Week 3 Report Card: Hits, Misses, and Breakouts

Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 at 6:35 pm ET

This week's report takes a closer look at how our projections for Week 3 stacked up against actual performance on the field - spotlighting the calls we nailed, the players who exceeded expectations, and the disappointments who fell short. By examining both the hits and the misses, we gain valuable insight into how players are performing. While recognizing that it's nearly impossible to perfectly project every player's performance, we're not shy about showing you every miss and hit.

item Spot On

Player Projected Actual Diff
Tyreek Hill, WR - MIA 13.40 13.40 0
Cairo Santos, K - CHI 6.80 7.00 0.2
Jake Bates, K - DET 7.70 8.00 0.3
Travis Etienne, RB - JAC 12.00 11.60 0.4
Josh Allen, QB - BUF 23.50 23.02 0.48
Emeka Egbuka, WR - TB 11.00 11.50 0.5
Tony Pollard, RB - TEN 13.40 12.90 0.5
Chad Ryland, K - ARI 7.50 7.00 0.5
Davante Adams, WR - LAR 13.70 13.10 0.6
Trey McBride, TE - ARI 13.50 12.80 0.7

Several players ended the week very close to where they were projected to. Tyreek Hill - Projected 13.40, Scored 13.40
Hill delivered exactly what fantasy managers expected in Week 3, matching his 13.40-point projection. Keep him locked into lineups.

Cairo Santos - Projected 6.80, Scored 7.00
Santos slightly outperformed his projection, finishing +0.20 points higher than forecast. A small but welcome uptick for a kicker, delivering the steady scoring boost fantasy teams count on.

Jake Bates - Projected 7.70, Scored 8.00
Bates also edged past his projection by +0.30 points, turning in a solid week for fantasy kickers. The marginal overperformance preserved a bit of upside for managers relying on kicker scoring.

item Over Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
Tre Tucker, WR - LV 5.90 36.90 31
David Montgomery, RB - DET 10.90 28.90 18
Hunter Henry, TE - NE 8.10 25.00 16.9
Mark Andrews, TE - BAL 8.40 24.10 15.7
Jonathan Taylor, RB - IND 17.90 31.30 13.4
Chase McLaughlin, K - TB 8.50 21.00 12.5
Cam Skattebo, RB - NYG 9.30 21.10 11.8
Omarion Hampton, RB - LAC 10.40 21.90 11.5
Caleb Williams, QB - CHI 18.10 29.12 11.02
Geno Smith, QB - LV 16.50 26.06 9.56

Quite a few players exceeded their expectations this week helping fantasy managers to a win. Tre Tucker - Projected 5.90, scored 36.90 (+31.00)
Tre Tucker exploded in Week 3, turning a low projection into a massive fantasy performance. He's been heavily involved in this offense and was a matchup-winner for anyone who started him. Managers who picked him up or sat him suddenly saw a major swing in their weekly outcomes and he'll draw immediate attention on waiver boards after this breakout.

David Montgomery - Projected 10.90, scored 28.90 (+18.00)
Montgomery delivered a workhorse-style fantasy day well above expectations. He just couldn't be stopped.

Hunter Henry - Projected 8.10, scored 25.00 (+16.90)
Henry vastly outpaced his projection thanks to a heavy target share and red-zone usage. Tight ends who clear the 20-point mark usually factor prominently in scoring drives, and Henry's day would have been a major boost for teams that started him in Week 3. He'll be viewed as a top streaming option or a solid TE1 candidate while this level of involvement continues.

item Under Performed

Player Projected Actual Diff
CeeDee Lamb, WR - DAL 17.70 0.00 17.7
Malik Nabers, WR - NYG 16.40 2.30 14.1
Michael Penix Jr., QB - ATL 16.10 3.78 12.32
Chase Brown, RB - CIN 15.70 4.00 11.7
Zay Flowers, WR - BAL 14.00 2.30 11.7
Russell Wilson, QB - NYG 16.60 5.10 11.5
Joe Flacco, QB - CLE 14.60 3.68 10.92
Ja'Marr Chase, WR - CIN 17.10 6.40 10.7
Saquon Barkley, RB - PHI 18.10 7.50 10.6
Jake Browning, QB - CIN 16.10 5.90 10.2

Unfortunately, not everyone lived up to their expectations. CeeDee Lamb - Projected 17.70, Actual 0.00
A catastrophic bust - Lamb finished with 0 fantasy points as he dealt with an ankle injury. It's too soon to know how this will affect him moving forward, but hopefully he's not out for very long.

Malik Nabers - Projected 16.40, Actual 2.30
Nabers severely underperformed, finishing with just ~14% of his projection. This should be an anomaly, and while disappointing, fantasy managers shouldn't be too worried. He'll bounce back.

Michael Penix Jr. - Projected 16.10, Actual 3.78
Penix delivered only about 23.5% of his expected output, a disappointing Week 3 outing for QB fantasy managers.

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