While his age is going to become a concern at some point, Kelce is the undisputed TE1 in Fantasy Football, worthy of a pick in Round 1 of all redraft leagues. The only players we all agree should be drafted ahead of him are Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Last year he outscored the No. 2 tight end by 102 Fantasy points. Mark Andrews is the only tight end who has outscored him for a full season since Rob Gronkowski in 2015. If there is no decline because of age, there is a real chance Kelce is the most valuable player in Fantasy due to his excellence and positional scarcity, like he was last year.
Kelce set career highs in targets, catches, and TDs last season, en route to his seventh straight top-2 fantasy finish among TEs. It was Kelce's sixth time on top
It seems foolish to bet against him before he actually gives us a reason to.
What We Learned Last YearWhat else is new? Kelce led all TEs in fantasy points last year.He’s now finished as a top-2 fantasy TE in seven straight seasons, including six No. 1 finishes.Kelce was even more dominant than usual last year, scoring 103 more PPR points and 64 more non-PPR points than any other TE.Only four WRs scored more PPR points than Kelce in 2022.He finished as a top-5 TE in PPR points in 11 of 17 games. He never finished worse than TE15.Kelce set career highs with:152 targets110 catches12 TDsHis 1,338 yards were his second most.Kelce led all 43 qualifying TEs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and ranked second in yards per route run.
What to Expect in 2023Kelce will turn 34 in October but has shown no signs of decline. In fact, he registered his second-best Pro Football Focus receiving grade and fourth-most yards per route run of his career last season.QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid are back for 2023. The Chiefs swapped Matt Nagy for Eric Bieniemy at OC, but that shouldn’t make a tangible difference to the offense.Kansas City’s WR corps is unproven at best, problematic at worst. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman departed in free agency. The Chiefs only added veteran Richie James and rookie Rashee Rice. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson return from last year’s squad. None of those guys have reached 700 receiving yards in an NFL season.That figures to mean a ton of targets for Kelce again in 2023.
Kelce is fresh off a dominant 2022 season in which he led the tight end position in all fantasy-relevant categories and scored 100.9 more fantasy points than the next-closest player at the position. Kelce set new career-best marks in targets, receptions and TDs and has now finished no lower than second among TEs in catches, yards and fantasy points each of the past seven seasons. Incredibly, Kelce was a top-10 fantasy scorer in 76% of his games, whereas only two other tight ends were over 50%. Kansas City didn't make any major offseason adds at wideout, so Kelce remains locked in as Patrick Mahomes' top target. Kelce is the clear-cut No. 1 TE in fantasy and the 33-year-old should be selected in the middle of the first round in drafts.