This is the Fantasy Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. Analysis is aggregated from multiple sources including FN. Rankings are based upon PPR (point per reception) scoring. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.
Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, or CeeDee Lamb. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.

Start 'em Trevor Lawrence (JAC, QB)Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars aim to rebound in Week 1 at home against a Panthers defense that surrendered a league-high 31.4 points per game and was especially vulnerable against the run. Lawrence - who had 30 TDs in 2022 and 25 in 2023 but only 14 in 10 games before a concussion and shoulder injury ended his 2024 - is now healthy and adds rookie No. 2 pick Travis Hunter to a receiving corps led by 2024 first-rounder Brian Thomas. He's a viable fantasy start and comes into our rankings this week at #10.


Start 'em Bo Nix (DEN, QB)Bo Nix delivered an impressive rookie campaign in 2024, accounting for 33 total touchdowns (29 passing) - sixth in the NFL - and fitting well into Sean Payton's offense as his accuracy and output climbed in the second half of the year. In his final eight regular-season games he completed 70.3% of his throws for 2,022 yards and 21 TDs. Denver added veteran TE Evan Engram and a backfield featuring J.K. Dobbins and 2025 second-round pick RJ Harvey, while Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin could develop into useful complements to top target Courtland Sutton. Nix begins Year 2 as the Broncos' starter, opening at home in Week 1 against a Titans unit that yielded the fewest passing yards in 2024 but was middling in fantasy points allowed to QBs.


Start 'em TreVeyon Henderson (NE, RB)TreVeyon Henderson arrives with buzz for New England's Week 1 tilt with Las Vegas after flashing explosive playmaking in the preseason as a rookie second-rounder. Touches are the main uncertainty - Rhamondre Stevenson will still command a sizable share and Henderson's snaps could be capped by passâprotection duties - but his draft pedigree makes him a viable RB2 for fantasy managers chasing a breakout score.


Start 'em Tony Pollard (TEN, RB)Tony Pollard is expected to shoulder Tennessee's rushing work in Week 1 at Denver after Tyjae Spears (ankle) was placed on IR for at least four weeks. With rookie QB Cameron Ward taking over under center, the Titans will likely lean on Pollard - he averaged roughly 22 carries in five games without Spears versus about 13.6 when they were both active. Although he faces a tough Broncos run defense that ranked among the stingiest last season, Pollard should see enough touches to profile as a mid-range RB2.


Start 'em Emeka Egbuka (TB, WR)Rookie Emeka Egbuka is lined up as Tampa Bay's WR2 for Week 1 against Atlanta, stepping into a bigger role while Chris Godwin rehabs an ankle expected to keep him out until October. Egbuka has generated offseason buzz as a key target for Baker Mayfield and could capitalize on Mike Evans drawing extra defensive attention - especially since the Falcons ranked fourth-worst in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last season - making his NFL debut one to watch. He's also a sneaky good option in Daily Fantasy. Wink. Wink.


Start 'em Travis Hunter (JAC, WR)After the Jaguars traded up to take Travis Hunter No. 2 overall from Colorado in 2025, he's set to make an immediate impact in Week 1 against Carolina. The rare two-way player will see time at both receiver and corner, with a heavier offensive role that should have him starting opposite Brian Thomas. Extra defensive snaps raise conditioning and injury concerns, but given the Panthers allowed 21 WR TDs in 2024 and surrendered the most points in the league, Hunter profiles as a plausible Week 1 fantasy WR2/3.


Start 'em Tyler Warren (IND, TE)Tyler Warren will make his NFL debut for the Colts in Week 1 at home against Miami. The Penn State product, taken 14th overall after a final season with 1,233 receiving yards and 15 TDs, steps in as Indianapolis' unquestioned TE1. He may not eclipse Brock Bowers' rookie marks, but his skill set and opportunity - likely a steady diet of short targets from Daniel Jones against a Dolphins defense that was middle-of-the-pack defending tight ends - make him a reasonable low-end fantasy start to open the season.


Start 'em Evan Engram (DEN, TE)After an injury-hit final season in Jacksonville that produced just 47 catches for 365 yards and a touchdown in nine games and led to his March release, Evan Engram arrives in Denver two years removed from his breakout 2023 (114 catches for 963 yards on 143 targets). He could thrive in Sean Payton's offense - which has previously elevated tight ends like Jimmy Graham - but at 30 he may be past his peak and will have to battle Courtland Sutton, the Broncos' emerging wideouts and rookie RB RJ Harvey for targets. While he's expected to play a notable role in the passing game, his Week 1 matchup against a Tennessee defense presents a tough test.


Start 'em Matt Gay (WAS, K)Matt Gay is a steady option inside 50 yards - his six misses last season came from long attempts - so his ceiling might be limited but his floor is reliable. Playing at home in Week 1 against the Giants, with Washington favored and an implied team total north of 25, he should get plenty of scoring chances. A minor illness isn't expected to affect his availability, and with favorable kicking conditions he projects as a strong fantasy play who could produce a high-scoring outing.


Start 'em Arizona Cardinals (ARI, DEF)This matchup favors the Cardinals - Spencer Rattler is starting for the Saints, and according to NFL.com, last season he actually threw interceptions at a higher clip (2.2%) than touchdowns (1.8%), while taking sacks on 8.3% of his dropbacks (eighth-worst in the NFL). New Orleans managed fewer than 20 points in five of his six starts and was held to 10 or fewer in four.


Sit 'em Jordan Love (GB, QB)The Packers open 2025 against division foe Detroit, whose secondary was only 26th against quarterbacks last year but is expected to look healthier after missing many starters to injury a season ago. Jordan Love himself is fully recovered from thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand, though Green Bay's receiving corps isn't at full strength - Jayden Reed intends to play through a Jones fracture in his foot and Dontayvion Wicks may be limited after missing most of camp. That could push targets to rookie first-rounder Matthew Golden, veteran Romeo Doubs and tight end Tucker Kraft, but a run-first offense and the Lions' stingy touchdown prevention last season should cap Love's Week 1 fantasy upside.


Sit 'em Russell Wilson (NYG, QB)Russell Wilson makes his Giants debut in Week 1 against the Washington Commanders, his third team in three seasons. After 11 games with Pittsburgh in 2024, he posted a career-low 2,482 passing yards with a 16:5 TD–INT mark. New York hands him a legitimate No. 1 target in Malik Nabers, though the rest of the offense lacks playmakers. The opener should be tough - Washington allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game (third-best in the league) - but a potentially light pass rush could give Wilson a chance to find a rhythm with Nabers.


Sit 'em Stefon Diggs (NE, WR)Stefon Diggs' Week 1 availability against the Raiders is still unclear after last October's ACL surgery sidelined him for the preseason, including the finale. While the team says he's progressing ahead of schedule, there hasn't been much on-field proof yet. If active, he would be Drake Maye's primary receiving option and a startable play in all formats given the likely target volume, but it would be nice to see him actively involved before giving up a starting spot on our roster.


Sit 'em Deebo Samuel (WAS, WR)Deebo Samuel makes his Commanders debut in Week 1 against the Giants, and even versus an athletic defense he should offer a dependable floor through designed touches and work out of the backfield. Unfortunately, he's more of a real-world impact player than a fantasy asset right now - he finished 2024 with the 49ers as WR46 in fantasy PPG and posted a career-low 1.65 fantasy points per touch, operating more as a complementary piece than a focal target. Until Kliff Kingsbury's offense clarifies his week-to-week volume, it's best to avoid rostering him in fantasy.


Sit 'em Nick Chubb (HOU, RB)With Joe Mixon sidelined at least the first four weeks on the NFI list, Nick Chubb appears set to lead Houston's backfield in Week 1 at the Rams, though Dameon Pierce, rookie fourth-rounder Woody Marks and depth backs Dare Ogunbowale and British Brooks will all push for touches. Chubb, 29, managed just 3.3 yards per carry in eight games last season after returning from a major knee injury that limited him in 2023, but his career average of 5.1 YPC suggests upside - and if - a big IF - he secures the bulk of the work, he should be a reliable, volume-based flex while Mixon is out.


Sit 'em Colston Loveland (CHI, TE)The Bears will feature Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet as their top tight ends in Week 1 at home vs. Minnesota. The 10th overall pick missed spring work while rehabbing shoulder surgery but returned for a full preseason. As with many rookie tight ends, Loveland may need time to settle into Ben Johnson's offense, though he's expected to eventually overtake Kmet as the primary pass-catching option; early on, Kmet could still see more snaps. Loveland is slated to be Chicago's No. 1 TE for the opener, but for fantasy purposes he'll likely need to pile up yards rather than rely on touchdowns against a Vikings unit that allowed just three TE scores last season.


Sit 'em Brenton Strange (JAC, TE)Brenton Strange, the Jaguars' 2023 secondâround pick, will be Jacksonville's top tight end to start 2025 and makes his Week 1 debut at home against the Panthers after Evan Engram signed with Denver. With Engram out last season Strange caught 29 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns on 39 targets in eight games (about 34.4 yards per game), compared with just 11 catches for 136 yards on 14 targets when playing alongside Engram. Given Trevor Lawrence's tendency to target the position there's clear upside, but Strange projects as a TE2 to start the year - somewhat tempered by the fact Carolina allowed a leagueâhigh 11 TD catches to tight ends in 2024.


Sit 'em Tyler Loop (BAL, K)Selected in the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, Tyler Loop has claimed the Ravens' kicking job after a strong preseason (nine of 11 FGs, including two from 50 yards). Baltimore's high-powered offense should give him plenty of scoring chances as a rookie, but a hostile Week 1 trip to Buffalo could make him a less appealing fantasy option to start the season.


Sit 'em Atlanta Falcons (ATL, DEF)The Falcons' defense looks like it could become one of the NFL's better units, but that's unproven - and they open against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. In 2024 the Bucs averaged 28 points per game against Atlanta, with Baker Mayfield throwing three touchdowns in each matchup. When these teams meet, points usually pile up, so don't expect either defense to carry this game.

