Fantasy Football

Aaron Jones

RB - GB

Height: 5-9

Weight: 208 lbs

Age: 29

College: UTEP

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2023 Season Outlooks

Jones remains the Packers' lead running back, but he's not a lock to remain hyper-efficient in an offense tailored to new starting QB Jordan Love. The expectation is a higher dose of run-pass option plays, with which Jones hasn't been quite as efficient compared to traditional carries. Jones' numbers in a small sample size with Love over the past two seasons also weren't as good as they were with Aaron Rodgers, complete with a near one-yard drop-off in rushing average and zero explosive plays. Ugliest of all, Love has never reliably thrown to his RBs at Utah State or in Green Bay, with Jones failing to register a single catch from Love over 31 pass plays together. Point is, you'd be wise to bake in a downturn in production from Jones, who has tallied over 1,400 total yards in three of his past four seasons with at least seven scores in each. He's still a No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a top-40 pick, but expect a top-20, not a top-10, finish.

Jones has been a consistent fantasy contributor for several years now. We don’t expect that to change all that much, even with the Packers handing the reigns over to QB Jordan Love this season.Early ADP has found Jones in the top half off RB2 range, making him a solid shot to take as either a late RB1 or RB2.
What We Learned Last YearJones has spent the last four seasons as the Packers’ primary RB. He concluded 2022 as the RB9 in PPR.He posted six top-12 weekly finishes, with two more inside the top24. In total, Jones finished 15 of his 17 games as an RB3.The former fifth-round pick led the Packers in carries (213) and rushing yards (1,121), adding 7 total TDs. Jones also finished second on the team in targets (73) and receptions (59), with 395 receiving yards.Among all NFL RBs since 2019, Jones ranks fifth in PPR points, sixth in rushing yards (4,108), fifth in receptions (207) and receiving yards (1,615), and third in total TDs (47). Jones hasn’t finished outside the top 12 in PPR since 2018.Seeing at least 63 targets in every season during that span has been key.Among 41 RBs who received 100+ carries in 2022, Jones ranked second in PFF rushing grade, ninth in elusive rating, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.20).However, Jones was not as effective as a receiver in 2022. Of the 17 RBs who saw 50+ targets last year, Jones finished 13th in PFF receiving grade, 10th in yards per route run (1.25), and 14th in drop rate (9.2%). All three marks declined vs. 2021.What to Expect in 2023Jones restructured his contract with the team early this offseason, a move that’ll improve his chances of staying with the team through the end of his deal in 2025.It’s reasonable to expect the team will help new QB Jordan Love by running the ball plenty.Last year, the Packers were fairly neutral in run-pass rate, though they did finish 18th in Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2022.Adding rookies TE Luke Musgrave, TE Tucker Kraft, and WR Jayden Reed will give Love more mouths to feed, but we’re not expecting them to damage Jones’ target share.

Jones enters 2023 looking for his fifth consecutive top-10 fantasy campaign. The 2017 fifth-round pick has been as reliable as they come, finishing inside the top 15 at RB in targets, receptions and scrimmage yards each of the past four seasons. His rushing efficiency has been nothing short of elite -- he sits second in yards per carry (5.1) among 40 RBs with 550-plus carries since he was drafted in 2017. Jones has 11 receiving TDs over the past two seasons, though his goal line work has been trending down (two carries inside the 5-yard line last season) and helps explain why he produced only three top-10 fantasy weeks in 2022. The 28-year-old will continue to share the backfield with AJ Dillon and the offense figures to lose some steam with Aaron Rodgers gone, so Jones is best viewed as a good RB2.