Gesicki, who gets a fresh start with the Patriots this season, will compete for playing time with Hunter Henry, and he has minimal Fantasy value even if he's the starter. Gesicki is only worth drafting in deep, tight-end premium leagues. It seems difficult to expect Patriots quarterback Mac Jones to support both Henry and Gesicki at a high level, and Gesicki is coming off a down campaign in 2022 when he averaged just 5.8 PPR points per game. His best season was in 2020 when he averaged 10.6 PPR points per game for Miami, but he's unlikely to reach that level of production again this season. At best, target Gesicki off the waiver wire if he starts off the season playing well.
Gesicki hit rock bottom in 2022. He never developed into a reliable fantasy option, despite a dynamic Fins offense that needed a true No. 3 target.
New England provides an opportunity to rehab his value on a one-year deal. There’s just no ceiling here beyond TE-streamer territory.
What We Learned Last YearFirst-year Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel wasn’t a big fan of Geciski. The veteran TE set four-year lows in routes run (379), targets (52), catches (32), and yards (362).He at least remained durable. Gesicki’s now played 17 games in back to back seasons.Still, he posted only one top-6 fantasy week; three inside the top-12. He finished worse than TE18 12 times.On the year, Gesicki ranked as the fantasy TE23.Among 27 TEs with 50+ targets, Gesicki ranked 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, 26th in catch rate, 26th in yards after catch per reception, and 25th in yards per route run.He was charted with only one missed tackle forced all season, per PFF.
What to Expect in 2023Gesicki signed a one-year deal in March with $3.5 million guaranteed.He’ll join a TE corps featuring Hunter Henry, who’s entering a contract year.Held back by a poorly designed offense, Henry tallied a down year in 2022: 59 targets, 41 catches, 509 yards, and two TDs on an 11.3% target share.Gesicki gets a boost from a Pats offense that looks thin elsewhere. JuJu Smith-Schuster (who also arrived in free agency) is the unit’s only notable pass catcher.HC Bill O’Brien returns to the team as a massive play-calling upgrade.We don’t anticipate a pass-happy approach, given the current personnel. Current projections have the Pats at a 58% pass rate – right around league average.Mac Jones’ ability to play closer to his rookie-year level will be key. Jones’ numbers fell off across the board in ‘22, but we’re optimistic he’ll improve in year three alongside O’Brien.
Gesicki signed with the Patriots after spending his first five NFL seasons in Miami. Though categorized as a tight end, Gesicki has aligned at wide receiver on 63% of his career snaps. That allowed him three top-12 fantasy seasons while in Miami, but he played a substantially lesser role in Mike McDaniel's offense in 2022 (53 targets after handling at least 85 the prior three seasons). Gesicki has finished four straight seasons top 7 in aDOT and was top 5 in end zone targets three of those years. He has proven super reliable, having missed only one game in his career. The 27-year-old will be limited a bit by Hunter Henry's presence, but a return to the TE1 mix is within the range of outcomes. You could do worse with a late-round flier.