I want to start off by saying that only one of these guys should be taken off your draft boards completely, and that is the first name on the list. For the rest, if they start to fall a couple rounds where they become values, by all means scoop them up. Due to the risks associated with each, this is my list of guys that I will be trying to have almost no shares of.
Deshaun Watson - I figured that this one would go without saying, but Watson's current ADP is still QB17. Guys, the NFL has been consistent in waiting as long as possible to make their decision in cases like his. He is listed as the QB4 for the Texans on their depth chart. He has stated himself that he will be refusing to play for the Texans this season and that he wants to be traded. Let's not forget that over 20+ women have come forward and accused him of sexual nisconduct. I believe we will see him on the Commissioner's Exempt List here in the coming weeks, and he will most likely stay on that list until the legal issues are resolved. I don't think he'll play a single snap this year. If you draft this guy, are you really going to stash him on your bench for half the season hoping these legal issues are resolved? Even then you're hoping it happens before the trade deadline so that he can be traded somewhere where he will actually play. That's the big plan, really? Just don't waste your time on this guy. If you're going to stash a QB this year, go with Trey Lance or Justin Fields. They offer the upside of Watson as a player, yet they could actually play sooner than Watson does this year. They also don't have any of the legal baggage that Watson does.
Kenny Golladay - The 2nd guy on my list is Kenny Golladay. He is being tossed on the "Do Not Draft" list for a couple of reasons. The first is that he's being drafted way too high (even the 5th round is too high for this guy). He has been very touchdown-dependent in his career and joined an offense that doesn't score a ton of TDs. There are a lot of other mouths to feed around him including camp standout Sterlin Shepard, a 1st round rookie, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, plus a returning Saquon Barkley. Do we really think that just because they've surrounded Daniel Jones with talent, it means he can throw for 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs when he's barely cracked 3,000 yards so far in his career? Especially when they're still going to be a run-first team and not risk the turnovers that come with Daniel Jones. That leads me to my next point, how is he going to be as good as he was last year with a downgrade at QB? The number of targets he'll get in this offense when there are so many other weapons will be less than he ever got in Detroit. Now let's get to his competition for targets: Shepard, Slayton, and Engram - all of whom have good chemistry with Jones. The Giants added John Ross, a former 1st round pick who has flashed major talent but can't stay healthy, and they drafted a wide receiver in the first round who they "love" in Toney. Plus to make matters worse, he suffered a hamstring injury in camp. Usually that wouldn't be too serious, but with him looking at missing weeks, and not days, injuries like that tend to pop back up all season long. There's just way too many red flags for someone I'm going to have to rely on as my WR1 or WR2.
Miles Sanders - What are we going to do with Miles Sanders? He was the breakout RB last year for a lot of people in August. With a season filled with injuries and drops that should have people moving off him, he is currently being drafted as the RB17 right in between C.E.H and Montgomery. One of those guys has a backfield with no real competition in KC other than Darrell Williams, and the other guy finished as the RB4 last year. Sanders finished as the RB23. Drops have become such an issue that he had 22 fewer receptions and half the receiving 1st downs from his rookie season. They even drafted a guy who in college strictly specialized in catching the ball like an RB at Memphis in Kenneth Gainwell. They have Jalen Hurts who is a mobile QB who will no doubt steal some TDs and rushing attempts. They still have Jordan Howard who will inexplicably get goal-line carries still, and they still like Boston Scott. The new coach Nick Siriani will handle play-calling duties and has already said there won't be a workhorse back in this backfield. The last time Siriani called plays was in 2011 after the Chiefs fired Todd Haley. After Siriani took over, the backfield was split, and I think this backfield will be a lot more split than people think. Without the passing game work and missing out on a couple of TDs, it could drastically change where an RB finishes at the season's end - especially when they draft that RB in the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Marquise Brown - This is not the speedster I'm looking to draft this year. We've been going through this the last two years hoping that he would be the next Tyreek Hill, but that's not what he is. He's not built the same as Hill. He doesn't have the QB that Hill has either. I don't think we will see Brown have a better season than he did last year either with over 100 targets and 8 touchdowns. With Bateman and Watkins there now, Duverney has another year in the system and all 3 have had great camps so far. I believe that this will be a run-first offense and they already have a lot of options to throw to. Brown is still going to be boom or bust every week. In fact, he might have even fewer boom games now with fewer targets coming his way. Inevitably, he will have a 20+ point week every now and then, but I definitely don't want to rely on him as a flex option - maybe a bench stash just in case he makes a massive improvement in his game. Let's not forget the injury bug is already starting to strike with a hamstring injury in camp. That type of injury is even worse for speedsters like Brown. It's something to monitor going into the season, but he won't be on any of my teams while he is going ahead of Antonio Brown, Laviska Shenault, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks, and Will Fuller V.
Dallas Goedert - I have not gotten the love interest in this guy at all. He is being drafted as the 7th tight end off the board in that dead zone right after Hockenson, Pitts and Andrews. Zach Ertz is still on the roster, and even though we still think he is going to be cut or traded, it hasn't happened yet and honestly, it might not. The last time we saw Siriani call plays, tight ends got by with just 27 catches for 273 yards and one touchdown the entire season. I'm not saying that those are on him or that he is the same play caller he was in 2011, but that is the only history we have from him as a play caller. In the last 3 seasons as the Colts OC, the team's offensive scheme used multiple tight ends in Doyle, Burton, and Mo Allie Cox. I see the Eagles running out a ton of two and three tight end sets with the addition of Richard Rodgers and no real star wideouts on the roster. In that part of the draft, I'm still looking at wide receivers and RBs, or maybe even my QB. I'd much rather take Higbee, Tonyan, or Irv Smith who are going a couple rounds later.
Zachary Dennison CommentedAug 31, 2021 6:21 pm
If anyone has any thoughts hit me up in the comments or DM me on my twitter.