Week 17 Start Sit Advice - Fantasy Championship

Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022 at 10:43 am ET

This is the Fantasy Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season. Analysis is aggregated from multiple sources including FN. Rankings are based upon PPR (point per reception) scoring. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, or Jalen Hurts. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.

Well, this is it. The Fantasy Championship! Months of setting lineups concludes with this week. As a general rule of thumb, continue to use the guys that got you here. Good luck! You got this!
Start 'em Dak Prescott (DAL, QB)
With back-to-back outings of at least 20 points and coming off a monster 347-yard, 3-TD performance, Dak Prescott is in a position to help you bring home a championship. The Titans have given up multiple 30+ point games this season including Trevor Lawrence's big 33 point day just two weeks ago. The Cowboys are getting hot at just the right time so keep riding the hot hand in this one.
4th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Jared Goff (DET, QB)
It may surprise you, but Jared Goff has been the 10th-best fantasy QB this season. When the Lions fall behind, the game script turns to Goff to try and bring them back as he tried to do last week throwing for 355 yards and 3 scores. Goff only put up 14 points against the Bears in Week 10, but since then he's thrown for multiple 300+ yard games and should rebound nicely.
10th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Aaron Rodgers (GB, QB)
There's a lot working against the reigning MVP, but if there was a game for him to redeem himself, this is it. The Packers need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. While Rodgers turned in his worst game of the year the last time he faced the Vikings in the season opener (just 3.7 points), he may be worth the risk as a low-end QB1 in an effort to bounce back. With the exception of a horrendous Matt Ryan, quarterbacks have put up at least 17 fantasy points against the Vikings since Week 10. Even Daniel Jones and his banged up receiving corp put up 20 fantasy points against them last week. Rodgers carries a lot of risk, but if your starting QB doesn't play (think Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, etc), Rodgers could be a plug and play option.
7th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em D'Andre Swift (DET, RB)
Normally D'Andre Swift would be an automatic start, but ask anyone if they appreciated his 3.5 points last week or the 6.9 points two week prior, and they'll tell you about their hesitancy to start him. Swift is the 27th-best fantasy RB on the season making him an RB3 overall, but with a banged up Jamaal Williams, Swift could be in store for some additional work and could be a high-end RB2 in Week 17.
6th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Cam Akers (LAR, RB)
This one is all about volume and Cam Akers should see plenty of it - perhaps not as much as last week when he ran 23 times for 118 yards, but enough to keep him in RB2/Flex discussions. The variance on Akers' projections this week tells us that most project him near his floor, but his ceiling is high enough to keep things interesting. Assuming the Rams lean on the run game, Akers could do very well against a Chargers team that ranks inside the Top 10 in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
8th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR)
This is a tough matchup no matter how you slice it, but it will be Mike White back under center with the Jets this week and we have a pretty good idea what to expect between White and Wilson. The Seattle corners are no joke, so our expectations are certainly tempered here, but Wilson could still turn in a WR3/Flex performance.
4th Fewest Pts to WR
Start 'em Amari Cooper (CLE, WR)
Let's face it. Deshaun Watson has not lit the fantasy world on fire since returning to action, but Amari Cooper has quickly become his favorite target. Watson targeted him 10 times last week, and a return to double digits is likely in this one. The key for Cooper is to be as efficient as possible with those targets. Washington has definitely been respectable in this area, but given the expected volume, Cooper remains a nice WR3/Flex candidate for the fantasy championship.
14th Fewest Pts to WR
Start 'em Allen Lazard (GB, WR)
Targeted 11 times last week, Allen Lazard will need to be more efficient and capable in what can only be described as a must-win game for Green Bay. Fortunately, the Vikings give up the second most receiving yards and the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. A banged up Christian Watson helps Lazard here as well. If Lazard can be productive with his catches, his ceiling is significant enough to warrant starting consideration.
Most pts to WR
Start 'em Dalton Schultz (DAL, TE)
Dalton Schultz has left fantasy owners disappointed the last two weeks, but he's in a good spot to redeem himself in the championship against a very beatable Tennessee defense. It was the Titans after all who gave Evan Engram the best performance of his career three weeks ago, and it's the Titans who give up the second most yards through the air. Schultz should be a low-end TE1 this week.
4th Most Pts to TE
Start 'em Cole Kmet (CHI, TE)
The tight end position has been a tough one to predict this season, but if you're comfortable with some risk (and frankly, at this point who isn't with tight ends), Cole Kmet could provide some fantasy points for you. He put up 23.4 points when he faced Detroit back in Week 10 - his best game of the year. We're dipping back into this well when Kmet travels to Detroit who is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
6th Most Pts to TE
Start 'em New York Giants (NYG, DEF)
With no Jonathan Taylor and a QB situation that is simply ugly, the Colts' offense is in shambles. Not great for the Indy skill positions, but it's exactly what you want to see if you have the Giants defense. Indianapolis gives up the third most fantasy points to the position making them a must-start for the championship week.
3rd Most Pts to DEF
Start 'em Younghoe Koo (ATL, K)
Younghoe Koo likely watched last week's TB/ARI game with special interest. Ryan Succop delivered 13 fantasy points against the Cardinals and Koo could very well do the same this week. He's made multiple field goals in four of his last five games. If you're streaming a kicker for the final game this season, Koo is an excellent option.
6th Most Pts to K
Sit 'em Russell Wilson (DEN, QB)
Despite an incredibly-favorable matchup (the Chiefs give up the third most fantasy points), Russell Wilson is nowhere near starting territory for fantasy owners. It got so bad last week that he was benched for Brett Rypien. Wilson's only 3-touchdown game this year came when he faced the Chiefs back in Week 14, but his play has been so erratic that you simply can't trust him to repeat that performance. Unfortunately for Broncos fans and Wilson owners, this season is going to go down as the most disappointing one for Wilson in virtually every aspect.
3rd Most Pts to QB
Sit 'em Derek Carr (LV, QB)
Pop quiz: what do you get when you combine a player who has tied his career-high in interceptions with a defense that ranks inside the Top 5 in fewest passing touchdowns allowed? The answer is simple: a fantasy QB who should not be anywhere near your starting lineup. Carr simply presents too much risk given his turnovers during the last few weeks. With pressure, he's prone to making mistakes. Those mistakes led him to average just 9.4 fantasy points over his last three games.
UPDATE: The Raiders plan to start Jarrett Stidham instead of Derek Carr this week.
5th Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em Jeff Wilson (MIA, RB)
Whether you have Jeff Wilson or Raheem Mostert, neither guy should be near your lineup this week. Wilson salvaged his day last week with a one-yard score, but with only nine carries, the workload split between the two limits the upside of both players. Add in the fact that New England has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points on the season to opposing backs, and even a flex spot may be asking too much.
3rd Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em James Cook (BUF, RB)
After back-to-back double digit games and rushing for a season (and career) high 99 yards last week, you may be tempted to keep James Cook in your flex spot. Resist that urge. Devin Singletary still holds the edge in carries, and while it was fun to watch them against Chicago, the Bengals present a different matchup. Cincy gives up the 7th-fewest yards on the ground and ranks inside the Top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed. An argument could be made for Singletary in the flex spot, but Cook should keep the bench warm.
9th Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em Darius Slayton (NYG, WR)
It was nice to see Daniel Jones take advantage of Darius Slayton's speed downfield last week, but that was against the Vikings. In an easy matchup, Slayton turned in just 11.9 points. Unfortunately, he'll slide to the other end of the scale this week against an Indy secondary that has been far tougher on receivers giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to them on the season.
6th Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em George Pickens (PIT, WR)
This is tough to write as George Pickens remains one of the most dynamic and talented receivers in the league, but the QB play in Pittsburgh hasn't been conducive to fantasy success. Pickens put up 10 points against the Ravens back in Week 14 and could certainly repeat making him a flex option for Week 17. If Drake London could put up double digits last week against Baltimore, it seems reasonable that Pickens should be able to as well. He's on the sit list as a precaution to lower your expectations in this one. His QB situation is ugly and that's why he's ranked 50th among receivers this week.
9th Most Pts to WR
Sit 'em Julio Jones (TB, WR)
Long gone is the dominant receiver that Julio Jones has been most of his career. Left in his place is a guy who is now the fourth option on just his team. He only has three games this year of double-digit production, so even in a plus matchup (Carolina is in the Top 5 in points allowed), Jones can't be trusted to deliver.
4th Most Pts to WR
Sit 'em Hayden Hurst (CIN, TE)
For a moment, it looked like Hayden Hurst might have been able to give it a go last week, but alas he was ruled out. Assuming that the 5th-year veteran suits up this week, he's not a viable option against the Bills. Buffalo has kept tight ends in check all year surrendering the second fewest fantasy points to them. Only one tight end (Travis Kelce) has been able to put up big points against them. Hurst can be dropped.
2nd Fewest Pts to TE
Sit 'em Juwan Johnson (NO, TE)
After making two trips to the end zone in Week 15, Juwan Johnson followed that performance up with just two targets last week. That's the kind of roller coaster that Johnson can take you on - especially in the tight end position. We've graded him a "C" for his consistency, so unless boom-or-bust is what excites you along with a ridiculously tough matchup, Johnson belongs on your bench.
9th Fewest Pts to TE
Sit 'em Cincinnati Bengals (CIN, DEF)
The Bengals defense has been pretty solid, and as ESPN analysts point out, they were "quite stingy last week until a late flurry by Mac Jones and New England". Still, we wouldn't trust them in the championship against Josh Allen and the Bills who are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points this season.
4th Fewest Pts to DEF
Sit 'em Evan McPherson (CIN, K)
We're not picking on the Bengals (we swear), but Evan McPherson should not be near fantasy lineups this week. With five missed field goals on the season and just two games all year with double-digit production, now is not the time to trust him. The Bills give up the second-fewest fantasy points to kickers.
2nd Fewest Pts to K

Join the Discussion

tramz18 CommentedDec 28, 2022 11:32 am

This isn't start -sit ? But i would like you guy's expertice on this ? This is in my Dynasty League it's full PPR.
I do not have a 2023 1st rd pick i have 2 2nd's and 2 3rd's. I have been offered D.Samuel & A.Gibson for D.Pierce & R.Moore and a 2nd rd pick in 2023. Thought's should i do it? It's a 10 team league and i will have the 12th pick in 2nd rd.

hogs1959 CommentedDec 28, 2022 4:19 pm

I would do it

Cry me a Rivers CommentedDec 28, 2022 5:19 pm

Probably would do that

bluenotes CommentedDec 28, 2022 5:59 pm

I'd take the side of Dameon Pierce

Nerd CommentedDec 29, 2022 9:44 am

I'd take that deal. Good luck!

Fernando Echeverria CommentedDec 28, 2022 12:38 pm

I am playing Championship this week, i need to use two WR from this options: Diontae J, London, Dotson, DJ Moore, Watson, PPR league, one WR and one FLEX, i also have AJ Dillon for FLEX

hogs1959 CommentedDec 28, 2022 4:59 pm

Moore, Johnson, and then Watson

bluenotes CommentedDec 28, 2022 6:20 pm

DJ Moore and Diontae Johnson.

Nerd CommentedDec 29, 2022 9:41 am

Lots of options there. I like Moore and Johnson, but call me crazy, I also kind of like Drake London in the flex. Good luck!

Butkus78 CommentedDec 29, 2022 11:04 am

Jags or Pats defense
Etienne, rhamadre, walker III
C. Watson, Tee Higgins, D. Smith
Which should I start? And do u trust J.Fields?

mrock CommentedDec 29, 2022 5:58 pm

Pats defense.
How many players do you start and what is the scoring format?
Yes, I would trust Fields.

david t gray CommentedDec 31, 2022 3:00 pm

I only trust Fields if his foot is close to 100%. If not, his passing alone probably doesn't cut it due to his very limited receiving options. Who's your backup QB?

malevolentone CommentedDec 29, 2022 11:42 am

Argh, do I trust Zeke tonight?
PPR so not much value there but he has scored in eight straight games.

Nerd CommentedDec 29, 2022 1:19 pm

No Tony Pollard (inactive) so Zeke should get all the action that he wants...

mrock CommentedDec 29, 2022 5:56 pm

I think Zeke is going to run all over them.

Big Daddi CommentedDec 29, 2022 3:31 pm

I can start three of these guys: Mixon, Zeke Elliott, T. Allgeier, B. Robinson, Rachaad White ????

mrock CommentedDec 29, 2022 5:56 pm

Not sure what your scoring system is, but I would start Mixon, Elliott, and Brian Robinson.

mrock CommentedDec 29, 2022 5:58 pm

AJ Dillon or Zonovan Knight in PPR?

Nerd CommentedDec 29, 2022 6:07 pm

AJ Dillon. Good luck!

mrock CommentedDec 31, 2022 10:35 am


Ed Chan CommentedDec 30, 2022 3:44 pm

1/2 PPR championship as a massive underdog, so need some help to maximize the points! Just like last week, I'm not sure who to trust at WR and to flex. Currently starting Sutton and Lazard at WR and flexing RB Moss. Have M. Brown, Chark, DPJ, Thielen, Hubbard and picked up Dotson, who is tempting to start or flex given his hot hand lately. Any of these guys are capable of dishing double digit points or low single points on any given week. Greatly appreciate the advice!

mrock CommentedDec 31, 2022 10:39 am

I would be willing to start Dotson or Chark over Sutton.

Banner2 CommentedDec 31, 2022 12:19 pm

Championship Game - Full PPR
Pick 3
Fournette, Akers, Walker, Chubb

If Watson doesn’t play Chark or Doubs?

mrock CommentedDec 31, 2022 1:15 pm

Fournette, Chubb, Walker

Chark if Watson can't go

Michael Andrew Egeland CommentedDec 31, 2022 2:34 pm

Who would you start half ppr: Amari Cooper or Terry McLaurin?

david t gray CommentedDec 31, 2022 3:03 pm

Cooper. Wentz doesn't throw to McLaurin nearly as much as Heinicke for whatever reason.

Rambo22 CommentedDec 31, 2022 4:30 pm

Lifetime Washington fan here. It's really close for me. Cooper is a good option but his QB hasn't been good either. I would start Scary Terry. The only way Wentz does well is by getting him involved.

Amy Rinck CommentedDec 31, 2022 2:39 pm

Who would you start?
Patriots or Kansas City?

I also have Higgins, Waddle, and Metcalf. I know Metcalf doesn’t have a good matchup, so I was thinking of starting Alleiger. Thoughts?

Rambo22 CommentedDec 31, 2022 4:33 pm

Kansas City over New England this week. I wouldn't start Allgeier over any of those guys. He has been doing well lately but those other guys including Metcalf have much higher potential.

hogs1959 CommentedDec 31, 2022 4:38 pm

How can you argue with a guy named Rambo?

TimmyT CommentedDec 31, 2022 2:46 pm

Atl DEF with 4th string QB for AZ or Tampa vs. Carolina? I'm freaked with DEF since DEN screwed me out of championship round LW.

hogs1959 CommentedDec 31, 2022 4:41 pm


Nerd CommentedDec 31, 2022 5:37 pm

I think Tampa is probably the safe play, but Atlanta is intriguing for the very same reason that you highlighted. ATL will likely pressure David Blough all game, and with DeAndre Hopkins ruled out already, that's one less weapon.

This all comes down to your tolerance for risk. Again, Tampa Bay is the safe play so if you think your matchup will be close, then roll with the Bucs. If you're swinging for the fences, the Falcons might surprise folks. Either way - good luck! I'll be thinking of this question each time I see the score of the game.

Clarke Caudill CommentedDec 31, 2022 3:05 pm

Dynasty 1/2 PPR league- can run any valid formation…if you go with 2 RBs, have to play a TE.

Options are:
Zay Jones

Nerd CommentedDec 31, 2022 4:49 pm

Not sure I understand the question. If it's for this week, I'd go Stevenson and Lamb but Lamb already played. If you're looking for another WR, I'd go Higgins. Good luck!

Clarke Caudill CommentedDec 31, 2022 8:04 pm

Sorry, essentially Im asking if I should go Zay Jones or DJ Moore.

Nerd CommentedJan 1, 2023 10:00 am

I know the rankings have Zay Jones ahead, but I'd go DJ Moore. The Jags have nothing to play for this week (they do in Week 18), and while Doug Pederson has said that he won't rest his starters, I'm not fully convinced that he doesn't limit some of them. Jones was quiet last week where Moore is the clear #1 in that offense and maintains a larger share of the targets. Good luck!

ksoup45 CommentedDec 31, 2022 3:08 pm

Trevor Lawrence or Goff? Leaning Goff given the Jags incentive this weekend.

Nerd CommentedDec 31, 2022 5:29 pm

It's close for me, but I'd still give a slight edge to Lawrence. Good luck!

Nerd CommentedJan 1, 2023 7:40 pm

So sorry that I got this one wrong. I also had Lawrence in one of my championship games. Needless to say, that matchup was close and his 5 points isn't going to do it for me.

hogs1959 CommentedDec 31, 2022 4:41 pm

Does Nerd only comment on the users with the icons next to their name? I assume that those are paying users? No offense. I'm just curious.

Nerd CommentedDec 31, 2022 4:50 pm

LOL - not always. Depends upon how much time I have. If I'm short on time, then yes, I do prioritize the premium members first, but that doesn't mean that I won't throw my opinion on others as well. Sometimes it also depends upon what others have already commented on.

pattymelt CommentedDec 31, 2022 5:23 pm

he has answered my questions before and i just have the free membership. love the site and the advice.

Kent1218 CommentedDec 31, 2022 6:10 pm

Playing in my League championship. Should I start Josh Allen @ Cincinnati or
Justin Fields @ Detroit?
Fields has much better matchup but I feel like Allen has a safer floor this week.

hogs1959 CommentedJan 1, 2023 4:01 am

Josh Allen. Don't overthink it man.

Rambo22 CommentedJan 1, 2023 7:01 am


Dina CommentedJan 1, 2023 10:01 am

Josh Allen is going to go crazy. #BillsMafia.

T-Jugg CommentedJan 1, 2023 12:56 am

Great season guys, thanks for all the advice. One last question - need one RB and two flex (PPR) from the following:
Miles Sanders, Tyler Allgeier, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, and Tyler Lockett.

Nerd CommentedJan 1, 2023 9:55 am

Sanders, McLaurin, and Kirk. Good luck!

Dina CommentedJan 1, 2023 10:03 am

I would also start Miles Sanders, Terry McLaurin, and Christian Kirk. Allgeier is too unproven and Lockett just had surgery on his finger.

Wbaconus CommentedJan 1, 2023 10:11 am

Going into the championships with some tough decisions.

Rachaad White or Singletary?
Kirk or Slayton/ Hodgins?

mrock CommentedJan 1, 2023 10:32 am

Singletary over White
Kirk over the Giants receivers

Nerd CommentedJan 1, 2023 10:39 am


c30341 CommentedJan 1, 2023 12:11 pm

Sorry for the last minute question but, Walker or Stevenson at RB this week???? thanks

Nerd CommentedJan 1, 2023 12:13 pm

Stevenson - good luck!

MrHappy CommentedJan 1, 2023 7:32 pm

I started Rodgers and Cooper because of this article and wanted to come back and say thank you. I planned to start Swift because I did not have a better option but you made me more confident starting him.

Thank you for a great season. I won my league.

Nerd CommentedJan 1, 2023 7:39 pm

Thank you. Love that you won your league!

Rodgers and Cooper did well today, but I'm still kicking myself for getting the Goff/Lawrence and some of the others wrong. I assure you that I take to heart any bad advice that I've provided. Hopefully the good advice evens it out.

I'm very happy that you won your league! Congrats!!!

tramz18 CommentedJan 11, 2023 8:55 pm

I have a question would love you guy's expert opinion. In my Dynasty league full PPR
i have been offered DK Metcalf/ C.Samuels/ K.Gainwell for my D,Pierce/D.Johnson and my 2023 2.02 pick.
Im thinking of doing it. Should i pull the trigger?

Nerd CommentedJan 12, 2023 8:01 pm

I don't know that I would pull the trigger on that. I think you can get more. Good luck!

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