Week 5 Start or Sit

Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025 at 10:00 pm ET

This is the Fantasy Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season. Analysis is aggregated from multiple sources including FN. Rankings are based upon PPR (point per reception) scoring. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, or Puka Nacua. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.

Start 'em Drake Maye (NE, QB)
Drake Maye is rolling into a tough Week 5 road spot at Buffalo after throwing two touchdown passes in each of his last three games, adding two rushing scores and completing roughly 74% of his attempts. New England is about a one-touchdown underdog in a matchup with an expected total near 50 points, which should create plenty of passing volume and running chances for Maye. The Bills have been stingy through the air (just 125.8 passing yards and 19.5 fantasy points allowed to QBs per game) but vulnerable to QB rushers - three signal-callers have topped 49 rushing yards against them and Buffalo has given up the most QB rushing yards this season - playing into Maye's strengths (two rushing TDs and multiple 30+-yard rush games). With Stefon Diggs coming off a 100-yard performance, Maye carries real top-10 upside and could turn this shootout into a fantasy monster.
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13th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Kyler Murray (ARI, QB)
Kyler Murray will try to get Arizona back in the win column in Week 5 against Tennessee. He threw for 200 yards and two TDs and added 41 rushing yards against Seattle, but also tossed two interceptions while leaning on Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride (13 catches, 118 yards combined). Tennessee's pass defense has been shaky (23rd in yards per attempt, 20th in total passing yards), making this a favorable matchup for Murray's dual-threat skill set - he's rushed at least 32 yards in every game this year. Despite underwhelming fantasy production so far (only two games of 20+ points, 18.6 PPG average), Murray has top-five upside this week after the Titans allowed C.J. Stroud a season-high 22.4 fantasy points.
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12th Fewest Pts to QB
Start 'em Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB)
Quinshon Judkins has quickly become Cleveland's lead back and one of the few reliable pieces of its offense, totaling 176 rushing yards and five catches in two full-snap games. His Week 4 line (21 carries for 82 yards and a TD, plus four catches for 33 yards) suggests the Browns will lean on him again against Minnesota, which ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed (434) and has given up big games to runners like Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Gainwell. Though Cleveland's limited offense could suppress his scoring chances, Judkins has been a steady PPR performer (16.5+ in each of the last two outings) and profiles as a solid RB2 - even a borderline RB1 - for Week 5 despite the uncertainty at quarterback with Dillon Gabriel starting.
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15th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Woody Marks (HOU, RB)
This week's top waiver wire add, Woody Marks, the Texans' 2025 fourth-round pick, has steadily carved out a bigger role - going from seven offensive snaps early in the season to 41 in Week 4 - and produced a breakout game with 119 scrimmage yards (a team-high), two touchdowns and career highs in carries (17), touches (21), receiving yards (50) and rushing yards (69). Nick Chubb remains the nominal RB1, but continued usage like this could flip the depth chart quickly. Marks' fantasy ceiling for Week 5 at Baltimore is limited unless he establishes himself as the lead back, yet his 27.9 PPR Week 4 showing and the Ravens' susceptibility to strong RB performances give him legitimate top-20 upside.
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Most pts to RB
Start 'em Jaylen Waddle (MIA, WR)
With Tyreek Hill lost for the season, Jaylen Waddle projects to become Miami's primary receiver as the Dolphins prepare for Week 5 at Carolina. He's been getting a steady five to six targets per game and has struggled to clear 50 yards in three outings, so while his role should expand - and the Panthers do allow 10.9 yards per completion - Carolina has also been stingy against opposing WRs (about 6.2 yards per target and near the top in fewest fantasy points allowed). Waddle's ceiling rises if he sees more volume: in 26 career games with eight-plus targets he averaged 18.9 PPR points, making him a trustworthy No. 2 fantasy start this week, more for floor with upside on big plays.
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2nd Fewest Pts to WR
Start 'em Xavier Worthy (KC, WR)
Xavier Worthy made a strong Week 4 return from a shoulder injury, hauling in five of eight targets for 83 yards and adding 38 rushing yards on two carries while wearing a stabilizing brace. With Rashee Rice out until Week 7, Worthy should remain a primary weapon for Patrick Mahomes, and his Week 5 matchup against a Jaguars secondary that's been vulnerable to wide receivers makes him a solid No. 2 fantasy option.
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11th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em Sam LaPorta (DET, TE)
Sam LaPorta is due for a bounce-back in Week 5 when Detroit visits Cincinnati, but his recent production has been muted - no touchdowns and no 40-yard games since Week 1, with just 12 targets and 19.8 fantasy points across the last three weeks. The Bengals have been susceptible to tight ends, surrendering the ninth-most fantasy points to the position (9.2 per game) and allowing two TEs to post 13+ points already, so the matchup is encouraging. Still, Detroit's potential game script as heavy favorites could limit passing volume, suggesting LaPorta may post a modest stat line even if the matchup is favorable.
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5th Most Pts to TE
Start 'em Dallas Goedert (PHI, TE)
Dallas Goedert found the end zone twice in the Eagles' Week 4 win - his third score in the last two games - and has been a quietly productive fantasy option (41.4 points through his first three contests). Next up is a Week 5 matchup with a Broncos pass defense that has been mediocre this season (212.7 passing yards allowed per game, 18th in the league), and with A.J. Brown likely drawing Patrick Surtain's attention, Goedert and other receivers could see more looks. Given his consistency and Denver's recent tendency to concede fantasy-friendly totals to tight ends (9.6+ points in two of the last three games), he's someone worth keeping in lineups.
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6th Fewest Pts to TE
Start 'em Minnesota Vikings (MIN, DEF)
Although they struggled against Pittsburgh last week, Minnesota's defense remains a must-start with a favorable matchup against Cleveland ahead. The Browns lead the league in giveaways (eight) and have allowed 45 quarterback pressures and nine sacks, so the Vikings should turn in a strong performance in London.
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3rd Most Pts to DEF
Start 'em Spencer Shrader (IND, K)
Spencer Shrader extended his hot start in Week 4 against the Rams, making both field-goal attempts and extra points - he's 13-for-14 on FGs and a perfect 12-for-12 on PATs this season (25-of-26 kicks made). With the Colts hosting a struggling Raiders defense in Week 5, Shrader should see plenty of scoring chances; he's averaged 13.5 fantasy points through four weeks but remains available in many leagues, so he's worth adding and starting given the Raiders' 24.8 PPG allowed and their high rate of points given up to opposing kickers.
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3rd Most Pts to K
Sit 'em Matthew Stafford (LAR, QB)
After a career-best outing Sunday in which he completed 29 of 41 passes for 375 yards and three TDs - including 13 catches for 170 yards and a score to Puka Nacua - Matthew Stafford will try to build on that momentum in Week 5's NFC West clash with the 49ers. San Francisco, however, will present a tougher test: opponents average just 5.61 yards per pass against them (3rd-lowest in the NFL), give up the 4th-fewest fantasy points to the position, and the unit has been one of the most limiting for fantasy quarterbacks despite not yet forcing an interception.
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4th Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em Trevor Lawrence (JAC, QB)
Trevor Lawrence has done a solid job managing games and helping Jacksonville to a 3–1 start, but he's provided little fantasy upside - failing to throw multiple touchdowns in three of his first four starts and scoring 13.7 points or fewer in each victory. He now draws a Chiefs defense that's trending up and ranks among the stingiest versus quarterbacks, having held top signal-callers to very low fantasy totals recently. Given that matchup and his limited scoring output, Lawrence is best left on the bench in single-QB formats and reserved for Superflex or two-QB lineups.
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7th Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em RJ Harvey (DEN, RB)
RJ Harvey's role in Denver's offense is clearly growing after a Week 4 breakout - a career-high 18 touches that produced 98 scrimmage yards and a 12-yard fourth-quarter TD from Bo Nix. Despite that burst and a 5.1 yards-per-carry clip, veteran J.K. Dobbins remains the lead back, and Harvey figures to be the 1B in Sean Payton's scheme. Given Cincinnati was a favorable matchup and Philadelphia should be a tougher test, expect Harvey to cede snaps to Dobbins and be only a desperation flex in Week 5.
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11th Most Pts to RB
Sit 'em Isiah Pacheco (KC, RB)
Isiah Pacheco finally reached the end zone in Week 4 of 2025 - his first score came on a reception - but he remains part of a crowded, inconsistent backfield. He had nine touches to Kareem Hunt's 14 and saw 26 snaps versus Hunt's 31; Pacheco's 4.0 yards per carry outpaces Hunt's 3.2, yet Hunt is getting more red‑zone looks and the split looks highly game‑flow dependent. With Breshard Smith also drawing work (ESPN reported Smith could see more reps) and Jacksonville still without allowing a rushing TD to a running back this season, Pacheco is at best a flex option in Week 5.
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10th Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC, WR)
Brian Thomas struggled early in 2025 but looked more like himself in Week 4 at San Francisco, catching five of seven targets for 49 yards. With Jacksonville operating as a low-volume passing attack under Trevor Lawrence, Thomas' upside - like that of every Jaguar wideout - is capped, though he remains their most dependable receiving option and appears to have shaken off his drop issues. He should be a key part of the offense in Week 5, but against a Chiefs defense that shuts down passing attacks and hasn't allowed a wideout TD since Week 1, he's only a fantasy start in deeper (three-receiver) formats; he still hasn't found the end zone this season.
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11th Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em Ladd McConkey (LAC, WR)
Second-year receiver Ladd McConkey has yet to find his 2024 form, enduring a career-worst Week 4 (one catch on six targets for 11 yards) and slipping behind Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston in the Chargers' pecking order. He's still seen 27 targets for 16 catches and 174 yards overall, which suggests the volume is there for a turnaround - and Week 5's matchup with Washington's struggling secondary, one of the league's worst against wideouts, could be the spark he needs.
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9th Most Pts to WR
Sit 'em David Njoku (CLE, TE)
Despite playing a season-high 85% of snaps in Week 4, Njoku managed just three targets, two catches and 11 yards - season lows - and has yet to top 40 yards or score this year (only one catch over 20 yards). Injuries and Cleveland's uneven offense have hurt production, and Harold Fannin Jr. has seen more snaps and targets through four weeks, cutting into Njoku's role. A Week 5 matchup with Minnesota - which has allowed roughly 10.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends and only two tight ends have reached double digits since Week 14 of 2024 - offers little upside, so Njoku is a risky fantasy start.
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12th Fewest Pts to TE
Sit 'em Mark Andrews (BAL, TE)
Mark Andrews has reestablished himself as Baltimore's secondary receiving option behind Zay Flowers, drawing six and eight targets in Weeks 3–4 (14 targets across those games) despite inconsistent production. The offense is in flux heading into Week 5 after Lamar Jackson's hamstring issue, and Andrews is a viable low-end TE1 if Jackson plays but loses appeal if Cooper Rush starts. He caught seven balls for just 30 yards in Week 4, has been held to 30 or fewer yards three times in four games, saw a dip in snaps with Isaiah Likely's return, and now faces a Texans defense allowing only 32 receiving yards per game to tight ends in 2025.
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7th Fewest Pts to TE
Sit 'em Denver Broncos (DEN, DEF)
The Broncos have been a solid fantasy contributor so far this season, but that doesn't mean they're an automatic start. A road trip to Philly is a tough matchup and that makes Denver a risky play. The Eagles are seventh in scoring, have only one giveaway all season, and opposing defenses have managed under 4 points per game against them.
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14th Fewest Pts to DEF
Sit 'em Harrison Butker (KC, K)
Butker has missed field goals in each of the last three games - including a 56-yarder - and two of those attempts were from 50-plus yards, yet his 13 tries through four weeks project to a career high. Kansas City's explosive passing in Week 4 helps keep him involved, and he has already posted 11-plus fantasy points in three of four contests. Still, Week 5 is a concern: Jacksonville allows just 18.0 points per game (5th-best) and has held opposing kickers to an average of 5.5 fantasy points, with no visiting kicker topping seven, so he's a risky play.
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5th Fewest Pts to K

Join the Discussion

jamisdiablo CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:05 am

waller or kelce in a ppr?

Nerd CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:08 am

Feels like Waller is trying to ride the hot hand, but he's not likely to repeat last week's performance. Would still go Kelce.

mrock CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:39 am

Kelce

Nerd CommentedOct 5, 2025 10:23 pm

Well, Waller didn't repeat last week's performance, but it was pretty darn close. I missed on this.

jamisdiablo CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:06 am

no bowers today i assume… pickup thill, ertz or strange?

Nerd CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:07 am

Ertz for me

mrock CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:39 am

Yep. Ertz.

jamisdiablo CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:22 am

thanks! good luck this week!

mrock CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:39 am

Justin Fields or Drake Maye? Are you really confident in Fields?

Nerd CommentedOct 5, 2025 9:40 am

Everyone has put up big numbers against Dallas. It's Fields for me.


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