Josh Allen

There’s no real mystery to Allen’s fantasy outlook. He’s led QBs in fantasy points per game since Buffalo acquired Stefon Diggs in 2020.

Diggs returns for 2023, while Allen’s overall supporting cast looks improved following the selection of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. Mix in Allen’s rushing upside, and he remains an elite QB1.

What We Learned Last YearAllen finished as the QB1 in points per game (29.5).He scored as a top-three fantasy QB in five weeks last season. He finished outside the top-12 QBs only twice.Allen didn’t miss a game due to injury, although he played only 16 games due to the Bills-Bengals cancellation.Allen played through a Week 9 partially torn ulnar collateral ligament (right elbow) and “associated tendon and muscle injuries,” per NFL Network. He received a plasma-rich injection and wore a brace to aid the injury.On the year, among 24 QBs with 400+ dropbacks, Allen ranked third in Pro Football Focus passing grade, tied for fourth in yards per attempt, and finished 18th in adjusted completion rate.From Week 10 on, Allen’s PFF passing grade, YPA, and adjusted completion rate reach declined. Allen set a career-high with 63 scrambles. He nearly set a career-high in rushing yards (762). He posted seven rushing scores and now has at least six in each NFL season.Buffalo's O-line ranked 4th in pass block win rate (67%), behind only Kansas City, Chicago, and Cleveland.Under new OC Ken Dorsey, Buffalo ranked 13th league-wide in pass rate; 8th in attempts per game.Stefon Diggs played all 16 games. But Allen never got a breakout season from Gabe Davis, and this unit lacked pass-catching depth behind Diggs.
What to Expect in 2023The Bills return key offensive pieces in OC Ken Dorsey, WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, TE Dawson Knox, and LT Dion Dawkins.Buffalo lost WR Isaiah McKenzie but upgraded the unit overall by adding WR Deonte Harty and TE/big slot Dalton Kincaid.Kincaid is the real prize here. At 6’4, 246 pounds, he projects as a pro-ready asset, especially in the red zone. This O-line looks improved following the arrival of guards Connor McGovern and O'Cyrus Torrence. Might we see fewer rush attempts from Allen? Here’s HC Sean McDermott in March. "I don't think that's a healthy way to play quarterback in this league and it's undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style. We have to get that adjusted and it's never going to go completely away, but it has to get where it's workable." Allen enters year two with OC Ken Dorsey, his former QB coach. Continuity remains strong all-around from a Bills offense that needs tweaks over wholesale changes.

Allen is entering his sixth NFL campaign after finishing no lower than second in fantasy points among QBs each of the last three seasons. The 27-year-old was his usual dominant self in 2022, posting 13 top-10 fantasy outings, which tied Patrick Mahomes for the most (in one fewer game). Allen continues to get the job done through the air (no lower than eighth in passing yards and TDs each of the last three seasons) and on the ground (no lower than seventh among QBs in rushing yards and TDs all five seasons). Allen's supporting cast is a bit underwhelming behind Stefon Diggs, but his dual-threat game in Buffalo's pass-heavy offense locks him in as an elite fantasy option.