Justin Jefferson
2025 Season Outlooks
Jefferson is a surefire first-round pick in all one-QB leagues and one of the top five wide receivers in all formats. Where you take him in Round 1 will be dependent on your confidence in first-year starter J.J. McCarthy. Before you get too concerned about McCarthy, it is worth remembering that Sam Darnold was a castaway before his success with Minnesota in 2024, when Jefferson averaged 18.7 PPR points per game, and that Jefferson averaged 119 yards per game in his final four games of 2023 with a collection of backup quarterbacks. He is as quarterback-proof as a wide receiver can get and a constant threat to be the best player in Fantasy any given week or season. You could reasonably draft him over anyone not named Bijan Robinson or Ja'Marr Chase.
Jefferson enters his sixth NFL season as one of the best in the league at his position. The 26-year-old has produced a league-high 7,432 receiving yards since his arrival in 2020, having put up at least 100 catches, 1,500 yards and eight TDs in his last three full seasons. Jefferson has finished four straight seasons as a top-5 fantasy receiver on a per-game basis and showed he was QB-proof in 2024, finishing top 5 in catches, yards and TDs with Sam Darnold under center. Darnold is gone, but 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy could conceivably be an upgrade in Kevin O'Connell's pass-first scheme. Jefferson should be one of the first players off the board on draft day.
Jefferson has been the best wide receiver in the NFL since he was drafted in 2020, with a league-leading 93.6 receiving grade. He also ranks first in receiving yards per game at 96.5 and yards per route run at 2.64.
Jefferson ranks in the 94th percentile or better in yards per route run over the last three seasons out wide, in the slot, against press, without press, against man defense, against zone defense, against single coverage, against double coverage, and if he’s open or not.
Jefferson averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game with Kirk Cousins in 2022 and 21.8 in 2023. He averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game without Cousins in 2023 and 18.7 fantasy points per game without Cousins in 2024.
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings
Standard
#6
PPR
#6
Half-PPR
#8
Superflex
#11
2025 Fantasy Football Draft Projections
| Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | 104.8 | 1479.0 | 8.6 |
|---|
2025 Average Draft Position (ADP)
Standard
#5
Pick 1.05
PPR
#5
Pick 1.05
Half-PPR
#5
Pick 1.05
Superflex
#11
Pick 1.11
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