Blessed with the best receiving corps in football, a pass-first play-caller and an improved offensive line, Burrow is a safe top-five quarterback for Fantasy. In 28 career games with Ja'Marr Chase, Burrow has topped 22 Fantasy points 18 times. And while Burrow's efficiency technically dropped in his third season, he saw an uptick in pass attempts to more than make up for it. And this year, he'll have what's projected to be an easier schedule to help him further. The expectations are set: Burrow is viewed as a 4,500-yard passer with 32-plus touchdown potential along with some rushing production. He may not be explosive enough as a thrower or a runner to be the No. 1 overall Fantasy Football quarterback, but he's a mortal lock to be close. Expect him to be the fourth, fifth or sixth quarterback off the board in every draft.
The former Heisman winner and first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has quickly emerged as one of the league’s top QBs. That success has translated to fantasy in each of the last two seasons, and there are no signs of him slowing down any time soon.
Draft Burrow with a great deal of confidence in 2023.
What We Learned Last Year
Burrow entered last year coming off a 2021 campaign in which he finished first in PFF passing grade among qualified players and a QB9 overall fantasy finish (19.6 points per game).
He not only repeated as PFF’s highest-graded passer in 2022 but also improved his overall fantasy finish (QB4) and points per game average (21.9).
Burrow was consistently a locked-and-loaded producer in fantasy lineups. He ended the season with only five weekly finishes outside the top-12 and six top-5 efforts (including three weeks as the QB1 overall).
Once you dig into the numbers, you further appreciate how good Burrow was in 2022. Here’s how he ranked among the 24 QBs who logged 400+ dropbacks:
8th in adjusted completion percentage (77.3%)
8th in yards per attempt (7.3)
6th in passer rating (99.0)
2nd in passing yards (5,195)
2nd in passing TDs (39)
Burrow did all of this behind a Bengals offensive line that ranked 31st in PFF pass blocking grade.
Burrow also nearly doubled his previous career-highs in both rushing yards (257) and rushing TDs (5) in 2022. He’s not known for his scrambling acumen, but it’s nice to see now that he’s even further removed from the devastating multi-ligament knee injury he sustained in 2020.
What to Expect in 2023
With a top-end WR duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal, there’s little reason to expect anything other than another stellar season from Burrow in 2023.
The offseason addition of four-time Pro Bowl OT Orlando Brown Jr. should also bring a massive boost to the Bengals’ offensive line.
Brown Jr. has finished within the top 20 of PFF pass blocking grade in each of the last four seasons among OTs who’ve logged 1,000+ snaps annually.
No need to overthink this one. Burrow is a bonafide top-5 fantasy QB in 2023.
Burrow's progression continued last season, as the 2020 No. 1 pick finished fourth among QBs in fantasy points and top-10 weeks (nine) while ranking no lower than fifth in pass attempts, completions, yards and TDs. Burrow's efficiency stats predictably came back to earth, but he offset it with more volume as both a passer and rusher. After totaling a 40-118-2 rushing line in 2021, Burrow finished no lower than eighth among QBs in carries (75), rush TDs (five) and carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (seven) last season. The 26-year-old has emerged as one of the league's top quarterbacks and he'll again have the elite Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins duo at his disposal. Burrow is a top-five fantasy QB.
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