Knox is likely to struggle with the addition of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, but he should still have value this season. While Knox is unlikely to get drafted in most Fantasy leagues, don't be surprised if you add him off the waiver wire during the year. Kincaid is expected to be a big slot receiver for the Bills, which should allow Knox to operate as the main tight end for Buffalo, and he's been productive in that role. He scored 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons while averaging at least 9.0 points per game. Knox can still be a red-zone threat for Josh Allen despite being in a crowded receiving group with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Kincaid. Knox could end up as a surprise Fantasy option as the season goes on because being associated with Allen is a good thing for his Fantasy value.
Knox signed a contract extension last September, then saw GM Brandon Beane add Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. He adds legit red zone competition and figures to take a bite out of Knox’s target share.
Outside of deep formats, you can pass on Knox in non-best ball redraft leagues. But keep him circled as a potential in-season streamer.
What We Learned Last YearAmong 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Knox ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, 10th in catch rate, fourth in TDs, and 23rd in yards per route run.The TDs helped propel him to the overall TE13 finish in PPR. Playoffs included, Knox went on a five-game scoring streak starting in Week 14.Still, Knox finished as a top-6 fantasy TE only once; a top-12 TE five times. He finished worse than TE18 in eight different weeks.Knox missed one game with a foot/hamstring injury (Week 5).On the year, his 65 targets (4.3 per game) tied Isaiah McKenzie for third on the team.Drops remained an issue for the 5th-year pro. He's now posted at least a 9.3% drop rate in all four NFL seasons.
What to Expect in 2023Buffalo took the air out of Knox’s fantasy value with the drafting of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid.The Utah product brings pro polish following five college seasons. His tape, production, and draft capital suggest a sizable year-one role.Recall that Buffalo signed Knox to a contract extension just last September. If there’s a hopeful slant, more two-TE sets are possible this fall.Buffalo returns OC Ken Dorsey, who helped this unit rank 13th league-wide in pass rate; 8th in attempts per game. QB Josh Allen remained at the top of his game. Compared to 2021, Allen improved his yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate, TD rate, INT rate, and PFF passing grade.Buffalo lost ~150 targets to free agency, mainly from RB Devin Singletary and WR Isaiah McKenzie. RB James Cook should absorb a chunk of those. Buffalo also added slot/gadget WR Deonte Harty.
Knox has yet to finish a season better than 16th in targets, 17th in receptions or 14th in yards among tight ends, but he has managed top-13 showings in fantasy PPG each of the past two seasons thanks to a barrage of TDs. Working in Buffalo's high-scoring offense, Knox sits third at the position in TDs (15) and second in end zone targets (16) over the past two seasons. The 26-year-old averaged a hair under five targets per game during that span, but that usage may dip a bit after the Bills spent their 2023 first-round pick on Dalton Kincaid. Knox will catch the occassional TD, but he won't have the volume to support TE1 production. He's barely worth late-round consideration.