There's an obvious downgrade for Hill going from Kansas City to Miami because of the quarterback change from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. But just how far should Hill fall on Draft Day? We still like Hill as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, and he's worth drafting in Round 2. It's hard to expect Hill to average more than 17.0 PPR points per game, which he's done in three of the past four seasons, including two in a row. But he only has one season in his career under 15.0 PPR points per game, which was his rookie season in 2016. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins will feature Hill, and he will hopefully be above 135 targets, which he's done in three of the past four seasons. Hill will likely love the creativity of Mike McDaniel's offense, and Hill should be able to coexist nicely with Jaylen Waddle. As long as Tagovailoa isn't a disaster throwing the ball, Hill should be fine as a Fantasy receiver with the Dolphins in 2022.
Hill’s ranked as a top-9 PPR WR in 4 of the past 5 seasons.
But 2022 turns up a major QB downgrade, going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa in a make-or-break campaign.
Hill will also play in a Miami offense that’s not expected to throw as much as the Chiefs have in recent years (61% in 2021 and 2020).
Still, we’re talking about an all-time talent here. Only 28, we’ve seen no indication that he’ll decline physically. And with Miami’s offense expected to emphasize catch-and-run opportunities, Hill should remain a PPR and YAC monster.
He remains on track for another WR1 season.
Hill was traded to Miami after finishing four of his six seasons in Kansas City as a top-eight fantasy wide receiver. He is coming off a bit of an odd season, as defensive adjustments led to more short-area work (10.6 aDOT was his lowest since 2016) and a dip in scoring (nine TDs), but also a career-high 160 targets and 111 receptions. His fantasy production was boom/bust, as he produced five top-10 fantasy weeks, but also eight finishes of 40th or worse. Hill is now 28 years old and his value takes a hit with Tua Tagovailoa under center rather than Patrick Mahomes. Still, he's one of the league's most explosive and heavily utilized players. He's a mid-range WR1.
After back to back seasons as one of the top NFL - and fantasy - receivers in the league, Tyreek Hill might see a significant backslide. Not because of his ability, which remains high, but because nobody knows if Tua Tagovailoa will be able to take advantage of all that ability. Hill is talented enough to overcome any hiccups to some extent, but there's only so much anyone can do if Tagovailoa faceplants this season. On talent alone, Hill is a solid No.2 receiver in fantasy. Of course he has upside for much more, but fantasy owners can't assume he will reach it because of the quarterback.