Dalton Kincaid
2025 Season Outlooks
After wearing the "bust" label in 2024, Dalton Kincaid could be primed for a bounce-back season in 2025 and should be drafted as a low-end TE1 or a high-end backup tight end. Kincaid was not even a top-20 tight end last season, but he played through two knee injuries including a partially torn PCL. He also had the second-highest target per route run rate among tight ends (minimum 50 targets) behind only Trey McBride. He averaged the 10th-most yards per route run at the position. Unfortunately, Kincaid simply was not on the field enough and did not run enough routes to take advantage of his high efficiency. Kincaid never played more than 51% of the snaps after returning from a Week 10 injury but was actually on pace for 102 targets in his first nine games pre-injury. Considering Buffalo has not upgraded its receiving corps, Kincaid has sleeper appeal and should not cost much on draft day.
Kincaid failed to clear 13.1 fantasy points in a single game last season, which is pretty hard to believe when you consider he handled a 20.3% target share (5.8 per game) in a Josh Allen-led offense that averaged 3.6 touchdowns per game (the highest ever by an Allen offense). Kincaid got seven-plus targets in six of 13 regular-season games, but never cleared 53 yards in a single outing and found the end zone only twice. He finished 15th at tight end in targets despite four missed games, but was 26th in catches and 28th in yards thanks to an ugly 59% catch rate and 6.0 YPT. Kincaid's pedigree (2023 first-rounder), heavy usage and the strong Buffalo offense provide hope for a Year 3 leap, but he's risky after such an underwhelming 2024. Consider him a fringe TE1.
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings
Standard
#109
PPR
#113
Half-PPR
#102
Superflex
#126
2025 Fantasy Football Draft Projections
| Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | 61.7 | 643.8 | 3.8 |
|---|
2025 Average Draft Position (ADP)
Standard
#121
Pick 11.01
PPR
#129
Pick 11.09
Half-PPR
#126
Pick 11.06
Superflex
#150
Pick 13.06
Strength of Schedule
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