This is the Fantasy Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season. Analysis is aggregated from multiple sources including FN. Rankings are based upon PPR (point per reception) scoring. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.
Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Justin Jefferson, Patrick Mahomes, or Christian McCaffrey. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.
Start 'em Kyler Murray (ARI, QB)After two games back, Kyler Murray is averaging 19.5 points per game. He has thrown for 200+ yards each game, rushed for at least 33 yards, and has a rushing touchdown in each. The Rams have given up 10 rushing scores this season, so what Kyler can do through the air and on the ground puts him in at a low-end QB1.
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13th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Joshua Dobbs (MIN, QB)Josh Dobbs is averaging 17 points per game on the season, but he's averaging 22.3 points since joining Minnesota. He'll face a Bears defense that has been fairly generous to QBs on the season although they've also locked several QBs down including Jared Goff last week (13.7 points). Still, with five straight games delivering a rushing touchdown, we're all-in on Dobbs as a low-end QB1 for Week 12.
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7th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Rachaad White (TB, RB)Rachaad White didn't see a lot of action on the ground last week (just nine attempts), but he did get into the endzone for the third consecutive week and saw seven targets. His value on the ground is complimented by what he can accomplish through the air, and we really like that against Indy this week. The Colts rank in the top third in most points allowed to RBs leaving White as a solid option for fantasy managers this week.
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8th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Kyren Williams (LAR, RB)The Rams have activated Kyren Williams off I.R., and while Williams certainly carries additional risk in his first game back, this matchup is exactly what we'd like to see to ease him back into the rigors of the NFL. When he last faced Arizona back in Week 6, he put up 21.8 points. He may not deliver the same result this week, but the potential is there for him to deliver RB2/Flex numbers.
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3rd Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Tank Dell (HOU, WR)Put simply: Tank Dell has outperformed expectations. Over his last three games, the rookie has delivered a whopping average of 25.8 points and 11.6 targets per game. While Jacksonville has a solid secondary, they have given up the fourth-most passing yards per game this season. We're expecting quite a bit of C.J. Stroud to Tank Dell in Week 12. Consider him a high-end WR2 for this week.
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15th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em D.J. Moore (CHI, WR)The move to Chicago has been beneficial for D.J. Moore who now sits inside the Top 10 Fantasy Wide Receivers. The last time he faced Minnesota was back in Week 6 and put up 10 fantasy points. If Justin Fields can find him like he did last week, Moore should be able to outperform their last meeting.
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7th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em Dalton Kincaid (BUF, TE)With at least 75 yards or a score in each of his last four games, Dalton Kincaid is benefiting from the absence of Dawson Knox. He has five straight games of double-digit fantasy points. He's the hot hand right now in a shallow position. Feel free to start as a TE1.
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11th Most Pts to TE
Start 'em New England Patriots (NE, DEF)Normally the Patriots are a must start defense, but 2023 has been a different year for them. They've largely disappointed fantasy managers, but a matchup with Tommy Devito and the Giants is exactly what they need to be a top streaming option for Week 12.
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Most pts to DEF
Start 'em Dustin Hopkins (CLE, K)The top fantasy kicker has another sweet matchup this week. As long as rookie quarterback Dorian-Thompson-Robinson can get them into field goal territory, Hopkins can put points on the board. He's kicked multiple field goals in six straight games. He could make it seven.
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8th Most Pts to K
Sit 'em Russell Wilson (DEN, QB)As the 14th top scoring QB on the season, Russell Wilson has put up better fantasy numbers than many fantasy managers give him credit for. He's also led Denver to four straight wins, but a matchup with the Browns is a difficult challenge. Nobody has given up fewer points to QBs this year than Cleveland. In fact, they've only allowed two QBs all season to score more than 14 points. This is a good time to leave Wilson on the bench.
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Feweset Pts to QB
Sit 'em Desmond Ridder (ATL, QB)We've learned that Desmond Ridder will get the starting job once again in Atlanta. Good news for Ridder - not exciting for fantasy purposes though. The Saints have been pretty solid against QBs giving up an average of just 15 points to them. Unless Ridder has suddenly advanced considerably since being demoted, this isn't the week to bank on him.
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14th Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em Chuba Hubbard (CAR, RB)It's certainly a timeshare in the Carolina backfield. Chuba Hubbard has averaged just 8.1 points over his last four games. Miles Sanders has been completely ineffective, but Carolina continues to share duties between the two. That can work against a bad defense, but Tennessee doesn't fit that bill. They've been solid against RBs this year giving up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to them. Without a heavy workload, Hubbard is a sit this week.
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10th Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em Devon Achane (MIA, RB)Despite the matchup potential, Achane presents considerable risk after suffering another knee issue in his return game last week. We'll see him in the first ever Black Friday NFL game against the Jets, but this really comes down to how much risk you're willing to take. Achane could put up another 1.5 points like last week or he could be that homerun threat like we saw in Weeks 3-5. This doesn't feel like the week to start him - too much risk - not enough reward. Achane is a sit for us.
UPDATE: De'Von Achane will be inactive for Week 12.
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7th Most Pts to RB
Sit 'em Aaron Jones (GB, RB)We're not expecting Aaron Jones to suit up tomorrow as he officially carries the Doubtful designation, but on a larger note, we're not confident about Aaron Jones for the remainder of the season. He's had just two good games all year (Weeks 1 and 9), but injuries and lack of usage have crippled his fantasy value. Minus those two games, he's averaging just 6.3 points. You may be able to completely drop him at this point.
UPDATE: Aaron Jones has been ruled out for Week 12.
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3rd Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em Marquise Brown (ARI, WR)With three straight games of 6 points or less, Marquise Brown has lost some of that Hollywood luster. With Kyler Murray back under center, Brown has just three catches for 46 yards over those two games. The Rams aren't going to be much easier on him as they've given up the 13th-fewest fantasy points on the year. Hollywood is more of a WR3/Flex for Week 12.
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13th Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em Courtland Sutton (DEN, WR)Courtland Sutton's game-winning touchdown last week was super impressive and it added to his eight receiving scores this year (second in the NFL), but he'll be touchdown-dependent against the Browns. Cleveland kept all of the Steeler receivers to single digits last week and has given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the position. Sutton is no more than a flex option and will need to find the endzone to deliver some turkey to fantasy managers this week.
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3rd Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em Pat Freiermuth (PIT, TE)Pat Freiermuth was activated off I.R. last week and delivered just 1 catch for 7 yards against a tough Cleveland defense. Dealing with injuries, he only has one game this season where he delivered double digits. Unfortunately, we can't count on him to deliver in this offense without more targets...even in a plus matchup.
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4th Most Pts to TE
Sit 'em Baltimore Ravens (BAL, DEF)The Ravens defense has typically had a permanent spot on most rosters; however, this week we're looking elsewhere for our DST points. The Chargers are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points on the season. As good as Baltimore is on this side of the ball, there are better options.
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3rd Fewest Pts to DEF
Sit 'em Wil Lutz (DEN, K)After a monster week against the Vikings where he put up 17 points, we're likely to see Wil Lutz come crashing back down to Earth this week against Cleveland. The Browns have allowed just one kicker all year to hit double digits and that was back in Week 2.
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3rd Fewest Pts to K
