Brown has been a terrific and efficient player to this point. But target volume has been a significant issue, and moving to last year’s most run-heavy offense doesn’t seem to solve that. The Eagles will surely throw more than last season. How much more? We’ll see. Brown also must contend with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, both upgrades over what joined Brown from those positions in Tennessee. You’ve heard about the years-long off-field connection between Brown and QB Jalen Hurts. That can only help their on-field performance. But it also matters only so much if his target share doesn’t climb into WR1 territory. He’s still getting drafted in that range. And although he’s a good, young player with a team that paid in both picks and contract extension to add him, there’s a lot more downside risk than ceiling potential from his Round 3 ADP.
Brown was traded to the Eagles during April's draft. The 2019 second-round pick has emerged as one of the league's top WR talents in recent years, but he just can't seem to get over the top and join the elite fantasy scorers at the position. Part of the issue was Tennessee's run-heavy scheme, but it's also related to the six games he's missed due to injury over the last two seasons. The good news is that Brown has seen big target shares (seventh at WR each of the last two seasons), has been a TD machine (24 TDs in 43 games) and his efficiency has been elite (no lower than seventh in YPT, RAC and YPRR since he was drafted). He is safest as a fantasy WR2, but he'll be Jalen Hurts' primary target in Philadelphia and has a shot at his second top-12 fantasy campaign.
A.J. Brown, the dynamic alpha receiver who's been the centerpiece of the Titans playoff teams, was acquired in a draft weekend trade and immediately signed to a $100 million extension. The 24-year-old has 185 receptions, 2,995 yards, and 24 receiving touchdowns in three seasons despite playing in a run-heavy system and constantly commanding double teams. Brown is physically dominant, runs good routes, and attacks the ball in tight coverage. The massive investment speaks to mountainous expectations. It's clear the Eagles -- the most run-heavy team in 2021 -- are going to open up the passing offense with Brown as the alpha; which makes him a compelling option in the second or third round of redraft leagues.