Cooper Kupp is a bounce-back candidate after posting a three-year low in Fantasy points per game in 2020 (13.5 in PPR, 7.3 in non-PPR). Getting Matthew Stafford at quarterback is an upgrade for the Rams, but his downfield nature may work against Kupp, who was Jared Goff's security blanket in the slot for four years. Kupp has averaged north of eight targets per game over the past two seasons -- any fluctuation with that would impact him greatly as 45.5% of his 2020 PPR production came from receptions, fourth-most of any receiver who scored at least 80 PPR points. Kupp will remain a regular in the Rams offense, and his matchups look good beginning in Week 4, but there is some concern about him rejoining the ranks of elite Fantasy receivers. The safer plan is to view him as a low-end No. 2 choice. Aggressive drafters may opt to take him by Round 4, but the safer spot is Round 5 in PPR formats and maybe even early Round 6 in non-PPR formats.
Kupp got a bit unlucky to score just 3 times last year, despite ranking 9th among WRs in catches. He still finished WR18 in PPR points and WR27 in non-PPR. And that followed WR4 finishes in 2019 on 10 TDs -- so it’s not like the guy hasn’t proved capable of finding the end zone.
Kupp returns to the same offense in 2021, projects for similar volume and gets a likely QB upgrade in Matt Stafford. He’s a rock-solid WR2 with upside into WR1 territory.
Kupp played 80% of the Rams' snaps, ran 82% of the routes and handled 8.3 targets per game in both 2019 and 2020. Despite the remarkable consistency, Kupp fell from fantasy WR4 in 2019 to WR26 in 2020. The primary culprit? Predictable TD regression to the mean. Kupp scored 10 TDs (5.4 OTD) in 2019 but managed only three (3.6 OTD) in 2020. Kupp's efficiency was otherwise pretty similar to years past, and he has now finished no lower than 13th at WR in receptions, RAC and catch rate each of the past two seasons. Kupp, who actually out-targeted Robert Woods 134 to 128 in 16 games together last season, is one of the game's top slot WRs and gets a boost from the team's QB upgrade to Matthew Stafford. Consider the 28-year-old a good WR3 in PPR.
Cooper Kupp has nearly matched running mate Robert Woods in targets over the past two seasons and was on pace for another hearty total in 2018 before a midseason injury derailed his opportunity. Unlike Woods, Kupp has been a strong touchdown rate receiver in his career outside of 2020 at a paltry 3.3%. Kupp is one of the strongest touchdown rate positive regression candidates in the NFL for 2021, in a subset where they historically double or triple their rate from the previous season. Kupp has been the ideal fit for the Rams offense, working the middle of the field and digesting holes in the secondary for after-the-catch exploitation. With Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett's departures this offseason, Woods and Kupp will be an emphasis of the Rams passing game even more than recent seasons.