As fantasy football managers gear up for the 2025 season, avoiding landmines is just as important as uncovering breakout stars. Below is a breakdown of quarterbacks you might want to pass on during your drafts, even if their name recognition tempts you.
Baker Mayfield (TB)
Mayfield had a career year in 2024, throwing 41 touchdowns and posting career highs in virtually every category. But before you jump on the hype train, remember that prior to last season, he had never even cracked 30 TDs or 200 rushing yards. Regression is looming.
Tampa Bay's stacked receiving corps gives him a high ceiling, but the floor is shaky. He'll be working under a new offensive coordinator - his third in three years - which rarely bodes well for consistency. At an ADP of QB7, you're paying for 2024's peak. Don't chase points that may never come back.
Jared Goff (DET)
Goff looked like a top-tier fantasy option down the stretch in 2024, but context matters. His surge in production came while Detroit's defense crumbled, forcing more shootouts. With the unit expected to rebound in 2025, Goff's volume could fall off significantly.
The departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and retirement of All-Pro center Frank Ragnow are major red flags. Add in zero rushing upside, the league's highest bust rate among top-8 QBs, and a brutal outdoor schedule, and the picture gets even darker. Goff's median projection sits around QB21 - drafting him as a QB1 is a mistake.
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Herbert is a talented passer stuck in the wrong system. The Chargers ran one of the slowest, most ground-heavy offenses in 2024 under Greg Roman, and they doubled down by drafting RB Omarion Hampton. Without the pace or pass volume, Herbert won't get enough opportunities to post elite fantasy numbers.
He lacks the rushing output of other QBs in his range and has been trapped in a scheme that refuses to let him air it out. Unless the offensive identity changes drastically, Herbert is better left as a late-round flyer than a starting fantasy QB.
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
This one may sting, but Mahomes hasn't been a fantasy difference-maker for a while now. Despite his NFL greatness, he's finished as the QB8 and QB11 in points per game the last two seasons. Efficiency metrics like yards per attempt, completion percentage over expected, and deep ball accuracy have all dipped.
His fantasy floor remains steady due to volume, but the ceiling has disappeared - especially with the Chiefs still lacking a dominant WR1. At a mid-range QB1 price tag, you're better off grabbing cheaper options with more upside.
Final Thought
These quarterbacks may look like safe picks on paper, but fantasy success is about projecting future outcomes - not reliving past glory. Avoid overpaying for last year's production and aim for better values in 2025 drafts. Play smarter, not harder.
