Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley

WR - JAC
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190 lbs
Age: 29
College: Alabama
Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 Season Outlooks

Ridley is one of the best examples of why you shouldn't use the 40-yard dash time to determine a player's ability to win as a deep threat. When we last saw Ridley in 2021, he earned the fourth-highest air-yard target share (40%). And this is exactly why you should be excited about Ridley's Fantasy profile in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence desperately needed a WR who can beat press man coverage on the vertical plane, and Ridley is exactly that. In 2021, Ridley was also an elite separator at all levels and that earned him a top-seven target share. With more target competition in Jacksonville than he had in 2021 in Atlanta, we can't expect the same kind of target share, but with ascending quarterback play, he is a high-upside WR2 target with a solid floor. Look to target drafting him in Round 4.

Ridley has been a very good player when on the field.
He will have been off the field for nearly two years when this season begins, though, and playing his first game with a new team.
It’s easy to bet on the talent, and you’ll want pieces of a Jacksonville offense that could challenge for a top 5 spot in scoring. But Ridley has settled in as a top-20 WR in ADP.
To pay off there, he’ll either need to emerge as Jacksonville’s target leader or regain his strong efficiency of 2020. Combining those factors would give him WR1-level upside.
What We Learned Last YearThe only thing we learned about Ridley last year: His talent remains so desirable that Jacksonville traded two draft picks for him even though the wideout was suspended all season.Atlanta got a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft and a conditional 2024 pick. That selection could be as high as the second round, if Ridley signs an extension.Ridley hasn’t played since October 24, 2021. He was averaging a career-high 6.2 receptions per game but down on yardage vs. the previous two years. Ridley left that team midseason for mental-health reasons and then got suspended for 2022 for gambling.His last full season was back in 2020. Ridley finished 11th among WRs in target share that year. He also:Tied for 11th in receptionsRanked fourth in receiving yardsTied for eighth in TD catchesRanked seventh in yards per routeIt was a breakout third season for Ridley, as teammate Julio Jones missed seven of 16 games. Ridley progressed to that point through two good seasons, increasing his receptions per game and yards per catch each year.Christian Kirk led the 2022 Jaguars in target share, ranking 23rd among all WRs in that category. Zay Jones followed, ranking 33rd among WRs. Evan Engram ranked 14th among TEs, trailing Jones by 5 percentage points.What to Expect in 2023If he’s at full strength and not rusty, Ridley is probably Jacksonville’s best WR.The Jaguars were one of eight teams last year that had two WRs with target shares of 20% or higher. Engram checked in third on the team at 17.1%.Fitting Ridley into the offense will necessarily shift targets around. We currently have Ridley and Kirk projected for about the same target shares (with Ridley missing one game). Jones follows, a few percentage points behind. And Engram sits a few more percentage points behind him.There’s plenty of room for those specific shares to vary, though. We’ll be watching closely through the summer for signals of the target hierarchy as well as how often Jacksonville plans to run 3-WR sets.Last year’s Jags ranked just 18th in rate of “11” personnel (1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WRs) on first down, running that formation on 54% of plays.Swapping out Marvin Jones for Calvin Ridley should encourage more of that. Only one of Doug Pederson’s five Eagles teams exceeded 55% in that category, though.Although Ridley faces plenty of target competition, it helps that no incumbent Jaguar has proved to be a target hog at any point.Kirk did rank 11th among WRs with the 2019 Cardinals, at 24.5% over his 13 games. Otherwise, 2022 marked his largest share and beat the top numbers for other Jags (besides Ridley).

Ridley is now with the Jaguars and will make his return to the NFL after missing most of 2021 (injury) and all of 2022 (suspension). Believe it or not, Ridley is entering his age-28 season with one career top-20 fantasy campaign (fifth, back in 2020), and he was 24th in fantasy PPG during a 2021 season cut short by a Week 7 season-ending injury. Ridley is obviously a bit of an unknown after all the missed time, but he has flashed elite talent in the past and is, by all accounts, healthy and primed for a major role in the up-and-coming Jaguars offense. Ridley will have more competition for targets than he did in Atlanta, but if he's his old self, a return to the WR2 (or perhaps WR1) mix is attainable. He's risky, but worth a look in the early-to-middle rounds.

2023 Fantasy Football Rankings

Standard

#33

PPR

#30

Half-PPR

#31

Superflex

#50

2023 Fantasy Football Draft Projections

Rush Yds Rush TD Rec Rec Yds Rec TD
78.6 1032.4 5.9

2023 Average Draft Position (ADP)

Standard

#42

Pick 4.06

PPR

#33

Pick 3.09

Half-PPR

#31

Pick 3.07

Superflex

#51

Pick 5.03

Injury Risk

Injury Risk:
Low

Depth Chart

Strength of Schedule

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Fantasy Playoffs
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