Waller is a polarizing player in our rankings, but we all agree he is a top-10 tight end who should not be drafted before Round 7. The move to New York gives him an enormous target share opportunity, but it also comes with risks. Daniel Jones has never thrown for more than 3,205 yards or 24 touchdowns in a season, and the Giants ranked 25th in pass attempts last year. Waller's age and recent injury history should give you some pause as well. Still, Waller is one of the few tight ends who has proven he can be a difference maker at the worst position in Fantasy, averaging more than 70 yards per game in both 2019 and 2020. The ceiling is sky high if he can stay healthy and be who he was then.
Waller last performed as a high-end TE1 in 2020. In the two years since, injuries have ruined any shot at a repeat.
We like the move to New York, where he’ll play under offensive-minded HC Brian Daboll. His unit lacks a No. 1 WR, leaving room for Waller to lead in targets.
You can’t count on him to play all 17 games, but Waller should see the volume to supply a top-3 fantasy ceiling. He’s attractively priced at TE7.
What We Learned Last YearInjuries limited Waller in his final season with Las Vegas.After missing six games with knee and ankle injuries in 2021, Waller missed nine with a hamstring in 2022.He sat out part of training camp over contract negotiations and hamstring trouble.When active, his fantasy numbers proved inconsistent.He finished as a top-12 PPR TE five times, adding four finishes at TE29 or worse.Per Pro Football Focus, Waller didn't force any missed tackles on 28 receptions. He tallied only 2.8 yards after catch per reception, a career low.His 1.58 yards per route run also marked his worst number since becoming a full-time starter. It’s fair to say that he wasn’t playing in peak condition.What to Expect in 2023A healthy Waller should bounce back for fantasy managers.He turns 31 in season, not yet a worrisome age for TEs.When on the field over the past two seasons, Waller has averaged 4.1 catches, 53 yards, and 0.25 TDs per game. A fine level of production given the injury troubles.Waller’s back to full health and garnering offseason hype as the Giants’ target leader.Clearly, his target competition isn’t fierce.WRs Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson are coming off ACL tears.WR Darius Slayton rebounded in 2022, but he doesn’t project as a high-volume option.WR Parris Campbell is coming off a career-best season, but his durability issues are well-documented. He’s on a low-dollar one-year deal.WR Jamison Crowder knows HC Brian Daboll from their time in Buffalo. Now 30, he doesn’t profile as anything more than a part-time slot – if he makes the team.WR Jalin Hyatt brings exciting downfield speed, but his game lacks polish. Slipping to Round 3, he’s unlikely to make a major Year 1 impact.WR Isaiah Hodgins looks like the top WR following a strong end to 2022. But he’s far from a true No. 1.We look for the Giants’ pass volume to tick up a bit.Daniel Jones averaged only ~29.5 attempts per game last year. After signing a new extension – and now in Year 2 with Daboll – that number should rise.
Waller was traded to the Giants after emerging as one of the league's top receiving tight ends during five seasons with the Raiders. Waller's 2019 breakout led to back-to-back top-three fantasy campaigns, but injuries derailed his output the past two seasons. He missed 14 games during the span, but was still fairly effective when on the field, ranking top 10 in fantasy PPG both seasons. Even with the injuries, Waller has seen eight-plus end zone targets in three straight seasons. The 31-year-old is joining a New York offense that has an NFL-low 44 pass TDs over the past three seasons (17 in 2022), but he very well could lead the team in targets considering the question marks at wide receiver. Waller is primed for a rebound and is a top-five fantasy tight end.
Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD |
---|---|---|---|---|
68.2 | 814.4 | 5.0 |
Pick 5.09
Pick 5.12
Pick 6.03
Pick 6.11
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