Do back-to-back NFL MVPs get taken outside of the top 12 at their position very often? The answer is no, but that's the scope of what Aaron Rodgers' Fantasy value is following an offseason that saw him lose his favorite target in Davante Adams. Without him, the Packers are left with a number of young receivers (Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Amari Rodgers) and some old vets too (Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb). Rodgers has not seen any notable decline in his ability, and the Packers have continued to revamp and replenish his offensive line, but it'll take a small leap to count on him for big numbers when his passing game lacks experience and proven explosiveness. Other quarterbacks offer way more in terms of rushing ability and receiver talent. While this means you should expect Rodgers to fall on Draft Day, you should also consider him a terrific value as a start-worthy quarterback you can find after the likes of Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott are gone. We'd take him after Round 8 in one-QB leagues but definitely settle for him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in two-QB and Superflex formats.
Rodgers, 39 in December, is probably just a few years away from retirement. He’s signed for 3 more seasons.
You might see some physical decline risk here — and it’s understandable. Since the merger, only 6 QBs have hit 4,000 passing yards at Rodgers’ age or older.
But we see the loss of Davante Adams as the much bigger risk. With 2 strong backfield options and a very capable defense, Green Bay doesn’t need to put too much on Rodgers’ plate. The future Hall of Famer is someone we’re passing on at a June cost of ~QB12.
Rodgers is back in Green Bay after an up-and-down offseason, during which he signed a long-term contract extension but also lost long-time go-to target Davante Adams. Rodgers' production actually took a step back last season compared to 2020 (TDs down from 48 to 37 and fantasy PPG down from 24.0 to 20.8), but he still managed a top-five fantasy campaign thanks to the big TD total and elite efficiency (top six in YPA and completion percentage for the second straight season). Adams' departure is undoubtedly a concern for Rodgers' fantasy upside, but considering he's finished no worse than ninth in fantasy PPG 13 of the last 14 seasons, it's fair to expect his elite talent to lead to yet another QB1 campaign.
What can we say about the Aaron Rodgers that hasn't been said already? At 38 years old, the back-to-back MVP is playing some of the best football of his career. Although he regressed from his insane 9.1-percent touchdown rate in 2020, he still posted a league-high 7.0-percent in 2021 while also trimming down his interceptions to a ludicrously low 0.8-percent. Rodgers has always been a great quarterback, but he's somehow elevated his game since Matt LeFleur took over in 2019. This year will be an uphill battle as he will be forced to play with a below-average group of pass-catchers with Davante Adams now in Las Vegas. Still, it's hard to imagine that Rodgers doesn't continue to dominate the NFC. If the last few years are any indication of what to expect in 2022, pencil Rodgers in for 4,000 yards, 35 touchdowns as his floor, and a QB1 finish in 2022.