Week 4 Start/Sit Advice

Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 at 9:56 pm ET

This is the Fantasy Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season. Analysis is aggregated from multiple sources including FN. Rankings are based upon PPR (point per reception) scoring. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Jonathan Taylor, Travis Kelce, or Cooper Kupp. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.

Start 'em Tom Brady (TB, QB)
A matchup with the Chiefs usually results in fantasy points, and Tom Brady owners could use a week like that. The Chiefs have given up seven touchdowns during their first three games, and they've given up an average of almost 20 fantasy points each week. Brady is a low-end QB1 this week. Feel free to start him.
9th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Aaron Rodgers (GB, QB)
With a new receiving corp, Aaron Rodgers has not played at an MVP level yet this season, but this could be the week that we see him turn in a nice fantasy performance. He's ranked inside our Top 12 facing a Pats defense that will certainly rattle him but has also allowed an average of two passing touchdowns this season. Lamar Jackson put up 39 points against them in Week 1.
8th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Russell Wilson (DEN, QB)
The Russell Wilson experiment in Denver hasn't paid off just yet, but if there was an opportunity to turn things around, a matchup with the Raiders should do that. An injured Justin Herbert put up 23 points last week and Las Vegas has given up over 22 fantasy points each week.
7th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL, RB)
The great thing about Cordarrelle Patterson (other than the fact that he's ranked 12th this week on FN) is that he has the ability to turn any touch into something big. With the exception of Week 2 against the Rams, he has delivered 22 fantasy points each week. The Browns will be a good test for him, but Patterson's usage shows no sign of abating.
12th Fewest Pts to RB
Start 'em James Robinson (JAC, RB)
Believe it or not, but James Robinson has been the third best fantasy running back after three weeks. He has delivered double-digit fantasy production each week and faces an Eagles defense that can be had. D'Andre Swift racked up 26 points in Week 1 and Antonio Gibson pulled down 11 points against them last week. Keep Robinson in your RB2 slot.
8th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Dameon Pierce (HOU, RB)
Dameon Pierce has steadily increased his workload and fantasy points during the first three games. We saw him tote the ball 20 times last week and score his first rushing touchdown. Don't be surprised if he hits the 100 yard mark this week against a Chargers defense that has been very generous to running backs.
5th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Amari Cooper (CLE, WR)
Amari Cooper has clearly become Jacoby Brissett's #1 option. Cleveland's backfield 1-2 punch of Chubb/Hunt means that defenses have to respect the run and can't always double up on Cooper who has back to back weeks of at least 23 fantasy points. He also has back to back weeks of 101 receiving yards and a score. Keep him locked in for a plus matchup with the Falcons.
4th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em Christian Kirk (JAC, WR)
Christian Kirk is exactly what Trevor Lawrence needed to kick start the season. A matchup with Darius Slay and the Eagles is not exactly exciting, but with an average of nine targets per game, volume is our friend here. Terry McLaurin came back to fantasy life last week against Philly so we're anticipating another solid day from him.
15th Fewest Pts to WR
Start 'em Chris Olave (NO, WR)
The WR to own on the Saints is not named Michael Thomas. It's Chris Olave. The rookie is coming off back to back weeks of 13 targets. That's tremendous volume, and even in tough matchups, he's worth starting consideration right now. He's a WR3 in our rankings but don't be surprised if he finishes as a WR2 again.
11th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em Zach Ertz (ARI, TE)
Keep Zach Ertz in your lineups. This is going to be a tough matchup for him, but Murray obviously loves this guy. He's looked his way 21 times over the past two games and Ertz has delivered double-digit production every week. Carolina will certainly challenge him, but the volume is what keeps Ertz in low-end TE1 discussions.
7th Fewest Pts to TE
Start 'em T.J. Hockenson (DET, TE)
It was nice to finally see T.J. Hockenson in the endzone last week. He only had three catches but that could change against the Seahawks who have been generous to tight ends including giving up almost 14 points to Kyle Pitts in Week 1.
9th Most Pts to TE
Start 'em Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT, DEF)
When the Steelers lost T.J. Watt, many feared that the Steel Curtain would be lifted. Those fears haven't materialized, and a matchup with Zach Wilson (fresh off his injury) and the Jets is exactly what fantasy owners want to see. Keep Pittsburgh in your DEF spot.
8th Most Pts to DEF
Start 'em Younghoe Koo (ATL, K)
The best fantasy kicker after three games has been Younghoe Koo. Keep him in your lineups as he faces a Browns defense that hasn't allowed a double-digit day yet. We think that will change this week as Atlanta looks for any way to put points on the board.
14th Fewest Pts to K
Sit 'em Carson Wentz (WAS, QB)
He may be the 6th-best fantasy QB after three weeks, but there is no reason to start Carson Wentz this week unless you're in a 2QB league. He's going to struggle against the Cowboys this week. Dallas has allowed just 180 passing yards per game and just 14.3 fantasy points.
10th Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em Baker Mayfield (CAR, QB)
This is a decent matchup on paper, but Baker Mayfield has not lit the fantasy world on fire. He's consistently delivered an average of 14 fantasy points each week, but he is barely completing half of his passes and D.J. Moore has not been fantasy-relevant since Mayfield's arrival. Arizona blitzes the pocket with a great deal of frequency which will likely leave Mayfield (and fantasy owners) scrambling.
6th Most Pts to QB
Sit 'em Tua Tagovailoa (MIA, QB)
Of his three starts this year, Tua Tagovailoa has had one big game. Judging by all of the Tua-truthers on Twitter, you would have thought that we were all crazy to even think something critical of Tua. He's dealing with multiple injuries this week and playing a stout Bengals defense that ranks inside the Top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed. Could he bust out a big game? Possibly, but we're not counting on it.
Update: This was written prior to Thursday Night's game. While we still wouldn't have recommended a Tua start, we are just as concerned with his injury as the rest of the fantasy community and wish him a speedy recovery.
3rd Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em Travis Etienne (JAC, RB)
It's clear that the backfield in Jacksonville 1) belongs to James Robinson, and 2) Travis Etienne has not been the dual threat that many analysts thought he would be. Etienne has averaged just 9 fantasy points this year. Until he becomes a bigger part of this offense, it's going to be a struggle to find a starting spot for him in anything but the deepest of leagues.
8th Most Pts to RB
Sit 'em J.D. McKissic (WAS, RB)
One thing we can say about J.D. McKissic is that he's been pretty consistent. He's averaging 10 fantasy points each week - not on the ground but rather through the air. He's seeing just three carries each week, but he has been targeted 19 times in the passing game. Still, there's not enough volume here against Dallas to warrant starting consideration beyond a potential flex option.
10th Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em Damien Harris (NE, RB)
How will the touches be spread out among the Patriots' running backs this week? Good question. If it's similar to last week, we would anticipate Rhamondre Stevenson continuing to eat into Damien Harris' workload. The Green Bay defense can be run on, but Harris has largely become a touchdown-dependent back and he'll need to find the endzone at Lambeau to be worth starting.
8th Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em Jerry Jeudy (DEN, WR)
Did you know that in his three-year career, Jerry Jeudy has only 4 touchdowns? One of those touchdowns came in Week 1 against Seattle, but Jeudy has declined steadily over the last two seasons. Injuries have certainly hurt his fantasy value, but this Denver offense hasn't quite found its rhythm yet leaving Jeudy out of even the flex discussion.
12th Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em D.J. Moore (CAR, WR)
When you drafted D.J. Moore, you certainly didn't expect him to be the 62nd best fantasy wide receiver. Yet - that's where we're at. Reality (and Baker Mayfield) has not been kind to Moore. He has just 88 receiving yards...total. He's averaging just 7.9 fantasy points (PPR). That kind of fantasy production is not what we need out of him. If he and Mayfield cannot find some chemistry, Moore is in danger of being droppable.
16th Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em Allen Robinson (LAR, WR)
Allen Robinson found the endzone in Week 2, but without that touchdown, he would be averaging just 5 fantasy points each week. He hasn't seen more than five targets in any game with the Rams, and for now, he's benchable until he's able to capitalize on the few targets that he sees each week.
2nd Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em Irv Smith Jr (MIN, TE)
This is not the week to start Irv Smith. After pulling in just two of his six targets last week, Smith is struggling to find his place on this team. He has actually missed more targets than he has been able to pull in this season. The Saints have been brutal on tight ends this year making Smith a great candidate to ride the pines.
3rd Fewest Pts to TE
Sit 'em Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN, TE)
One of the hyped TE sleepers from this preseason has been Albert Okwuegbunam. Unfortunately, Albert O hasn't been able to do much in this offense. He has been targeted just four times over the last two games and pulled in just one of those targets. He hasn't seen the endzone yet, and his lack of usage makes him unstartable even in favorable matchups.
6th Most Pts to TE
Sit 'em Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, DEF)
The Bucs have a great defense - both from a fantasy perspective as well as from an NFL perspective. They will be challenged this week when they face Patrick Mahomes and a talented Chiefs offense. Kansas City has not been kind to opposing defenses giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to them on the season.
3rd Fewest Pts to DEF
Sit 'em Matt Gay (LAR, K)
Matt Gay hasn't been bad per se (17th best kicker on the season), but San Francisco has been very tough on opposing kickers. In fact, no other team has given up fewer points to the position than the Niners. Stream another kicker this week.
Feweset Pts to K

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jamisdiablo CommentedOct 1, 2022 11:35 am

great write-up as usual! Not sure I could start olave with no winston or russ wilson until that offense shows me more, but alas, i have another question... would you dare start kamara in a full pt PPR league over Hollywood Brown or Romeo Doubs? I'd like to think if Dalton starts he'll actually dumpoff to Kamara, but that Oline is so bad right now I'm not sure I can start him over those other guys...? thanks!

Nerd CommentedOct 1, 2022 1:43 pm

I'm in a similar situation with Kamara. I'm starting Kamara but I'm not as confident as in years past. I can see the case for Hollywood here though.

mrock CommentedOct 1, 2022 4:23 pm

I would start Marquise Brown but if you do that then Kamara will have a big game. LOL

Drew Shoemaker CommentedOct 1, 2022 2:05 pm

Do I bench CMC or Lenny for Jamaal Williams or Pierce? I can play 3 of them. Also need a WR2 option of Cooks, Hollywood, Gabe Davis, Doubs, Dotson

mrock CommentedOct 1, 2022 4:24 pm

I would not bench McCaffrey but I would put Williams in for Fournette.

Nerd CommentedOct 1, 2022 4:45 pm

I would probably still go CMC, Fournette, Williams, and Pierce in that order.

I'd play Hollywood out of those WR options. Good luck!

dick temple CommentedOct 1, 2022 3:17 pm

Do I bench Mike Williams for Doubs or Dotson or stay with Williams?

mrock CommentedOct 1, 2022 4:25 pm

Stay with Williams

Nerd CommentedOct 1, 2022 4:46 pm

No Keenan Allen this week. I'd still roll with Mike Williams. Good luck!

mrock CommentedOct 1, 2022 4:26 pm

On the main slate for Fan Duel, would you pick Kyler Murray instead of Justin Herbert? They both have the same number of prj pts but Murray is $200 less.

Nerd CommentedOct 1, 2022 4:47 pm

A case can be made for both, but I'd take Murray and put that $200 against another position. Good luck!

T-Jugg CommentedOct 1, 2022 10:49 pm

PPR flex:
Bateman (worried about weather) or Akers?

Nerd CommentedOct 2, 2022 8:49 am

I'd play Bateman

Robsta CommentedOct 2, 2022 8:44 am

1/2 PPR:

K Allen and M Thomas both out this week, so I need to pick TWO of these players in the FLEX.

Javonte Williams , J Robinson, C Samuel or R Doubs.

Am leaning Williams and Robinson?

Nerd CommentedOct 2, 2022 8:50 am

That's where I'm leaning as well

Ryan Peart CommentedOct 2, 2022 9:36 am

Do I go with rashad penny or James Conner this week

Nerd CommentedOct 2, 2022 10:18 am


jamisdiablo CommentedOct 2, 2022 10:52 am

Since I had to sit Kamara, I now have an interesting dilemna... 1pt. PPR league... start 2 from CPatterson, EElliott, TPollard, RDoubs or MGallup? If Patterson starts I think I go Patt and Doubs, but if Patterson doesn't start, I'm thinking maybe I go Zeke and Pollard against the hapless Skins and get ALL the Cowboys backfield points... thoughts? (Also thinking let Gallup get a game under his belt before I start him, although I see Dallas destroying the skins today in every facet...) Thanks!

Nerd CommentedOct 2, 2022 10:55 am

I'm with you on Cordarrelle Patterson but I might go Zeke over Doubs. If Patterson doesn't go, then I agree - go with the DAL backfield. Also - I'm with you and waiting on Gallup to see how his first game goes. Good luck!

jamisdiablo CommentedOct 2, 2022 11:04 am


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