Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin

WR - TB
Height: 6-1
Weight: 209 lbs
Age: 28
College: Penn State
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 Season Outlooks

Godwin is expected to take off as a target hog in 2023 with Mike Evans' efficiency dropping off a cliff in 2022 and the lack of target competition outside of him. The case for Godwin rests on his individual target share volume, the fact that the Buccaneers will be throwing often while playing from behind, and the fact that he could have another gear to his game now one year removed from the ACL injury. Godwin finished as a WR2 or better in just four weeks during the 2022 season. If he wants to develop into a more consistent Fantasy asset, Godwin's 99th-highest average depth of target (5.6) has to rise. Godwin projects more as a WR3 in 2023.

Godwin is good, but high passing volume throughout his six seasons with the Bucs has certainly helped his numbers.

We’re betting that volume drops this year – quite possibly by a lot.

Godwin will need to counter that by rebounding his target share (31st or lower among WRs each of the past three years). And he’ll need to keep up his per-target efficiency to truly help your fantasy team.

An ADP on the WR2-3 border makes Godwin fine to take shots on. But the new issues with his offense keep him from being a terrific value.

What We Learned Last YearGodwin can help your fantasy team even at less than full strength.Coming off a Dec. 19 ACL tear, Godwin made it back for Week 1. A hamstring injury knocked him out of that contest, though, and cost him the next two weeks.Godwin didn’t miss another game after that return. He finished the year with career lows in yards per catch (9.8), yards per target (7.2), and yards per route (1.73).His average depth of target also came in way shorter than usual. The 5.7-yard ADOT marked a 25% fall from Godwin’s 7.6 in 2021 (according to Pro Football Focus’ numbers). That 2021 number marked a 26% dip from his previous low.Godwin’s yards after catch per reception also declined 0.9 vs. 2021. His 5.1 in that category fell in line with his career 5.4 average. But catching shorter passes vs. earlier in his career should mean more running after the catch. So consider that another limitation of the knee repair.Godwin ranked eighth among WRs in targets per game but just 34th in target share (adjusted for games missed).
What to Expect in 2023That last stat is the biggest reason to worry about Godwin this season. He’s good enough to deliver fantasy points even with iffy QB play. But the volume could be a lot different than what we’re used to.The Buccaneers led the league in pass attempts each of the past two seasons. They ranked sixth in 2020, fourth in 2019 and 2018, and third in 2017 (Godwin’s rookie year).This has been a high-volume, pass-happy offense ever since Godwin arrived. Will that remain so in 2023?New OC Dave Canales is expected to have an “added emphasis on establishing the run.” Canales said in the spring, “The marriage of the run and pass, that is our identity.” He was specifically referring to not giving away what’s coming with the formation. But Tampa will obviously need to run at a rate much higher than league-low if it wants to keep the defense guessing about what’s coming.Godwin also finished 31st among WRs in target share in 2021 and 44th in 2020. He ranked 18th back in his 2019 breakout campaign, even with Mike Evans at 13th.Godwin has topped 71% in catch rate four straight years, starting with Jameis Winston’s final Bucs season. He also posted better TD rates in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than the past two years.Godwin will need to see his target share rebound and/or keep up the efficiency (and perhaps add TDs) to approach his points per game of the past four years.

Godwin is fresh off an impressive 2022 campaign in which he set career-high marks in targets and receptions despite spending most of last offseason rehabbing a torn ACL. Godwin's short-range role (5.9 aDOT) limited his yardage and he wasn't much of a factor near the goal line (four end zone targets), but he still managed his fourth consecutive top-15 finish in fantasy PPG. The 27-year-old has some durability concerns (he has missed at least two games in four consecutive seasons), but the larger issue here is the departure of Tom Brady. Tampa Bay has operated an extremely pass-heavy offense during the Brady era, but that will change with Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask under center. Godwin will see enough volume to produce borderline WR2 production.

2023 Fantasy Football Rankings

Standard

#74

PPR

#45

Half-PPR

#55

Superflex

#78

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Projections

Rush Yds Rush TD Rec Rec Yds Rec TD
85.3 951.5 4.0

2023 Average Draft Position (ADP)

Standard

#77

Pick 7.05

PPR

#61

Pick 6.01

Half-PPR

#64

Pick 6.04

Superflex

#69

Pick 6.09

Injury Risk

Injury Risk:
High

Depth Chart

Strength of Schedule

Easy Season Ahead
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Fantasy Playoffs
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