Some will say that the fantasy football community is saturated with content. While I tend to have an unbiased opinion on the matter I will agree that some things are very repetitive. The most obvious thing that sticks out to me is the DFS "picks" content. Every blog, website, and social media page is telling you who to pick. "But these are MY lineups! Why should YOU tell me who to play?"
So instead of another article giving you the no-brainer picks, I figured I'd give you something to actually ponder this week. Afterall one of the biggest edges left in the daily fantasy world is the ability to think for yourself. So while I might name drop a few players, most of what follows will be open ended letting you decide on how you can create a winning roster.
Slate Views, Chalk, Leverage, Hindsights
This slate, like every slate, is unique. Week 6 gives us our first condensed slate of the year with our first set of bye weeks and the usual Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night games not on the main slate; we are presented with 10 games. There are only a couple of teams with a Vegas-implied team total above 27.5 with the majority of the rest all clustered within a four point margin. This means the field will likely focus on stacking and building around one or two games. Since there are only 10 games and the rostership will be narrowed we can assume that the chalk will only be chalkier. But fear not! This kind of week also provides us sharper folk with more leverage to gain since there really will not be any clear "top plays".
We are also plagued with a TON of injuries and players left with the questionable tag before Sunday. From a macro perspective we can assume the public will flock to backup players due to perceived value opened up by injuries. After examining a few different roster constructions, the chalk build this week is pretty straight forward: 1 Value RB, 1 Mid-Priced RB, High-Priced TE, with most likely a Higher Priced QB. Leaving room for 1 High Dollar WR, 1 Mid-Range WR, and a couple value guys to fill out the roster.
With a chalk build in mind, we should think about ways to leverage our builds without sacrificing ceiling or overall value. This brings us to my favorite part of DFS...theory! To gain an edge on our opponents we need to identify the likeliest way they will construct rosters (chalk build) and then work around it while still constructing rosters with enough upside to win.
KC/WAS: This game will be popular and it should be. What are ways to build around this game and still gain leverage? Most rosters will utilize 1 of Kelce/Hill. But how many will have both with Mahomes? This leaves you with little salary to work with but if you can manage it you are off to a good start. Take note that on the other side of this game Terry McLaurin's Status is up in the air. If he's out that leaves WAS with the likes of Dyami Brown, Adam Humphries, and DeAndre Carter all of which are sub 3.5k! Consider that KC scores with efficiency and not so much volume. This means you can plant your flag on either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce since both rarely reach ceiling games together. Don't forget J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson ;)
DET/CIN: On paper this seems gross. But for DFS we want points where no one else is getting them! Sure, parts of this game will be rostered as one-offs, but a full stack of Burrow/Chase/Higgins bringing it back with one of D'Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, or Amon-Ra St. Brown? Throw in a touch of Mixon and you could essentially gather all potential points from an entire game that low-key has shoot-out written all over it. Even as a secondary stack I'd like parts of this game. Bad offense will always beat bad defense. The special sauce comes when you play Mixon AND Swift. No one likes to play RB's against each other but the correlation isn't as bad as public perception
These are potential outcomes the field won't be on going into Sunday. No one would be surprised if they did come to fruition.
Hopefully the theories and scenarios I've laid out get those minds churnin so that you can construct some tournament winning lineups. Two of the most important things to remember is that a lineup with some chalk is ok as long as you surround it with low rostered leverage plays without sacrificing ceiling, and remember to be unique and think for yourself! Good luck this weekend!
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