Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz

TE - HOU
Height: 6-5
Weight: 260 lbs
Age: 27
College: Stanford
Houston Texans

2023 Season Outlooks

Schultz signed with the Texans this offseason, and he should remain a low-end No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues. He's worth drafting with a mid- to late-round pick in all formats. Houston has a new quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who should find Schultz to be a reliable target. Schultz might end up as the best receiving threat for the Texans given their receiving corps, which features Nico Collins, John Metchie III and Robert Woods as the likely top three options. Schultz has been a quality Fantasy tight end for the Cowboys over the past three seasons, averaging at least 9.1 PPR points per game in each year over that span. Granted, he did that with Dak Prescott for the majority of that time, and going from Prescott to Stroud is a likely downgrade. But Schultz should also be featured in Houston, which is something to covet from a tight end you can draft in his range. He's not an elite Fantasy option, but he should be a weekly starter in all formats.

There’s room for Schultz to grab a large share of Houston targets, but nothing about him suggests he’s a better bet to do so than the Texans’ top WRs.

Schultz’s fantasy production has lived off target volume and Dallas’ strong offensive efficiency. We’re not betting on Houston ranking near the top of the league in passing volume or efficiency this year.

That all makes Schultz a forgettable fantasy asset for 2023, especially with drafters still treating him as a top-12 TE.

What We Learned Last YearThe past three seasons have showed us that Schultz needs target volume to produce, more so than others at his position.Over that span – his starting time in Dallas – Schultz accumulated the fifth-most PPR points among TEs. He also ranked:Fourth in targetsFourth in receptionsSeventh in yardsFifth in TDsNinth in yards per gameEighth in PPR points per game27th in yards per catch (among TEs with 50+ receptions over that span)He benefited from playing in an offense that finished first and fourth in scoring the past two years. That helped Schultz tie for fourth among TEs in end-zone targets last year and rank top-7 among TEs in red-zone TDs each of the past two years. (Dak Prescott missed most of 2020.)Schultz’s 2022 Pro Football Focus receiving grade fell from his 2021 career high. Last year’s mark ranked just 17th among 32 TEs who drew 40+ targets.He ranked seventh among 35 in 2021 and 27th of 38 in 2020.He tied for 13th (among 32) in yards per route last season, after tying for 12th in 2021 and ranking 30th in 2020.After franchise-tagging Schultz for 2022, Dallas let him walk in free agency this offseason.
What to Expect in 2023Schultz hit the open market ahead of his age-27 season. He landed only a one-year, $6.25 million deal. That ranks him just 21st at the position in average annual salary for 2023.He joins a Houston offense coming off a terrible 2022 but with many new parts. Chief among those are the coaching staff – drawn largely from Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers staff – and rookie QB C.J. Stroud.The Texans look like a good bet to throw on less than 60% of offensive snaps. Just one of the six years that new OC Bobby Slowik spent on the 49ers staff found that offense exceeding 58.2% pass. San Francisco’s average for that span was 43.8% run vs. 56.2% pass.Dallas passed on just 52.3% of plays last year, but 59% and 61.4% the previous two seasons (with Schultz starting).Schultz should face minimal competition among Houston TEs. Teagan Quitoriano, Brevin Jordan and Mason Schreck follow him on the depth chart.No returning Texans player caught more than 37 passes for the team last season. Besides Schultz, the lead imports include:31-year-old Robert Woods, coming off his worst pro seasonRound 3 rookie WR Tank Dell (5’8.5, 165 pounds)

Schultz signed with the Texans after spending his first five NFL seasons with the Cowboys. The 2018 fourth-round pick has finished each of the past three seasons no lower than 11th among tight ends in targets, receptions, yards and fantasy points. The veteran tight end certainly benefited from Dallas' fast-paced, high-scoring offense, so it's fair to wonder if he'll take a step back in a Houston offense with a rookie QB (C.J. Stroud). On the other hand, Houston's WR room leaves something to be desired, so Schultz's target share shouldn't change much from years past. There's some risk here as he joins a new team, but Schultz is safe to value as a fringe TE1.

2023 Fantasy Football Rankings

Standard

#108

PPR

#111

Half-PPR

#107

Superflex

#132

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Projections

Rush Yds Rush TD Rec Rec Yds Rec TD
54.8 556.8 4.3

2023 Average Draft Position (ADP)

Standard

#122

Pick 11.02

PPR

#119

Pick 10.11

Half-PPR

#120

Pick 10.12

Superflex

#120

Pick 10.12

Injury Risk

Injury Risk:
High

Depth Chart

Strength of Schedule

Easy Season Ahead
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Fantasy Playoffs
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