After a slow start to his rookie season, Allgeier came on incredibly strong in the second half. Allgeier averaged just under 100 rushing yards per game (96) after Week 13 and scored inside the top 10 at running back in three of his last four games. Volume was certainly a factor in Allgeier's stretch run where he averaged 17.8 rushing attempts per game, and that number is going to collapse after the Falcons used a top-10 pick on RB Bijan Robinson. Despite the promising rookie season, Allgeier enters 2023 as a handcuff who could see some surprise red-zone and change-of-pace touches. He makes for a high-upside gamble for those who missed RB in the first few rounds starting in Round 10, and those who use a first-round pick on Robinson could look to handcuff Allgeier as soon as Round 9.
Allgeier looks like a high-level handcuff behind Bijan Robinson in 2023.
Whether he can be a standalone fantasy contributor will depend primarily on just how high the rushing rate remains in Atlanta.
Don’t start the season expecting Allgeier to be worth setting in your lineup in leagues of 12 teams or fewer.
What We Learned Last YearAllgeier didn’t really get going until after the bye.He did see a slight bump in work across weeks 5-9, with Cordarrelle Patterson out. But even then, Allgeier topped 41.9% carry share just once in four games.Overall, Allgeier garnered just 31.3% of Falcons carries through the 13 games before the team’s bye. He averaged 10.1 rushes per game over that span.The fifth-round rookie jumped to 56% carry share and 19.8 carries per game over the final four contests, after the bye.He remained a limited passing-game contributor all year, exceeding one target in a game only three times en route to 17 total looks. Allgeier did catch 16 of those for 139 yards and a TD (8.7 yards per reception).Among 61 RBs with at least 70 carries (playoffs included) last year, Allgeier ranked:6th in Pro Football Focus run grade6th in yards after contact per attempt6th in elusive ratingT-12th in yards per carryAllgeier also ranked ninth in the league in rush yards over expected per carry. Cordarrelle Patterson checked in 14th, among 36 RBs with 90+ carries.
What to Expect in 2023Allgeier isn’t likely to find more work in Year 2. After limiting their investment into RB over HC Arthur Smith’s first two seasons, the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson eighth overall. That certainly seems to point to workhorse usage – at least a featured role.Smith and GM Terry Fontenot preached “positionless” football after the Robinson selection, primarily in answer to how there might be room for multiple RBs.Robinson, in particular, is capable of running WR routes. And early practice videos have already showed him lining up in WR positions at times.Allgeier clearly had his opportunity ceiling lowered quite a bit by Robinson’s arrival. But he should also be the No. 2 rusher. And Atlanta’s offense ranked second most run-heavy in the league last year.Don’t be surprised if the Falcons move a bit more toward the pass in 2023, however. The team went from 32nd in neutral-situation pass rate over Marcus Mariota’s 13 starts last year to 24th over Desmond Ridder’s four starts. The 2021 offense ranked 14th in neutral pass rate.Patterson remains as competition. But he carried just 36 times vs. Allgeier’s 79 over last season’s final four games. That was 56% to 25.5% in Allgeier’s favor in carry share.
The Falcons seem to have found a gem in Allgeier on Day 3 of the 2022 draft, but the youngster's fantasy outlook was absolutely crushed when Atlanta selected Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick in April's draft. During his rookie season, Allgeier averaged 4.93 yards per carry and his 2.60 YAC was second best among qualified RBs. A lack of scoring (four TDs) and receiving (17 targets) limited the fifth-round rookie's fantasy output for most of the season, but he was promoted to a larger role down the stretch and finished with four consecutive fantasy outings in the top 16 among RBs. That tells us that the 224-pound back has some insurance appeal, but as long as Robinson is healthy, Allgeier will be limited to a handful of carries and perhaps the occasional target. Even in a run-heavy offense, he's worth no more than a late flier.