Kyler Murray

Despite three straight seasons averaging between 20 and 21 Fantasy points per game in six-point-per-TD leagues, Fantasy managers will line up to take Murray as a top-12 option. The allure is easy: He delivers solid rushing production every single season to supplement what he does as a thrower. It's what he does as a thrower that's been frustrating. Murray's TD rate has been below 4% in each of his past three seasons, and even though his yard-per-attempt average has grown over each of those seasons he's seen his pass attempt average decline year over year. His deep passing efficiency has been woeful for years, and he hasn't gotten a lot of yards after the catch from his receivers. Above all, Murray has never thrown for 4,000 yards (he came sort of close last year), has never thrown for 30-plus touchdowns (and has totaled 30-plus touchdowns only in 2020 when he ran for 11). That stuff matters. Without confidence in the Cardinals offense taking a big step forward this season, even with a yoked-up Marvin Harrison Jr., Murray is among the back-half-of-draft QBs who tease you with upside. Expect him to get grabbed after 100th overall in one-QB leagues (much, much sooner in Superflex/two-QB) as roughly the 11th or 12th quarterback off the board.