On a per-game basis, Allen was nearly as good as he's ever been last year. He averaged 75.2 yards per game, which was his best mark since 2017, and his 16.4 FPPG was his second-best mark since that year. Allen was also above his career averages in yards per target and catch rate in 2022. In other words, the numbers don't really show any signs of Allen slowing down, despite the fact that he just turned 31 years old. Still, we'd feel more comfortable waiting until Round 4 to draft Allen this year as we see how he fits in Kellen Moore's new offense and how the arrival of Quentin Johnston impacts his target share.
The first half of Allen’s 2022 was wrecked by a hamstring injury. But he was awesome over the second half, ranking third among WRs in PPR points and sixth in non-PPR.
Allen has now finished as a top-13 WR in PPR points per game in six straight seasons. And the 31-year-old has shown no signs of decline.
First-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston adds target competition in 2023. But there’s plenty of volume in the Chargers’ pass-heavy offense to support at least another WR2-level season for Allen.
Circle his name as a likely value in your fantasy drafts.
What We Learned Last YearAllen went down with a hamstring injury in the season opener. He missed the next five games, aggravated the injury in Week 7, and then missed another two games.Over the final eight games, he totaled:83 targets60 catches675 yards4 TDsOnly Justin Jefferson saw more targets than Allen over that span. No WR caught more balls.Allen garnered 26.6% of Chargers targets from Week 11 on, the 15th-biggest target share among WRs.He ranked third among WRs in PPR points over his final eight games; sixth in non-PPR.Allen underachieved in the TD department last year. He scored four times on 66 catches. That 6.1% TD rate is well below the league average of 7.5%, and below Allen’s career average of 6.6%.Allen has averaged 6+ catches and 70+ yards per game in six straight seasons.His finishes in PPR points per game:2017 - 4th2018 - 12th2019 - 8th2020 - 6th2021 - 13th2022 - 12thAllen turned 31 in April but has shown no signs of decline. In fact, he improved his Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route run from 2021 to 2022. Last year’s marks both ranked 12th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets.
What to Expect in 2023The Chargers made a change at OC, canning Joe Lombardi and replacing him with Kellen Moore.Like Lombardi, Moore is a pass-leaning play caller. Three of his four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards. The Chargers should again be near the top of the league in pass attempts this season.Allen will face additional target competition with the arrival of first-round WR Quentin Johnston. But the 6’3, 208-pounder figures to spend most of his time outside the numbers, making him a bigger threat to Mike Williams and, especially, Josh Palmer.The Chargers ranked top 7 in total WR catches, yards, and PPR points last season, so there’s plenty of production to go around.
Allen is entering his 11th NFL season after an up-and-down 2022 campaign in which he missed seven early-season games due to injury but produced elite numbers once back on the field. In fact, Allen finished eight consecutive weeks top 30 in scoring at WR and ranked third at the position in fantasy PPG (18.8) during the span. This after Allen finished the prior five seasons no lower than 13th in targets, receptions and fantasy points. Allen is now 31 years old and has missed 11 games due to injury over the last three seasons, but he's still positioned as a featured target in an elite offense. Allen has the look of a high-floor WR2 in PPR formats.