Receivers transitioning to new teams or new quarterbacks can sometimes get off to slow starts in Fantasy, but that wasn't the case for Mike Evans -- he immediately became Tom Brady's favorite red zone target with six TDs in the first five games of 2020. Ultimately, Evans became a bigger part of the entire pass game -- specifically down the stretch run. He once again finished with 1,000-plus receiving yards (he has never not eclipsed 1,000 in seven NFL seasons) despite seeing a career-low 109 targets. The volume may not tick up, but there's a good chance Brady takes a step forward in Year 2 playing in the Bruce Arians system. Evans' red zone role provides him an excellent floor and he's one of the safest Round 3 picks around.
Evans has been among the most productive WRs league-wide since his rookie season (2014). Over the past 7 seasons, he ranks 9th among WRs in catches, 3rd in yards and 3rd in TDs. He’s missed just 7 games over that stretch.Such a loaded supporting cast does put a lid on his 2021 upside. But if the Bucs remain extremely pass heavy, fantasy owners can live with a fringe WR1 ceiling. He’s currently coming off the board around WR16.
Evans' first season with Tom Brady led to third-best fantasy finish of his seven-year career (11th). Evans' production was very reliant on TDs, however, as his 13 scores were a career high and fourth most at the position. Evans' 109 targets (24th) and 18% target share (49th) were career lows. Believe it or not, Evans has finished only one season better than ninth in fantasy points. Of course, at 6-foot-5 and having finished no lower than ninth in end zone targets every season of his career, Evans will rarely be short on TDs. Consider that in 10 "full" games with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Evans led the trio with 73 targets (20% share) and his 16.1 fantasy PPG during the span extrapolated over 16 games would've ranked 10th during the regular season. The 28-year-old is a mid-range WR2.
Mike Evans' target load dropped in 2020 with the in-flux of additions in the Tampa Bay passing game. However, Evans remained his productive self, surpassing 1,000 yards for the seventh straight season to begin his career. Evans has been one of the preeminent touchdown scorers in the NFL with 29 touchdowns over the past three seasons. While one of the top touchdown rate wide receivers, Evans' 18.6% rate in 2020 was well above his career rate and in line for a sharp historical regression.