Even with a 22.5% target share last year, Kmet finished 16th among tight ends in PPR points per game (8.7). Half of his six games with 10-plus PPR last season came with Darnell Mooney sidelined, and nearly 30% of his PPR Fantasy points were scored by touchdowns. That's more than enough to call him a TD-reliant player, particularly on a Bears squad that added D.J. Moore and Robert Tonyan to their receiving group, further minimizing Kmet's opportunities including in the red zone. Challenging early-season matchups further cloud Kmet's potential. You might be best to avoid Kmet in drafts and instead pick him up off waivers in the event he's more productive than expected.
The Bears’ offense hits 2023 more crowded with pass catchers than last year’s version. And that edition was the league’s most run-heavy.
We’re betting on more passing this time around, after the Chase Claypool and D.J. Moore additions. But the shift will have to be dramatic to support multiple attractive fantasy pass-catchers.
Kmet’s OK as a low TE2 but shouldn’t excite you.
What We Learned Last YearKmet managed to finish eighth among PPR TEs last season but just 15th in points per game.A large concentration of Kmet’s points came from Week 8 through Week 10. He finished as the TE1 overall in PPR in that span, with 5 TDs and a pair of top-5 weekly finishes.Outside of that window, Kmet finished as a TE1 twice and outside of the top 24 in every other game he played.The Notre Dame product ranked first on the Bears in targets (70), second in target share (19.3%, adjusted for games missed), and third in Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.37).Among 27 TEs who saw 50+ targets in 2022, Kmet finished:18th in PFF receiving gradeT-17th in yards per route run (1.27)ninth in yards after catch (293)
What to Expect in 2023Kmet has improved in yards per target, yards per route run, and target share every season.Unfortunately, that may not make a huge difference in a run-heavy Bears’ offense that ranked 31st in pass rate in 2022. Chicago has also traded for Chase Claypool and D.J. Moore since the middle of last season, crowding the target distribution.If Kmet can make a push to be second-in-line for targets behind Moore, he has a decent chance of returning mid-TE2 production with TE1 spikes when he finds the end zone. But the underlying numbers don’t scream that a breakout is on the horizon.
Kmet is coming off an extremely odd 2022 season in which he opened the year with zero catches during Weeks 1 and 2 and didn't score double-digit fantasy points in a game until Week 9. Kmet then scored six TDs in his final nine games and his 12.4 fantasy PPG during the span ranked fourth among tight ends. The 2020 second-round pick is a full-time player (no TE has played more snaps over the past two seasons), but he was way over his head in the TD department (seven TDs, 3.0 expected) and his already-inconsistent targets could dip after Chicago added DJ Moore to the WR room. Of course, Kmet is an ascending player at age 24, so there's reason for optimism that he can provide fringe TE1 numbers.