The Saints clearly targeted Miller and it was easy to see why if you watched the Cinderella story that was the TCU Horned Frogs in 2022. Miller was the lifeblood of that offense and his absence was felt when he had to miss time. Miller has a complete three-down profile and could evolve into one of the better receiving options at the RB position. He also forces missed tackles and creates yards after contact at rates that are wise to bet on. Miller makes for a high-upside dart throw in the Round 14 range, and he could have value out the gate as a result of Alvin Kamara's three-game suspension. Miller is a nice target in the second round of your rookie-only drafts.
Miller looks like an upside runner and might have untapped receiving potential.
But he has a couple of hurdles between him and regular touches this year. We’ll have to see whether NFL discipline takes Alvin Kamara out of the way for any stretch. Miller might get a shot to prove that he deserves more touches than Jamaal Williams.
Keep the rookie in mind as a potential upside bench stash for managed leagues. He’s already close to Williams in ADP in best ball drafts and thus doesn’t look like a special value there.
What We Learned Last YearMiller went from impressive rushing efficiency in limited opportunities over his first two seasons to TCU workhorse in 2022. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry on just 137 rushes through two years, adding 13 catches oer that span.Last year found Miller averaging 6.2 yards across 224 attempts, 103 more than the nearest RB. Miller also beat that teammate by 0.5 per rush and 2.3 yards per reception, while leading the No. 2 RB by just 3 receptions.Miller’s final college season ended with a knee injury in the playoff win over Michigan. That kept him out of predraft testing that would have provided us testing numbers to compare with other RBs.
What to Expect in 2023The Saints selected Miller with the eighth pick of Round 3, as the third RB off the board. They clearly weren’t bothered by the lack of predraft testing.HC Dennis Allen also doesn’t appear concerned about Miller’s limited receiving work in college – and loves the rushing skills: "I like the player, I like his downhill running style, think he's got really good feet, I think he's got really good contact balance. And he's got the speed to take it the distance if he breaks free in the open field, so there's a lot of qualities about him that I like. And look, I don't know that they used him as much out of the backfield at TCU, but I think he's got that skill set."Miller’s pretty confident in that area as well: "How they use (Alvin Kamara) is kind of unique, and watching film every day, we watch a bunch of clips of him. How they use him in the pass game, that's pretty cool. I feel like I can step in and pretty much do the same thing."The Saints signed RB Jamaal Williams to a three-year contract in free agency before drafting Miller. He caught a decent number of passes early in his career but fell way off in that area last season (0.7 receptions per game). Williams has never been overly efficient as a receiver.Kamara enters this season off two straight years of decreased efficiency. He also brings the risk of suspension, stemming from his pending assault case. We likely won’t know until at least August whether the NFL will actually take action against him. That would dramatically alter the available touches in the New Orleans offense.The Saints might be in for a dip in rushing volume. They leaned harder on the run over the past four years after ranking among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses through nearly all of Drew Brees’ run. QB Derek Carr isn’t Brees but marks an upgrade over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston.
Miller was selected in the third round of April's draft. He's a big and strong 5-foot-11, 215-pound running back from TCU who lacks speed but was an effective back in college. Miller averaged a healthy 6.7 yards per carry on 361 career attempts, posting solid-to-strong marks in YAC, tackle breaking and eluded tackles. He wasn't much of an option in the passing game, however, totaling a 29-229-1 receiving line on 40 targets. With Alvin Kamara set to serve a three-game suspension to open the season, Miller figures to form a committee with Jamaal Williams during Weeks 1-3. That's enough to warrant late-round consideration, though Miller won't be a fantasy option once Kamara is on the field.