Goff is considered a modest breakout candidate by some, but there are some issues. For one thing, he's averaged more than 20 Fantasy points just three times over his seven-year career, and never more than 22.6 points per game. And while the Lions have added some pretty serious talent in the draft over the past two seasons, they've leaned away from being pass-heavy, especially inside the 10-yard line where they've passed on just 42.5% of their plays last year, seventh-fewest in the league. Goff doesn't run much and also doesn't take a lot of chances with the football. Take some caution with Goff, who should be picked after the likes of Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford. If he's the 20th quarterback off the board in your league, he's a fair value.
Expectations for Goff were low entering 2022. He not only exceeded them but put together an impressive season.
Detroit added no challenge to his 2023 role and will (eventually) get 2022 first-round WR Jameson Williams back into the lineup. The Lions also added strong receiving RB Jahmyr Gibbs in Round 1 this year.
It’s easier to see some upside after Goff showed it last season. But he’s also going much earlier in this year’s drafts. He’s ultimately OK but doesn’t need to be part of your 2023 fantasy plans.
What We Learned Last YearGoff spearheaded a resurgent Lions’ offense that nearly reached the playoffs and provided good fantasy production. The former No. 1 overall pick finished as the QB10.He logged six top-12 weekly finishes, with eight more among the top 24. He ended just five of 17 weeks outside the top 20.The Lions’ offense was stellar as a whole, ranking eighth in passing yards per game, 13th in pass rate, third in TD:FG ratio, and first in drive success rate.Goff finished sixth among QBs in passing attempts (587) and passer rating (99.3), and fifth in passing TDs (29). He might have had more if the Lions didn’t score so efficiently on the ground.RB Jamaal Williams led the NFL in red-zone rushing attempts (57) and TDs (16).Among 24 QBs who recorded 400+ dropbacks last season, Goff ranked 15th in PFF passing grade, tied for fifth in adjusted completion percentage (77.8%), and tied for fourth in yards per attempt (7.6).
What to Expect in 2023Jamaal Williams has moved on to New Orleans. But Detroit signed RB David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract and drafted Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall.The Lions didn’t stop at RB when adding to their offense this offseason, though. Second-round pick TE Sam LaPorta gives Goff another weapon on top of WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. The latter will open the year serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy but figures to make an impact upon return.
Goff returns as the starter in Detroit after a strong 2022 campaign in which he finished fifth in QBR while ranking no lower than sixth among QBs in passing attempts, yards and TDs. Goff's 10th-place fantasy finish was the second-best showing of his career, but he's never finished better than 10th on a per-game basis due, in part, to minimal rushing contributions. Goff hasn't rushed for a TD since 2020 and has never cleared 108 rushing yards in a single season. He will benefit from an elite offensive line and top WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, but even if he plays well, his lack of rushing will limit him to fringe QB1 fantasy output at best.