly the kind of performance that makes him a viable waiver-wire target and a candidate to start in favorable matchups going forward. That's his second big game this year and he is a great complementary player to Stefon Diggs.

Rico Dowdle - projected 14.60, scored 31.90 (+17.30)
Dowdle delivered a massive Week 6, more than doubling his projection and finishing as one of the week's top fantasy performers. Fantasy managers should view him as a strong starter while the usage continues and consider keeping him on rosters if he's still available. We'll need to see what happens with Chuba Hubbard when he returns and how the touches will be divided.

item Under Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Puka Nacua, WR - LAR 18.50 3.80 14.7
Cooper Rush, QB - BAL 12.20 -1.12 13.32
Justin Fields, QB - NYJ 17.70 4.90 12.8
Emeka Egbuka, WR - TB 15.10 3.40 11.7
Quinshon Judkins, RB - CLE 13.90 3.60 10.3
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - DET 17.10 7.00 10.1
Javonte Williams, RB - DAL 16.00 5.90 10.1
Courtland Sutton, WR - DEN 12.10 2.20 9.9
Saquon Barkley, RB - PHI 17.20 7.70 9.5
Garrett Wilson, WR - NYJ 12.20 2.80 9.4

Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Puka Nacua - Projected 18.50, Scored 3.80
Nacua massively underdelivered relative to his projection, finishing with just 3.8 fantasy points before leaving with an ankle injury. We'll need to keep an eye on his situation.

Cooper Rush - Projected 12.20, Scored -1.12
Rush went from a solid projection to a negative fantasy line, a dramatic swing that shows why he was benched. For teams that started him because of matchup or injuries elsewhere, this was a brutal hit. Lamar Jackson cannot return soon enough.

Justin Fields - Projected 17.70, Scored 4.90
Fields fell far short of expectations, producing just 4.9 points instead of an anticipated 17.7. Fields himself indicated that he should have been more aggressive, but in fairness, he was sacked so often that being aggressive might not have been a viable option. We'll look to see him rebound in the next game.

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