Ezekiel Elliott

Tony Pollard took some work away from Elliott in 2021 and was the more efficient runner. But he remained well behind the veteran in role, and it sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are interested in altering that setup. It’s possible, even, that leaving the knee injury behind shifts some of that work back to Elliott. We’re not betting on a rebound in efficiency for the aging back, but volume is king for fantasy RBs. An injured Elliott ranked 7th in the league in carries last year, 11th in opportunities per game (carries + targets) and 7th in total PPR points. An ADP that puts him toward the bottom of RB2 territory makes Elliott a fine draft value – and perhaps even a strong one if a healthy right knee does give him an efficiency boost.

Elliott returns as the lead back in Dallas after a solid but unspectacular showing in 2021. Elliott finished seventh among RBs in fantasy points, but the result reeks of survivor bias. Elliott had one weekly finish better than eighth (Week 3) and finished outside the top-20 backs in six of the final 11 weeks. Elliott averaged a career-low 13.9 carries per game, but still finished top 10 among backs in carries, rushing yards, rushing TDs, carries inside the 5, routes, targets and receptions. Elliott has finished all six NFL seasons as a top-12 fantasy back, but he's been outside the top 15 in PPG each of the last two seasons. Now 27 years old and extremely overworked (1,938 career touches), Elliott should be viewed as a mid-to-back-end RB2.

Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me. Ezekiel Elliott fooled many last year, coming off a career-worst season. But hopes for a bounce-back proved ill-conceived as his productivity took another downtick. Elliott averaged just 13.9 rushes per game, continuing a five-season decline from leading the league at 24.2 carries per game in 2017. Although his yards per rush (4.2) improved from 2021 (4.0), it's still indicative of a league-average producer and far below his career-best mark (5.1). Elliott's declining productivity extended to the passing game, too. He set career lows in yards per catch (6.1), receiving yards per game (16.9), and catch rate (72.3%). Fortunately, the Cowboys still gave him the lion's share of goal-line opportunities, leading to his third double-digit touchdown (12) season. But context is key, and we now know he played last season with a partially torn PCL. That keeps the door open on a bounce back season in 2022. Regardless of whether he's lost a step, team owner Jerry Jones continues to push for Elliott as the centerpiece of the offense. Coaches rarely go against the team owner's explicit desires.