No Patrick Mahomes, no problem for Hill, who had a monster year in 2022 in his first season in Miami. Hill set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119) and yards (1,408), and he also had seven touchdowns, along with 32 rushing yards and a touchdown. It was the third time in his career that he averaged more than 20.0 PPR points, but he showed that leaving the Chiefs and Mahomes wasn't an issue. Now, some Fantasy managers might be concerned that Hill could lose a step at 29, or that Tua Tagovailoa gets hurt again and the Dolphins struggle at quarterback. But Hill played well even when Tagovailoa was out last season, and he should produce at a high level again in this offense. Hill is a first-round pick in all Fantasy leagues, and he should be drafted as a top-five receiver.
Hill showed no signs of decline in 2022. In fact, he set a career-high with 341 PPR points.
If Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, Hill should have little trouble repeating as a high-end WR1.
What We Learned Last YearHill ranked 2nd in total WR PPR points; 4th in points per game. The former Chief finished as a top-6 fantasy WR six times. Only Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams posted more top-6 finishes.Hill set career highs in targets (170), catches (119), and receiving yards (1,710). He led the league with a massive 3.07 yards per route run. The 29-year-old also sat first with a personal-best 92.0 Pro Football Focus receiving grade.Hill tallied lines of 7-47 (vs. Jets), 12-177 (vs. Vikings), 4-55 (vs. Patriots), and 2-23 (vs. Jets) without Tua Tagovailoa.Hill played all 17 games for the second straight season. He suffered a minor ankle injury in Week 17 but was fine for the Wild Card Round loss to Buffalo.Jaylen Waddle did, too, though Hill crushed him in target share (30.2% to 20.8%).Hill was investigated on assault and battery allegations for an incident at a Miami Beach marina in late June. The two parties "resolved their differences" near the end of July, so we're not expecting any NFL discipline.What to Expect in 2023Hill’s 2022 production won’t be easy to match. Since 2000, only eight WRs have hit 20+ PPR points per game at age 29: Marvin Harrison, Jordy Nelson, Terrell Owens, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Torry Holt, and Cooper Kupp.Hill’s tape showed he’s still an elite talent, though. And Miami didn’t make any significant moves at pass catcher, providing similar target upside for 2023.The Dolphins return the same HC (Mike McDaniel), OC (Frank Smith), and WR coach (Wes Welker).Miami ranked 8th in pass rate last season (60%). With the same staff back, we expect a similar rate in 2023.Hill’s 8th pro season will largely come down to the health of Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered multiple concussions in 2022. In four games without Tua, Hill finished as the WR25, WR3, WR17, and WR74. Miami at least upgraded their backup QB spot, signing former Jet Mike White to a 2-year deal with $4.5 million guaranteed.Hill told the Totally Offensive podcast in April that he currently plans to retire after the 2025 season. He’ll be nearly 32 years old at that time.
Hill's first season with the Dolphins went about as well as it could have from a fantasy perspective. Despite moving on from Patrick Mahomes, Hill set career-high marks in target share (30%), targets, receptions, yardage and fantasy points. Hill finished second among WRs in fantasy points and was a top-25 scorer in a ridiculous 15 of 17 weeks. Hill scored eight TDs, and that number likely would've been higher with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa (he caught zero TDs in games Tagovailoa was out or left injured). Hill remains in his prime at age 29 and is on the short list of players with a legitimate shot to lead the WR position in fantasy points.