Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert

QB - LAC
Height: 6-6
Weight: 237 lbs
Age: 25
College: Oregon
Los Angeles Chargers

2023 Season Outlooks

Fantasy managers shouldn't draft Herbert where they did in 2022, but they should absolutely expect Herbert to be better than he was last year. Part of that is because Kellen Moore took over as his offensive coordinator, and that's a big upgrade. Also, the team drafted Quentin Johnston in Round 1, strengthening the Chargers receiving corps. But the biggest reason is regression. Last year Herbert had a 3.6% touchdown rate, compared to a 5.4% rate in the first two years of his career. Last year he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, compared to 7.4 in his first two years. Those two dips alone cost him a whopping six Fantasy points per game. Draft him as a top-six QB and expect a big bounceback.

Herbert dealt with injuries to WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, plus a flukily low TD rate last year.
He still finished as a top-12 QB, which feels like his ultimate floor in 2023.
The upside? A top-3 finish like he gave fantasy owners in 2021.
Allen, Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler are back. And the Chargers added first-round WR Quentin Johnston to give Herbert the most talented group of pass catchers of his career.
OC Kellen Moore should also be an upgrade over former OC Joe Lombardi.
Herbert is an obvious bounce-back candidate and a potential value pick among the elite fantasy QBs.
What We Learned Last YearHerbert finished somewhere between QB8 and QB11 in total fantasy points last year, depending on your scoring system.He scored 5-6 fewer fantasy points per game than he did in both 2020 and 2021.The culprit: Herbert’s passing TD rate plummeted from 5.4% across his first two seasons to 3.6% in 2022. That ranked 21st among 33 qualifiers and was nearly a full percentage point below league average.Herbert’s 25 passing TDs tied for eighth league wide.He ranked second in pass attempts (699), completions (477), and passing yards (4,739).Herbert’s rushing production also sank last year. He ran 54 times for 147 scoreless yards after averaging 59 carries, 268 yards, and 4 TDs over the previous two seasons. That’s 36.1 fewer rushing fantasy points – or the difference between finishing QB8 and QB5.It’s likely that the fractured rib cartilage Herbert suffered in Week 2 played a part in the rushing dip.It’s also worth noting that WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed a combined 11 games last year.Herbert finished QB8 in fantasy points per game as a rookie in 2020 and then QB3 in 2021.He ranks sixth among QBs in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons (behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson).What to Expect in 2023The Chargers return last year’s top-5 targets: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett.They also spent the 21st overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Quentin Johnston, a 6’3, 208-pounder with impressive downfield and after-catch skills. This will likely end up being the most talented group of pass-catchers Herbert has played with.The Chargers made a change at OC, canning Joe Lombardi and replacing him with Kellen Moore.Like Lombardi, Moore is a pass-leaning play caller. Three of his four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards.The biggest change for Herbert under Moore figures to be more deep shots.Herbert ranked 32nd among 35 qualifiers last year in average depth of throw (7.0 yards) and 26th in percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield (9.7%).Dak Prescott’s average depth of throw in four seasons under Moore:9.88.38.28.7Prescott’s percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield:12.8%12.6%12.2%10.7%Herbert will get LT Rashawn Slater back after he missed the final 14 games last season with a biceps tear. Slater was excellent as a rookie in 2021, ranking 13th among 67 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.Herbert underwent surgery on Jan. 25 to repair the labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder. He had resumed throwing by May and should be a full-go for Week 1.

Herbert is entering his fourth NFL season after an odd 2022 campaign in which he finished second in pass attempts, completions and yards for the second consecutive season but saw his fantasy finish tumble from second to 11th. The culprits were a big drop in pass TDs (from 38 to 25) and rushing output (from 302 yards and three TDs to 147 yards and zero TDs). The latter (or perhaps both) may have been related to rib and labrum injuries, so a rebound in 2023 is certainly a possibility. That's especially the case with a new playcaller in Kellen Moore and with a good supporting cast led by Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Herbert, who ranked fifth with eight top-10 fantasy outings last season, remains a solid fantasy starter with upside.

2023 Fantasy Football Rankings

Standard

#64

PPR

#65

Half-PPR

#52

Superflex

#11

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Projections

Pass Yds Pass TD Pass Int Rush Yds Rush TD
4623.0 30.9 11.2 210.6 1.7

2023 Average Draft Position (ADP)

Standard

#46

Pick 4.10

PPR

#45

Pick 4.09

Half-PPR

#46

Pick 4.10

Superflex

#10

Pick 1.10

Injury Risk

Injury Risk:
High

Depth Chart

Depth Chart Not Available

Strength of Schedule

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Fantasy Playoffs
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