This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 4 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.
Spot On
Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to.
Zay Flowers - Projected 10.90, Scored 10.90: Exactly hit his projection, providing a textbook "as-expected" week. Reliable output for managers who started him - no boom or bust, just steady production.
Spencer Rattler - Projected 14.00, Scored 13.94: Practically identical to his projection (down 0.06), a solid QB showing that delivered the expected fantasy upside. Close enough to projection to call it a successful, predictable start.
Cam Little - Projected 7.90, Scored 8.00: Slightly outperformed his projection by 0.10 points, essentially matching expectations.
Over Performed
Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Ashton Jeanty - Projected 12.6, Scored 32.5
Jeanty absolutely blew past expectations, putting up 32.5 fantasy points - nearly 20 points over projection (about 2.6x his expected output). It's about time. Fantasy managers have been waiting for this kind of performance for a month.
Woody Marks - Projected 6.2, Scored 25.9
Marks delivered a true breakout, turning a low 6.2 projection into 25.9 points (more than 4× expectation). He's the top option on the waiver wire report this week.
Romeo Doubs - Projected 8.6, Scored 26.8
Doubs outperformed his modest projection by roughly 18.2 points (about 3.1x projection), showing WR upside and fantasy impact. He's becoming a favorite target for Jordan Love.
Under Performed
Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. Joe Flacco - Projected 13.80, Scored 1.26
Huge letdown in Week 4 - Flacco returned just 1.26 fantasy points (only ~9% of his projection), a 12.54-point shortfall. Hopefully you only played him in 2-QB or SuperFlex leagues.
Lamar Jackson - Projected 22.30, Scored 10.68
Jackson came in well under expectations, delivering 10.68 points (about 48% of his projection), falling 11.62 points short. Injuries happen and unfortunately, we're expecting Lamar to miss a few weeks.
Malik Nabers - Projected 14.00, Scored 3.00
Nabers severely underperformed, finishing with just 3.00 points (≈21% of projection), an 11-point shortfall. Adding insult to injury, Nabers is done for the season.
