Fantasy managers shouldn't be excited to draft Derek Carr outside of formats that can start two quarterbacks. He's fresh off his best Fantasy totals in four seasons and was even rated by Pro Football Focus as one of its most accurate deep-ball passers (20-plus yards) with a third-best 53.3% adjusted completion rate and 10 touchdowns. But he simply doesn't throw the ball enough to compete with others at the position. Changes to his offensive line and a tough schedule littered with challenging pass rushers won't make things easier. In typical Fantasy formats, Carr should go undrafted; in leagues that start two quarterbacks, Carr is a safe bet as a top-90 pick.
Carr has been a good-not-great fantasy option in 3 seasons under HC Jon Gruden, finishing 18th, 16th and 13th among QBs in fantasy points.
This figures to remain a run-leaning offense in 2021, while questions abound at WR and along the offensive line.
We’re not expecting a big leap from Carr this season. He’s a low-upside QB2.
Carr returns for his eighth season as the Raiders' starter. He has yet to finish an NFL season lower than 14th in pass attempts, but he's yet to post a top-10 fantasy campaign. He finished 13th last season despite pushing the ball down field more often (career-high 8.2 average depth of throw), which led to a career-best 7.94 YPA. Carr simply didn't handle enough volume (outside the top-10 in attempts, yards and pass TDs), doesn't add much with his legs (his 39-140-3 rushing line in 2020 was easily a career best) and has an underwhelming supporting cast. The 30-year-old has settled in as a mid-to-back-end QB2 with limited upside.
Derek Carr has three straight seasons with at least 4,000 passing yards and a 67% completion percentage. After seven seasons as a starter, he now holds the Raiders all-time records for completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He has been a solid starter but has yet to elevate his play or the franchise to an elite level. In a division dominated by Patrick Mahomes and an emerging star in Justin Herbert, the Raiders will be in the market for a replacement if he cannot take the next step in his career. From a fantasy perspective, Carr has finished between QB13 and QB20 in each of his seven seasons. He has been the personification of a high-floor, low-ceiling QB2 throughout his career. As more athletic young quarterbacks enter the league each year, it will only become harder for Carr to produce QB1 fantasy numbers. In seven seasons, he has a grand total of 635 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. In single quarterback leagues, it probably makes sense to target a younger passer with more upside as your backup even if they come with a lower floor than Carr.