Saquon Barkley (PHI)
Barkley led the league in total touches in 2024 and was one of the most consistent producers in fantasy. However, history has not been kind to running backs following 400+ touch seasons. Aging backs who've endured this level of workload tend to break down or suffer steep production cliffs the following year - guys like DeMarco Murray, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Arian Foster, and Ahman Green. Barkley will be 28 in 2025, has a lengthy injury history, and now plays in a system that may be more conservative with his usage. Barkley will still be drafted in the first round (and he belongs there), but just know that regression is coming and control your expectations appropriately.
Joe Mixon (HOU)
Mixon is entering the twilight of his career and now joins a Houston team with major question marks on the offensive line. The addition of Nick Chubb to the backfield creates uncertainty around goal-line work and snap share. Mixon has a history of missing games and isn't as explosive as he once was. With younger, cheaper talent in this rookie class and plenty of WR value available in his ADP range, Mixon is a risky investment that could quickly turn into a roster clogger.
Aaron Jones (MIN)
At 30 years old, Jones is fighting off Father Time and now must fend off Jordan Mason for touches in Minnesota. Despite playing all 17 games in 2024, his efficiency dropped significantly - ranking near the bottom in explosive runs and missed tackles forced. With Minnesota shifting toward a more balanced offense and Jones showing signs of decline, it's unlikely he holds up for another full season. Volume may dip, touchdowns could be scarce, and the ROI at his RB22 ADP feels like a losing bet.
Isiah Pacheco (KC)
Pacheco may have the starting job in title, but Kansas City's committee approach and unpredictable game scripts make him a dangerous pick. Kareem Hunt could poach goal-line carries, and gadget plays continue to chip away at red-zone volume. Pacheco's touchdown production was poor in 2024 - just one in his last seven games - and his weekly workload lacked consistency. Add in the arrivals of Elijah Mitchell and rookie Brashard Smith, and it's hard to trust Pacheco as more than a boom-bust RB3.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Stevenson could be phased out quickly by rookie TreVeyon Henderson, who fits the profile of a true workhorse. The Patriots' new coaching staff is clearly signaling a shift, and with Drake Maye expected to start, there's added risk of reduced checkdowns. Stevenson lacks elite speed, is inefficient as a receiver, and is likely playing his final season in New England. Even if he opens the year as the starter, he may not finish it that way.
Kyren Williams (LAR)
Williams was a workhorse in 2024, but his production was more volume-based than talent-driven. He ranked near the bottom in almost every advanced efficiency stat and struggled with ball security. The Rams continue investing in RBs, drafting Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter in back-to-back seasons. If either player cuts into Williams' workload, his fantasy value collapses. Without passing game usage and with Davante Adams now soaking up red-zone targets, Williams needs perfection in volume to pay off - and that's unlikely.
D'Andre Swift (CHI)
Swift has failed to deliver a top-15 season in any of his four years, finishing between RB18 and RB23 in half-PPR formats. He's now reunited with Ben Johnson, the coach who minimized his role in Detroit, and he's coming off a career-worst year in terms of efficiency. Chicago's offense may be improved, but Swift is more of a placeholder than a centerpiece. Rookie Kyle Monangai is already drawing praise, and Roschon Johnson remains in the mix. Swift's role is not as secure as it seems, and he's being drafted as if it is.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG)
Tracy started strong after taking over the Giants' backfield but faltered badly down the stretch. His final seven games were marred by sub-60-yard performances, and his ball security became a liability. Rookie Cam Skattebo is waiting in the wings with an all-purpose skill set, and veteran Devin Singletary still has the coaching staff's trust. In a weak offense with a committee looming, Tracy could find himself benched with one more misstep.
Breece Hall (NYJ)
Hall is an explosive talent, but the situation in New York is troubling. New HC Aaron Glenn has repeatedly said he wants to use all three of his backs - Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis. Even worse, the switch to Justin Fields at quarterback could zap Hall's receiving value, as Fields rarely targets RBs. Hall is being drafted like a surefire RB1, but in a potential three-headed committee with a mobile QB, he may disappoint.
James Cook (BUF)
Cook's 18-touchdown 2024 season looks more like an outlier than a breakout. His carry totals are modest, he's under 200 lbs, and he's never had a full workhorse role. Josh Allen's presence lowers Cook's receiving ceiling, and the team seems unwilling to commit long-term. Rookie Ray Davis looked great in Cook's absence and could steal more touches in 2025. Don't draft Cook hoping for a repeat of his 2024 spike - it's a risky bet on a player with limited durability and upside.
David Montgomery (DET)
Montgomery remains in a split backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, who continues to outshine him. With Ben Johnson gone and Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow retiring, Detroit's offensive engine may slow down. If touchdown opportunities decline even slightly, Montgomery - who relies heavily on goal-line work - could become a touchdown-or-bust flex play. At his current price, there's very little upside and plenty of ways things go wrong.
Final Word
These running backs come with built-in name value or impressive 2024 stats, but don't be fooled. Volume without efficiency, aging legs, competition for touches, or scheme changes could cause major regression. Fading the right players is often just as important as drafting the right ones. Build smarter, not harder.
