This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 5 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.
Spot On
Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Carson Wentz - Projected 14.70, Actual 14.74
Wentz essentially hit his projection in Week 5, finishing just a hair above expectations (+0.04). That line represents a steady, predictable fantasy outing - enough to be a reliable starter but not a week-changing ceiling performance.
Tee Higgins - Projected 9.80, Actual 9.70
Higgins came in just under his projection (−0.10), delivering a near-expected floor outing. It was a modest, unspectacular day that kept him in line with season norms but didn't produce the big-play boost fantasy managers hope for.
Tre Tucker - Projected 8.90, Actual 9.10
Tucker slightly outperformed his projection (+0.20), turning in a marginally better-than-expected Week 5. The small upside he showed could make him an intriguing depth piece if he continues to chip in around his projected range.
Over Performed
Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Rico Dowdle - Projected 12.30, Scored 30.90
Dowdle absolutely smashed his projection, finishing 18.6 points above expectation (about 2.5× his projected output). That kind of outing turns him into a Week 5 fantasy hero for anyone who started him, likely swinging close matchups and making him worth monitoring as a higher-upside option in upcoming lineups.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt - Projected 9.00, Scored 26.00
Croskey-Merritt exploded for a 17-point overperformance, almost 2.9× his projection. A performance like this rewarded owners who rode him this week, and managers in deeper formats should consider him for more regular starts.
Emeka Egbuka - Projected 12.30, Scored 27.80
Egbuka outpaced expectations by 15.5 points (about 2.26× projection), delivering a top-tier weekly score for a wide receiver. That reliability and ceiling in Week 5 makes him a valuable fantasy piece moving forward - especially in formats that reward big-play upside - so he's worth locking into starting lineups while the production continues.
Under Performed
Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. James Cook - Projected 16.30, scored 4.90
Cook massively underdelivered relative to projection, generating just 4.9 fantasy points (11.4 points below expectation).
Cooper Rush - Projected 11.80, scored 1.16
Rush was a boom-or-bust fill-in that busted in Week 5, finishing with only 1.16 points (10.64 points under projection). If Rush was your streaming option, consider looking for a better matchup on waivers or pivoting to a stronger QB play in Lamar's absence.
Geno Smith - Projected 15.80, scored 5.92
Geno fell well short of expectations, delivering 5.92 points (9.88 points under projection). We'll look for a bounce back game.
